A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.
Trending News
2 days, 21 hours ago

A bond selloff is rocking the world. You might want to take the other side.

Live Mint  

Wall Street is really worried about bonds. On Friday, a jobs report that blew past expectations pushed yields on 10-year Treasurys to 4.772%, the highest close since Nov. 1, 2023, and those on 30-year paper to 4.962%. Rather, it might be the result of investors applying a higher discount or “term premium" to hold long-term bonds, estimates by the Federal Reserve suggest. Three out of four times, yield curves steepen for the opposite reason, historical data shows: A fall in short-term yields driven by central banks cutting rates very fast. This term premium still isn’t huge: It is reportedly adding 0.6 percentage point to 10-year yields, when the historical average is 1.5 percentage points.

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History of this topic

India bond yields to track rupee’s moves for direction
Trending News
1 day, 7 hours ago

India bond yields to track rupee’s moves for direction

Live Mint  

By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI, Jan 14 - Indian government bond yields are expected to be largely unchanged in early deals on Tuesday as it awaits the direction of the local currency, while U.S. yields remain elevated on dwindling bets of a rate cut in the world's largest economy. The Indian rupee ended at a fresh record low of 86.5750 and …

Why bond yields are surging around the world
1 day, 22 hours ago

Why bond yields are surging around the world

Live Mint  

Government-bond yields have surged across the developed world in recent weeks, jarring stocks and pressuring indebted countries. Yields on U.S. Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall, got their first big boost in October with the release of strong monthly jobs data that wiped away fears of a looming recession. Yields on ultrasafe government debt are largely determined by investors’ …

Why global bond markets are convulsing
2 days, 6 hours ago

Why global bond markets are convulsing

Live Mint  

Almost everywhere, government-bond yields are rising fast. In a world where consumer prices are rising quickly, investors demand higher bond yields both because they expect central banks’ policy rates to stay higher for longer, and to compensate for the anticipated erosion of the principal’s purchasing power. Across theG10 nominal wages are still increasing at 4.5% a year, which is probably …

US Bond Yield Surge Prompts Some Companies to Delay Debt Sales
5 days, 14 hours ago

US Bond Yield Surge Prompts Some Companies to Delay Debt Sales

Live Mint  

A handful of companies have held back on selling high-grade corporate bonds in the US after yields have climbed in the last week close to their highest levels since the middle of last year, boosting potential borrowing costs. The average yield on a US high-grade corporate bond was 5.41% at Wednesday’s close, hovering around its highest level since July and …

Households may face a further income squeeze, say experts
5 days, 19 hours ago

Households may face a further income squeeze, say experts

The Independent  

Sign up to our free money newsletter for investment analysis and expert advice to help you build wealth Sign up to our free money email for help building your wealth Sign up to our free money email for help building your wealth SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Go to …

The stock market embraced higher yields. Now it fears them.
5 days, 21 hours ago

The stock market embraced higher yields. Now it fears them.

Live Mint  

The 10-year bond yield came within a whisker of its high from last April on Wednesday morning, and stocks, especially smaller stocks, didn’t like it one bit. They have shifted from thinking that higher Treasury yields are just an unwelcome side effect of the stronger growth promised by president-elect Donald Trump, to worrying that higher borrowing costs might end up …

Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank
Trending News
1 week ago

Last Time Bond Yields Surged Like This, Stock Markets Sank

Live Mint  

There’s room for stock markets to fall further as bond yields approach levels that have been painful for equities in recent years. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to levels just shy of 4.7%, the highest since April after an almost uninterrupted surge of more than one percentage point since mid-September. “Equity/bond yield correlations have turned negative again,” Goldman Sachs …

US yields rise on strong data amid supply
Trending News
1 week ago

US yields rise on strong data amid supply

Live Mint  

* US job openings grow, exceeding forecasts * Market anticipates Fed rate cuts will be less than previously expected * Fiscal trajectory has pushed up long-term yields By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Jan 7 - Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit an eight-month high on Tuesday after better than expected data pointed to a strong economy and as the Treasury auctioned …

Wall Street slumps as good news for the economy is once again bad for stocks
1 week, 1 day ago

Wall Street slumps as good news for the economy is once again bad for stocks

LA Times  

Good news for the U.S. economy is back to being bad for Wall Street, and the stock market slumped Tuesday following better-than-expected reports on the job market and business activity. But such a solid economy could also keep up pressure on inflation, and it could make the Federal Reserve less likely to deliver the cuts to interest rates that Wall …

Longer-dated yields rise amid supply
1 week, 1 day ago

Longer-dated yields rise amid supply

Live Mint  

By Karen Brettell NEW YORK, Jan 6 - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit the highest since May on Monday while the 30-year yield posted a 14-month high before the Treasury's auction of longer-dated debt over the next two days. Trump's aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but only cover certain sectors deemed critical …

India bond yields seen little changed; 2025 starts with supply pressure
1 week, 6 days ago

India bond yields seen little changed; 2025 starts with supply pressure

Live Mint  

By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI, Jan 2 - Indian government bond yields are likely to be little changed in early deals on Thursday, as traders await fresh supply a day later. "The benchmark bond yield could move to par levels, but any major rise in the yield beyond 6.79%-6.80% seems unlikely for today," the trader said. Bond yields declined in 2024, …

India bond yields flat in thin activity before year-end
2 weeks, 2 days ago

India bond yields flat in thin activity before year-end

Live Mint  

By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI, Dec 30 - Indian government bond yields were little changed on Monday, even as U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, with market participants seeking a firm direction towards the end of the year. The daily average trading volume has dropped to around 381 billion rupees over the last two weeks from 719 billion rupees in the prior …

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor
3 weeks, 1 day ago

Treasury Yields Edge Higher With Long-Term Debt Out of Favor

Live Mint  

-- Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders continue to see a slower pace of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve next year and the potential worsening of country’s fiscal backdrop under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. The moves Monday built on a rise in yields last week following US central bank officials latest quarterly projections — dubbed the dot …

Indian bond yields inch higher on profit taking; debt sale eyed
1 month, 1 week ago

Indian bond yields inch higher on profit taking; debt sale eyed

Live Mint  

By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI, Dec 3 - Indian government bond yields moved marginally higher in early trading on Tuesday, as traders cashed in profits from a two-session price rally after weaker-than-expected economic growth data, while a fresh debt supply was in focus. The yield declined by 10 basis points since data on Friday showed India's economic growth slowed much more …

India bond yields inch up ahead of debt sale on Friday
1 month, 3 weeks ago

India bond yields inch up ahead of debt sale on Friday

Live Mint  

By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI, Nov 21 - Indian government bond yields trended marginally higher in early deals on Thursday as U.S. yields stayed elevated, while market participants awaited fresh supply through a weekly debt auction on Friday. New Delhi will sell benchmark bond worth 220 billion rupees, which will help increase liquidity and trading in this paper, as well as …

Sharply rising bond rates could stem Wall Street's 'relief rally' and push interest rate cuts further into the future
2 months, 1 week ago

Sharply rising bond rates could stem Wall Street's 'relief rally' and push interest rate cuts further into the future

ABC  

The apparent roar of approval was almost deafening. It's a world that, down the track, promises a return of inflation and permanently higher interest rates as America shifts to a more protectionist global stance that punishes China and, by extension, hurts Australia. Since mid-September, US money markets almost inexplicably have begun forecasting a rise in interest rates. The bond is …

Bond Yields Soar After Fed's Interest Rate Cut, Raising Concerns
2 months, 1 week ago

Bond Yields Soar After Fed's Interest Rate Cut, Raising Concerns

Live Mint  

US bond yields have surged after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with the 10-year bond rising by more than 60 basis points since the last policy meeting. This surge has been attributed to several factors, including data surprises suggesting a stronger economy, political 'betting market' movements, and a backtracking of policy signals from the Fed. While the relative importance …

Treasuries Surge as Traders Bet Big on a Fed Rescue Mode
5 months, 1 week ago

Treasuries Surge as Traders Bet Big on a Fed Rescue Mode

Live Mint  

Bond traders are piling into bets that the US economy is on the verge of deteriorating so quickly that the Federal Reserve will need to start easing monetary policy aggressively to head off a recession. “Treasuries are a good buy here because I do think the economy will continue to slow.” Bond traders have repeatedly misjudged where interest rates have …

Are Indian stock markets about to crash? Keep an eye on US data
9 months, 1 week ago

Are Indian stock markets about to crash? Keep an eye on US data

New Indian Express  

For most of 2022 and 2023, stock markets across the world were kept under a tight leash by the US Federal Reserve, with its continuous interest rate hikes and relentlessly dismal commentary. This so-called 'Fed pivot' came as a shock to many, as the Fed had consistently maintained a tough stance on inflation, vowing to keep interest rates high until …

A Soft Landing in the U.S. Could Be Hard for Everyone Else
1 year, 3 months ago

A Soft Landing in the U.S. Could Be Hard for Everyone Else

Live Mint  

The U.S. economy might be heading for a soft landing. Surprising strength in the U.S. economy poses a threat to the rest of the world, portending higher interest rates for longer and a stronger dollar that will weigh on other countries’ growth. Fragmentation Strong U.S. economic data, including September’s blockbuster hiring report, helped send Treasury yields to 16-year highs as …

Why are bond yields surging around the global markets? - Explained
1 year, 3 months ago

Why are bond yields surging around the global markets? - Explained

Live Mint  

Over the past six months, the international bonds yield has been on a haywire. Sustained expectations of inflation are likely to keep yields above this conventional range, potentially detrimental to economic growth and the stock market, as both household and corporate spending face constraints. The prevailing high bond yields are primarily driven by the market demands for premiums when investing …

Why are global bond yields rising?
1 year, 4 months ago

Why are global bond yields rising?

Live Mint  

Global bond yields are flaring up to the levels unseen in years, drawing support from strong macroeconomic data that makes a case for continuing with the monetary tightening policy through interest rate hikes. The US treasury yields have climbed almost 40 bps month-to-date amid rising bets that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. However, while the 10-year US yield …

Global Equities, US Yields Fall Ahead of Debt Ceiling Vote
1 year, 7 months ago

Global Equities, US Yields Fall Ahead of Debt Ceiling Vote

News 18  

Global equities and U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday as risk-off sentiment dominated markets, with investors focused on a much-anticipated vote in Congress on raising the U.S. debt ceiling. The U.S. dollar rose to a more than two-month high after data showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in April, pointing to persistent strength in the labour market that could …

As Bond Market Turbulence Eases, Companies Borrow Again
1 year, 9 months ago

As Bond Market Turbulence Eases, Companies Borrow Again

Live Mint  

Trading in U.S. government bonds has become much less volatile in recent weeks, helping fuel a rebound in corporate borrowing after a chaotic stretch that followed Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in early March. Daily moves in the 2-year Treasury yield averaged 0.22 percentage point from March 9, when the run on SVB started, through March 27, the day that the …

Bright start for bonds to new year eases market pressures
1 year, 11 months ago

Bright start for bonds to new year eases market pressures

Live Mint  

Another strong week for the U.S. bond market is giving investors increasing hope that they can turn the page on a brutal 2022. Last week’s consumer-price index report was then also encouraging, hinting at a continued slowdown in the type of services inflation that Fed officials have spotlighted as particularly important. Last year, the S&P 500 fell over 19%, while …

Bond yields little changed after recent fall, Friday’s debt sale eyed
2 years, 1 month ago

Bond yields little changed after recent fall, Friday’s debt sale eyed

Live Mint  

Indian government bond yields ended little changed on Thursday, amid consolidation after the recent fall, while traders now await a fresh supply of debt via weekly auction on Friday. The benchmark Indian 10-year government bond yield ended at 7.2808%, after closing at 7.2736% on Wednesday. Bond yields eased earlier in the session, following a drop in U.S. yields and oil …

The UK just stepped back from the brink. But there’s more trouble ahead
2 years, 2 months ago

The UK just stepped back from the brink. But there’s more trouble ahead

CNN  

London CNN Business — The decision by Jeremy Hunt, the new UK finance minister, to jettison the bulk of Prime Minister Liz Truss’ much-maligned plans to boost growth has come as a huge relief to investors, easing their worries about the sustainability of government finances. It said it sees “additional downside risks to growth” following Hunt’s announcements on Monday. “The …

3-Year Bond Yields Lowest In Over A Month: What It Means, What Investors Should Do
2 years, 6 months ago

3-Year Bond Yields Lowest In Over A Month: What It Means, What Investors Should Do

News 18  

India’s benchmark 10-year bond yield on Monday fell to its lowest level since May 27 to 7.355 per cent. A market expert said the ease in bond yield is a positive news for the economy and the markets as the rising bond yields raises the companies’ cost of borrowing. Motilal Oswal said that if the bond yields go up then …

Bond Yield At 3-Year High: Where to Invest and How to Find Sectors? A Guide for Investors
2 years, 9 months ago

Bond Yield At 3-Year High: Where to Invest and How to Find Sectors? A Guide for Investors

News 18  

India’s benchmark 10-year government securities rose to a three-year high of 7.278 per cent on Wednesday, after the official data showed that the retail inflation in March stood at a 17-month high of 6.95 per cent. This situation negatively affects the equity markets also as high bond yields make the cost of debt higher for companies, thus affecting their valuation. …

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINED: Why Bond Yields In US May Be Warning Of A Recession

News 18  

One of the more reliable warning signals for an economic recession is starting to shine. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how the bond market is feeling about the US economy’s long-term prospects. When yields for short-term Treasurys are higher than yields for long-term ones, market watchers call it an “inverted yield curve.” And when that chart has …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession
2 years, 9 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why bond yields may be warning of a recession

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The “yield curve” is watched for clues to how …

Dollar hits rough patch after strong start to 2021
3 years, 9 months ago

Dollar hits rough patch after strong start to 2021

Live Mint  

The dollar has slipped this month as the Federal Reserve stuck to its message that it won’t raise interest rates soon despite forecasts that the U.S. economy will recover faster than its peers. The dollar has tended to fall against other currencies in April over the past 10 years, Mr. Brennan said, as a result of disappointing economic data such …

Surge in bond yields could drive growth off track: RBI
3 years, 9 months ago

Surge in bond yields could drive growth off track: RBI

Live Mint  

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday warned that rising bond yields could undermine the fragile global economic recovery, rendering most economies unable to tolerate high interest rates. In its latest currency and finance bulletin, RBI also pointed to the stubbornly high yields in the Indian bond market, cautioning that rising yields could prompt central banks to boost bond-buying. The …

Powell: Higher inflation temporary, no rate hikes in sight
3 years, 10 months ago

Powell: Higher inflation temporary, no rate hikes in sight

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested Thursday that inflation will pick up in the coming months but that it would likely prove temporary and not enough for the Fed to alter its record-low interest rate policies. Stock investors, too, dumped shares in the midst of Powell’s remarks, in which he suggested that the Fed would need to see …

Global bonds are suffering the worst start to a year since 2013
3 years, 10 months ago

Global bonds are suffering the worst start to a year since 2013

Live Mint  

US investors return Tuesday from the Presidents’ Day holiday to find the reflation trade in full force and global bond markets in retreat. It’s the worst start to a year for the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index since 2013. Former New York Fed President William Dudley last week outlined reasons why the US central bank might have to pull back …

Plunging yields force investors and Fed to rethink strategy
4 years, 10 months ago

Plunging yields force investors and Fed to rethink strategy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The response in stock markets to the growing risk from the coronavirus has been swift and fierce. The plunging yields across bond markets could hamstring the Federal Reserve’s ability to respond to a future recession. The shrunken bond yields will also make it harder for those who invest in them to earn much income: The return on the …

The 10-year Treasury yield just dropped below 1% for the first time in history
4 years, 10 months ago

The 10-year Treasury yield just dropped below 1% for the first time in history

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped below 1% for the first time in history on Tuesday, as investors grew increasingly worried about the novel coronavirus outbreak. Lower interest rates Treasuries also express investors’ interest rate expectations. So if the 10-year Treasury yield falls, the market tends to expect lower rates in the future. The amount …

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation
5 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | The world could be staring at a long era of deflation

Live Mint  

There are three games of chicken currently in play in the US. The second is associated with US President Donald Trump’s constant dissatisfaction with the US Federal Reserve on the need to cut real interest rates more aggressively, though a rate cut happened last quarter and another seems in sight. The third, which seems more perplexing, is the Fed’s internal …

Echoes of 1930s in trade-cum-currency war
5 years, 4 months ago

Echoes of 1930s in trade-cum-currency war

Live Mint  

Even as some Indian investors cheer the rollback of contentious budget proposals by the finance ministry, an escalation of the US-China conflict seems to have spooked markets worldwide. As the monetary stimulus provided by central banks of advanced economies have run their course without lifting the real economy significantly, and the two major global powers have continued to escalate their …

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?
5 years, 4 months ago

Inverted yield curve: Does the bond market really signal we’re heading for a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. An "inverted yield curve" may …

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises
5 years, 5 months ago

The bond market smells recession as global stress rises

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Compared to the free-swinging and sometimes emotional stock market, the bond market is supposed to be the sober and measured one. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve began in December 2005, two years before the Great Recession tore through the global economy. Some market watchers also say the yield curve may be less …

Gold climbs to six-year high above $1,500, bond yields collapse on trade war fears
5 years, 5 months ago

Gold climbs to six-year high above $1,500, bond yields collapse on trade war fears

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Frazzled investors are rushing to buy gold and government bonds as fears of a global recession, sparked by a trade war, grow more real. The drop in yields is getting scary.” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group Taken together, the developments suggest that investors and central bankers are bracing for economic and …

S&P 500 and Nasdaq erase losses after bond market scare
5 years, 5 months ago

S&P 500 and Nasdaq erase losses after bond market scare

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The Dow and the broader US stock market had another volatile day as Wall Street investors fear the US-China trade war will inflict broad damage on the global economy. “Whilst we can be sure that global central banks will step up to the plate to alleviate the impact of the trade war — most likely …

Bond yields are plunging around the globe. How low can they go?
5 years, 5 months ago

Bond yields are plunging around the globe. How low can they go?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Investors are so nervous about the trade war with China that they are frantically scooping up US government bonds and pushing yields sharply lower in the process. Yields are falling fast Investors were rushing to bonds as stocks plunged following the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China after China’s currency …

Bond markets get cold feet as India rally faces Narendra Modi’s budget test
5 years, 6 months ago

Bond markets get cold feet as India rally faces Narendra Modi’s budget test

Live Mint  

Mumbai: India’s bond rally is predicted to stall as investors turn jittery about the government’s fiscal discipline before next month’s union budget. “The key concern for the market will be the budget and the fiscal deficit number.” Market watchers are also scrutinizing technical indicators that are signaling bonds may have become too expensive after their six-week rally. “We remain cognizant …

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters
5 years, 7 months ago

Bond rally: The bond market is freaking out. Here’s why that matters

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The bond market is once again sending a big fat warning sign about the US economy. Inverted yield curve is often a sign of bad things to come The yield on the 3-month US bond is currently higher than the 10-year, hovering around 2.35%. Yields sliding in rest of the world But bond yields around …

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning
5 years, 9 months ago

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning

NPR  

Stock Indexes Drop As Bond Market Flashes Recession Warning Enlarge this image toggle caption Spencer Platt/Getty Images Spencer Platt/Getty Images The stock market tumbled Friday as investors digested an ominous warning sign: Interest rates on long-term government debt fell below the rate on short-term bills. "We don't see that occur that often, but when it does, it's almost always bad …

Opinion | The $22 billion that’s spooking India’s bond market
5 years, 10 months ago

Opinion | The $22 billion that’s spooking India’s bond market

Live Mint  

It comes as little surprise that the country recorded its slowest GDP growth rate in five quarters, with more weakness expected in the three months ended 31 March. India Ratings & Research Pvt., a unit of Fitch Ratings Inc., calls it “extra budgetary resource", a euphemism for public spending via borrowings that are, for all practical purposes, sovereign liabilities. The …

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