Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle

CNN  

In a historic shift, Americans can now place political wagers on who will win the White House. More than $100 million in election bets have been traded on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market that was given the green light to offer election betting after a federal appeals court upheld a lower court's order that made way for legal political gambling. While the platforms have marketed their odds as election forecasts and claim that they allow their users to hedge their bets on different outcomes, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which sought to block Kalshi's political contracts, has warned that they could degrade public perception of the democratic process.

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History of this topic

Betting markets eye expansion after predicting Trump's win
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Betting markets eye expansion after predicting Trump's win

Salon  

On election eve, Arlene Battishill, a retired history professor and political analyst known as "Dr. Arlene Unfiltered" to her social media followers, picked up a bottle of champagne, confident in the data across different states that showed a potential Kamala Harris win. Related FBI raids home of Polymarket CEO The results, supporters say, bolster the case for prediction markets as …

How whizzkid Shayne Copland's startup Polymarket beat the polls to correctly predict Trump's win
1 month, 1 week ago

How whizzkid Shayne Copland's startup Polymarket beat the polls to correctly predict Trump's win

Daily Mail  

A cryptocurrency betting site run by a baby-faced boss were hailed as being 'more accurate than polls' for predicting Donald Trump's election win. The prediction prodigy Shane Coplan and his start-up Polymarket turned out to be more accurate than pollsters as traders bet on an easy Trump victory. Prediction prodigy Shane Coplan and his start-up Polymarket turned out to be …

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
1 month, 2 weeks ago

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t

CNN  

A version of this story appeared in CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter. But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. The emergence of that so-called Trump whale sparked intense scrutiny of Polymarket over the past several weeks, because it sure looked possible that an anonymous deep-pocketed investor was trying to …

Election Will Produce a Split Congress: Pangaea's Haines
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Election Will Produce a Split Congress: Pangaea's Haines

Bloomberg  

00:00 Do you have more of an idea of when this election could be called? But I don't think this is going to be a situation where we're going to know with a great deal of certainty tonight. You're unknowns are known, as Don Rumsfeld would say, you know what you got with polls, You got they are what they …

Gamblers spend more than $3.3bn on Polymarket betting on 2024 presidential election, mostly for Trump
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Gamblers spend more than $3.3bn on Polymarket betting on 2024 presidential election, mostly for Trump

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Get our free Inside Washington email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Gamblers have spent more than $3.3bn on the betting site …

Odds on Donald Trump winning US election soar to 62% hours after polls open as Americans pile in on The Don beating Kamala
Top News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Odds on Donald Trump winning US election soar to 62% hours after polls open as Americans pile in on The Don beating Kamala

Daily Mail  

Punters have piled in on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, with odds of a Republican victory standing at 62 percent on one betting platform. Punters have piled in on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, with odds of a Republican victory standing at 62 percent on one betting platform On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, billions of …

Voters reveal who they'd place money on winning election - as mesmerizing Times Square live ad reveals bets
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Voters reveal who they'd place money on winning election - as mesmerizing Times Square live ad reveals bets

Daily Mail  

Voters told DailyMail.com who they'd put their money on between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the election Tuesday. Voters told DailyMail.com who they'd put their money on between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to win the election Tuesday A couple of other voters did say Harris but had to be qualified with them either already supporting her or …

How a French gambler’s huge bet spiked Trump’s odds on Polymarket – and why it may threaten democracy
1 month, 3 weeks ago

How a French gambler’s huge bet spiked Trump’s odds on Polymarket – and why it may threaten democracy

The Independent  

Over the last three months, four accounts on a popular gambling site have placed thousands of bets totalling more than $50 million on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election next week. Some fear that Trump’s massively inflated betting odds could be used by his supporters as evidence that the election was stolen, while regulators have warned that gambling sites …

The latest betting odds on Trump vs Harris
1 month, 3 weeks ago

The latest betting odds on Trump vs Harris

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} With …

Here’s why you shouldn’t put your faith - or money - on election betting markets
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Here’s why you shouldn’t put your faith - or money - on election betting markets

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Betting …

Man who's taken $92 million in 2024 presidential election bets reveals why his platform is a better predictor than polls
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Man who's taken $92 million in 2024 presidential election bets reveals why his platform is a better predictor than polls

Daily Mail  

Opinion polls say the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump comes down to a coin flip. Don't be, says Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, America's first legal online election prediction wagering platform, which has taken in more than $92 million in bets tied to the 2024 race. Kalshi's presidential election market gives Trump a striking 26-point lead over Vice …

Americans bet $100 million on Trump v. Harris, but at what cost?
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Americans bet $100 million on Trump v. Harris, but at what cost?

NPR  

Americans bet $100 million on Trump v. Harris, but at what cost? toggle caption Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images An election betting "Bet on the US election," the ad for Kalshi said as Trump spoke on stage. Sponsor Message The company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, told NPR his election market — which shows a 63% chance of Trump winning as of Tuesday …

‘That’s a good thing for democracy’: Is gambling making politics fun?
2 months ago

‘That’s a good thing for democracy’: Is gambling making politics fun?

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “I think if more people put their money …

US Presidential polls 2024: Will Donald Trump be next US President? Here's what betting markets predict
2 months ago

US Presidential polls 2024: Will Donald Trump be next US President? Here's what betting markets predict

Live Mint  

With under three weeks until the presidential election, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in prediction markets, showing a 60% chance of victory. Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from the major markets, shows Trump has a 57% chance, the largest margin in his favour since 29 July, up from about 48% at the end of September. Groups supporting Trump and …

Four mystery accounts dished out $30 million of crypto on bets that Trump would win White House
2 months ago

Four mystery accounts dished out $30 million of crypto on bets that Trump would win White House

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Get our free Inside Washington email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. While National polling averages by FiveThirtyEight show Harris with a 2.5-point lead over Trump, …

Betting markets reveal whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is surging ahead for the first time since the 2024 presidential debate
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Betting markets reveal whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is surging ahead for the first time since the 2024 presidential debate

Daily Mail  

The odds now favor Donald Trump in betting markets over Kamala Harris, as international wagerers put their money behind a potential return to the White House by the former president. Trump hasn't led Harris for more than a month in the RealClearPolitics average of betting markets that allow wagers on the winner. Even that average likely overstates Harris's position, because …

Kalshi: Federal appeals court allows prediction market to offer US election betting
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Kalshi: Federal appeals court allows prediction market to offer US election betting

CNN  

CNN — A federal appeals court in Washington, DC, on Wednesday allowed a prediction market to offer election betting, denying a government watchdog’s request to halt a ruling that made way for legal political gambling in the United States. A panel of three judges unanimously ruled Wednesday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which had argued that the wagers were …

Actually, Maybe Degenerate Gamblers Can’t Predict Elections
3 months ago

Actually, Maybe Degenerate Gamblers Can’t Predict Elections

Slate  

It’s been a huge month for all the degenerate gamblers hoping to cash in on the United States’ elections. But the CFTC quickly filed an emergency motion seeking to block those markets while it appealed the decision, a situation that Kalshi claimed would be “devastating” for the company’s business, in part by driving would-be customers to rival apps like the …

How Polymarket and Nate Silver Want to Reshape Political Forecasting
4 months, 1 week ago

How Polymarket and Nate Silver Want to Reshape Political Forecasting

Slate  

Whether you recognize it as a “betting app,” a “predictions market,” or a “bunch of degenerate gamblers trying to make a buck off anything and everything,” political betting has become an intractable feature of every race. Founder and CEO Shayne Coplan promises to make Polymarket an “unbiased” and “alternative news source” that can counter our “misinformation pandemic” by offering “financial …

Election Betting Should Be Legal
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Election Betting Should Be Legal

Slate  

On today’s episode of Hear Me Out: placing bets. Betting on the results of elections is illegal in the United States – though that hasn’t stopped sportsbooks overseas from cashing in. And that doesn’t mean that Americans haven’t placed bets on election results in the U.S., either; that’s a tradition that dates back centuries. There’s a push now to make …

Donald Trump or Joe Biden? US stock market expert predicts presidential poll's surprising result basis indices movement
7 months ago

Donald Trump or Joe Biden? US stock market expert predicts presidential poll's surprising result basis indices movement

Hindustan Times  

So who's winning US election, scheduled for 5 November 2024? On the back of a stiff neck on neck competition between Joe Biden and Donald Trump stock market has proven to be a reliable indicator in the past. Recent surveys of prominent prediction markets have shown a wide range of probabilities regarding President Joe Biden's chances of winning re-election, fluctuating …

There’s a Glorious Website Where You Can Bet on Politics, and the U.S. Is About to Kill It
2 years, 4 months ago

There’s a Glorious Website Where You Can Bet on Politics, and the U.S. Is About to Kill It

Slate  

Everybody knows that money talks. As a user since PredictIt’s first year in operation, I have participated in dozens of markets as a hobby—and walked away with thousands of dollars in winnings for my trouble. Many topics in politics command broad but mostly shallow attention; the theory behind PredictIt is that betting markets incentivize deep, reliable knowledge that can cut …

How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters
54 years, 11 months ago

How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters

Slate  

On Dec. 9, Donald Trump tweeted something incorrect but at least closer to the ballpark of the truth than most of what he’s posted since losing his reelection campaign. The “so-called ‘bookies’ ” never had Trump as a 97 percent favorite, but late on the night of Nov. 3, many online sportsbooks did indeed favor him to win the presidency. …

The stock market has made its prediction about who will win the election
4 years, 1 month ago

The stock market has made its prediction about who will win the election

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The presidential election is just two days away and the stock market has locked-in its prediction, according to one indicator. The stock market has a fairly reliable track record: Since World War II, when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent …

Joe Biden’s odds improve on betting markets after first US debate
4 years, 2 months ago

Joe Biden’s odds improve on betting markets after first US debate

Live Mint  

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has gained ground in betting markets over President Donald Trump following their first debate of the 2020 U.S. election campaign, two betting market aggregators said. On UK-based Betfair Exchange, Biden's odds improved to 60% after the debate, up from 56%, while Trump's chances worsened to 40% from 43% pre-debate. "Biden is pitching himself in a …

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