Data fine, interpretation faulty: Why IMD gets forecasts wrong

On January 7, in its three-day forecast, the India Meteorological Department warned of “moderate rainfall across central and northwest India” on January 8 and 9 and issued an orange alert for Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Rajasthan, predicting rain and thunderstorms in parts of these states. M Rajeevan, former secretary of the ministry of earth sciences, explained that the models being used by IMD have improved, and are currently at par with the technology being used in the US, UK and Japan — countries that are known to produce the most accurate weather forecasts in the world. There is a term called ‘predictability’, which means the accuracy with which we can forecast, it is higher for three-day and five-day forecasts, but for seasonal forecasts, the predictability becomes low.” Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, at private forecaster Skymet agreed and said forecasts can be improved by training weathermen along with improving the technology and increasing ground stations. There is always scope for making forecasts better and more accurate.” But the IMD official cited in the first instance believes that it makes no sense to compare the forecasting accuracy of weather offices across the US, UK, and India.