Data fine, interpretation faulty: Why IMD gets forecasts wrong
On January 7, in its three-day forecast, the India Meteorological Department warned of “moderate rainfall across central and northwest India” on January 8 and 9 and issued an orange alert for Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Rajasthan, predicting rain and thunderstorms in parts of these states. M Rajeevan, former secretary of the ministry of earth sciences, explained that the models being used by IMD have improved, and are currently at par with the technology being used in the US, UK and Japan — countries that are known to produce the most accurate weather forecasts in the world. There is a term called ‘predictability’, which means the accuracy with which we can forecast, it is higher for three-day and five-day forecasts, but for seasonal forecasts, the predictability becomes low.” Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, at private forecaster Skymet agreed and said forecasts can be improved by training weathermen along with improving the technology and increasing ground stations. There is always scope for making forecasts better and more accurate.” But the IMD official cited in the first instance believes that it makes no sense to compare the forecasting accuracy of weather offices across the US, UK, and India.
Discover Related
IMD warns of heatwave, scorching days ahead for Delhi, Mumbai and THESE states: See full forecast
Weather today: IMD issues heatwave warning in Gujarat, forecasts heavy rainfall in THESE states over next 2 days
India gears up for heatwave days: How do they occur?
Bengaluru braces for rain and strong winds; IMD warns of thunderstorms across Karnataka
IMD forecasts widespread rainfall over Karnataka over next few days
April-June to be hotter than usual, more heatwave days likely in many States: IMD
April-June to be hotter than usual, more heatwave days likely in many states: IMD
Severe Heatwave Grips Andhra Pradesh, Alert Issued For 223 Mandals
IMD warns of double the heatwave days this summer in Northwest India
IMD warns of ‘double heatwave’ in this part of India from March-May 2025
Temperatures likely to rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius over NW India in next 2 days: IMD
How IMD's new model will sharpen weather forecast for farmers
Thunderstorm alert to parts of Telangana for Friday
IMD predicts thunderstorms, rain for Kolkata, parts of Bengal, Odisha in next few days
IMD predicts heatwave for Karnataka; rain likely to bring respite to Odisha
IMD predicts rain for Delhi-NCR, parts of north India on Holi | Weather updates
IMD predicts more rain, snow in parts of Himachal
Weather update: IMD predicts rainfall in these states till March 15 due to cyclones, check complete forecast
IMD predicts relief for Mumbaikars reeling from heatwave. Expect dip in temp by…
Normal monsoon likely as neutral El Nino forecast
Himachal Pradesh: IMD issues orange alert for rain, snow on March 3