Sticky US inflation and Trump tariffs cast doubt on Fed’s rate cut path, say experts
1 week, 4 days ago

Sticky US inflation and Trump tariffs cast doubt on Fed’s rate cut path, say experts

Live Mint  

Although US CPI inflation recorded its sharpest increase in seven months, it aligned with forecasts and did not disrupt expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week. However, the November inflation data highlighted that the Fed still faces significant challenges in bringing inflation below its 2 per cent target, leaving the outlook for future rate cuts uncertain. While the Fed is almost certain to cut by 25bps next week, the outlook for 2025, with possible tariffs and other inflationary Trump policies, is murkier, which could possibly move the Fed's terminal rate higher," said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services. Expect high volatility Experts believe the market could face heightened volatility due to uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the Fed's rate cut, Trump's tariff plans, and the US fiscal deficit.

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History of this topic

Feds drop interest rates by another quarter-point easing burden for borrowers
Trending News
4 days, 20 hours ago

Feds drop interest rates by another quarter-point easing burden for borrowers

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. This year's Fed rate reductions have marked a …

The Fed is about to deliver the last rate cut for a while
Trending News
5 days, 19 hours ago

The Fed is about to deliver the last rate cut for a while

CNN  

Washington CNN — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to cut interest rates for the third time this year, in what could be the last rate cut for months. The Fed’s key interest rate influences borrowing costs across the economy and it’s used to achieve stable prices and maximum employment, two key goals mandated by Congress. With inflation nearly …

US Fed cuts interest rates but cautions for year ahead
Trending News
5 days, 19 hours ago

US Fed cuts interest rates but cautions for year ahead

Al Jazeera  

Slower progress on inflation translates into a slower pace of rate cuts, especially as economic growth is brisk. “Economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace” with an unemployment rate that “remains low” and inflation that “remains somewhat elevated”, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its latest policy statement on Wednesday. That is half …

Fed makes third rate cut this year, suggests fewer in 2025
5 days, 19 hours ago

Fed makes third rate cut this year, suggests fewer in 2025

Salon  

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday committed to a final interest rate cut this year, as widely expected by economists and investors, but suggested fewer cuts next year. “The slower pace of cuts for next year really reflects both the higher inflation readings we’ve had this year and the expectation inflation will be higher.” Going into the December meeting, market expectations …

Will the Fed keep cutting in 2025?
6 days, 15 hours ago

Will the Fed keep cutting in 2025?

Live Mint  

Investors see an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week as all but certain. Approaching neutral This week’s meeting is likely to deepen debates on two issues that could define where rates go over the next year: the location of the “neutral" rate of interest and the potential for policy changes by President-elect Donald Trump. “It looks like you’ve …

Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs
6 days, 19 hours ago

Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs

CNN  

New York CNN — Jamie Dimon, head of America’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase — and commonly referred to as the ‘president of Wall Street’ — spent much of this past year warning that there’s an elevated risk that the US experiences 1970s-esque stagflation, which is when economic growth stagnates while inflation heats up. His prediction, however, has been pooh-poohed by …

Federal Reserve is likely to slow its rate cuts with inflation pressures still elevated
1 week ago

Federal Reserve is likely to slow its rate cuts with inflation pressures still elevated

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Americans hoping for lower borrowing costs for homes, credit cards and cars may be disappointed after this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed’s policymakers are likely to signal fewer interest rate cuts next year than were previously expected. Instead, inflation has become stuck at a higher level, yet the Fed after Wednesday’s meeting will likely have lowered its …

US Fed to play ‘cut-and-pause’ for meeting dual mandate of growth & inflation; Fewer rate cuts eyed in 2025: Experts
1 week, 2 days ago

US Fed to play ‘cut-and-pause’ for meeting dual mandate of growth & inflation; Fewer rate cuts eyed in 2025: Experts

Live Mint  

The US Federal Reserve will begin its deliberations for the latest monetary policy decisions on Tuesday, December 17, and will announce its new benchmark interest rate decision on December 18. The US central bank will conduct its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting amid Wall Street bets that will likely stay on course towards delivering another rate cut even after …

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs
1 week, 3 days ago

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs

China Daily  

Inflation in the US crept up in November, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its efforts to continue trimming interest rates, while President-elect Donald Trump floated expanded tariffs. "The possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook," the bank's statement said. US …

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs
1 week, 3 days ago

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs

China Daily  

Inflation in the US crept up in November, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its efforts to continue trimming interest rates, while President-elect Donald Trump floated expanded tariffs. "The possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook," the bank's statement said. US …

New inflation numbers threaten Trump and GOP's plans for tax cuts and tariffs: report
1 week, 4 days ago

New inflation numbers threaten Trump and GOP's plans for tax cuts and tariffs: report

Raw Story  

New Labor Department data released Wednesday showed stubborn inflation continued, which could make it difficult for President-elect Donald Trump and his GOP allies to pass certain legislation they've planned. While the consumer price index increased 2.7 percent in November from 2023, it was also larger than September's 2.4 percent rise, The Washington Post reported. "While Trump criticized President Joe Biden’s …

Fed seen poised to cut rates this month, debate 2025 pause
2 weeks, 2 days ago

Fed seen poised to cut rates this month, debate 2025 pause

Live Mint  

* US job growth rebounds in November after October slowdown * Traders lift bets on Fed rate cut this month to 85% * Bowman, who dissented on September rate cut, urges caution * Hammack says it may be time to pause By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir CHICAGO/PALO ALTO, California, Dec 6 - Federal Reserve officials appear on track to …

Fed Officials Keep Options Open for December Rate Decision
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Fed Officials Keep Options Open for December Rate Decision

Live Mint  

-- Three Federal Reserve officials on Monday made clear they expect the US central bank to continue cutting interest rates over the next year, but stopped short of saying they are committed to making the next reduction later this month. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, addressing a conference in Washington, said he’s inclined to vote to lower borrowing costs when Fed …

A top Fed official leans toward December rate cut but says it depends on economic data
2 weeks, 6 days ago

A top Fed official leans toward December rate cut but says it depends on economic data

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A top Federal Reserve official said Monday that he is leaning toward supporting an interest rate cut when the Fed meets in two weeks but that evidence of persistent inflation before then could cause him to change that view. But he noted that there’s a risk that inflation “may be getting stuck above” the Fed’s 2% target, which …

Fed’s Waller says inclined at this point to cut rates in December
Trending News
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Fed’s Waller says inclined at this point to cut rates in December

Live Mint  

By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON, Dec 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday he was inclined to cut the benchmark interest rate at the Dec. 17-18 meeting as monetary policy remained restrictive enough to keep putting downward pressure on inflation, while the labor market was roughly in balance, something the Fed wants to maintain. "Policy is still restrictive …

Trump's Tariffs In His First Term Did Little To Alter Economy — But This Time May Be Different
3 weeks, 4 days ago

Trump's Tariffs In His First Term Did Little To Alter Economy — But This Time May Be Different

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — Donald Trump loved to use tariffs on foreign goods during his first presidency. Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump listens during a campaign rally at Santander Arena, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024, in Reading, Pa. via Associated Press Trump also posted on Monday that Chinese imports would face additional tariffs of 10% until Beijing cracks …

Trump’s tariffs in his first term did little to alter the economy, but this time could be different
Trending News
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Trump’s tariffs in his first term did little to alter the economy, but this time could be different

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump loved to use tariffs on foreign goods during his first presidency. House Democrats put together legislation to strip a president’s ability to unilaterally apply tariffs this drastic, warning that they would likely lead to higher prices for autos, shoes, housing and groceries. Trump’s first term tariffs had a modest impact on economy Trump imposed tariffs on …

Federal Reserve officials signal cautious path for rate cuts amid still-high inflation
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Federal Reserve officials signal cautious path for rate cuts amid still-high inflation

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — With inflation still elevated, Federal Reserve officials expressed caution at their last meeting about cutting interest rates too quickly, adding to uncertainty about their next moves. Even if inflation continued declining to the Fed’s 2% target, officials said, “it would likely be appropriate to move gradually” in lowering rates, according to minutes of the November 6-7 meeting. Yet …

month peak as market awaits next Fed cue
1 month ago

month peak as market awaits next Fed cue

Live Mint  

By Brigid Riley TOKYO - The U.S. dollar stuck close to a 13-month high on Friday as investors assessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and uncertainty in Europe kept the euro on the back foot, while bitcoin eyed the $100,000 level. The yen, meanwhile, held its ground against the greenback after domestic core inflation figures remained …

Donald Trump likely to impose 40% tariff on China imports in 2025, risking growth by 0.5-1% point: Report
Trending News
1 month ago

Donald Trump likely to impose 40% tariff on China imports in 2025, risking growth by 0.5-1% point: Report

Live Mint  

The US could impose nearly 40 per cent tariffs on imports from China early next year, potentially slicing growth in the world's second-biggest economy by up to one percentage point. However, most economists also said they do not expect blanket 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods in early 2025 as this could accelerate inflation within the US. "We expect …

Donald Trump may impose 40% tariffs on China in early 2025: Report
1 month ago

Donald Trump may impose 40% tariffs on China in early 2025: Report

India Today  

The United States could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, potentially slicing growth in the world's second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point. The poll, the first on China's economy by Reuters since Donald Trump's sweeping election victory on November 5, also predicts that the President-elect will resist …

Powell says Fed will likely cut rates cautiously given persistent inflation pressures
1 month, 1 week ago

Powell says Fed will likely cut rates cautiously given persistent inflation pressures

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the Federal Reserve will likely cut its key interest rate slowly and deliberately in the coming months, in part because inflation has shown signs of persistence and the Fed’s officials want to see where it heads next. In his remarks Thursday, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s …

US Fed rate cut: First inflation uptick in 7 months does little for Powell-led FOMC’s December plans; here’s why
1 month, 1 week ago

US Fed rate cut: First inflation uptick in 7 months does little for Powell-led FOMC’s December plans; here’s why

Live Mint  

The US Federal Reserve will likely stay on course towards delivering another interest rate cut in its December policy meeting even after the latest inflation print revealed that consumer prices rose for the first time in seven months. Wall Street analysts say that October's inflation data "will change little for the US Fed'' when the Federal Open Market Committee will …

Economist reveals how Trump could make the economy worse
1 month, 1 week ago

Economist reveals how Trump could make the economy worse

Daily Mail  

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers addresses the New York Economic Club, expressing serious concerns about the Federal Reserve 's approach to inflation. Summers, who has been vocal about inflation risks, warned that the Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, is not acting decisively enough to address "overheating risks" in the economy. Summers speculated that a second Trump administration could exacerbate inflation …

'Really rude shock' coming to Trump voters on inflation: Nobel Prize-winning economist
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

'Really rude shock' coming to Trump voters on inflation: Nobel Prize-winning economist

Raw Story  

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said that voters who believed President-elect Donald Trump would do a better job of handling inflation than Vice President Kamala Harris are in for a "really rude shock." In a podcast published by the Times this week, Krugman outlined why Trump's proposed economic policies were likely to do the exact …

US Fed rate cut outlook: Can Donald Trump’s return shape the US central bank’s interest rate path?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US Fed rate cut outlook: Can Donald Trump’s return shape the US central bank’s interest rate path?

Live Mint  

Although the US Federal Reserve refrained from surprising markets and trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.50 - 4.75 per cent on November 7, markets seemed disappointed by Chair Jerome Powell's tone, which suggested uncertainty about the future path of interest rates. Experts believe Trump's policies about aggressive tariffs and extending tax cuts could drive up inflation …

Trump enters just as the Fed is shifting its focus
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Trump enters just as the Fed is shifting its focus

Live Mint  

With its second consecutive interest-rate cut this year, the Federal Reserve is attempting to boost the odds of a soft landing. Alternatively, any resurgence in inflation could force the Fed to stop cutting rates, raising the odds that the economy faces a hard landing later in Trump’s term. Due in part to the Fed cutting rates with a solid economy, …

The Fed thinks inflation is vanquished
1 month, 2 weeks ago

The Fed thinks inflation is vanquished

Live Mint  

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is sticking with his view that inflation is all but vanquished. Mr. Powell delivered a surprisingly large, 50-basis point cut in September despite persistent above-target inflation and a strong labor market. Economic models tell Mr. Powell and colleagues that inflation will resume its downward drift eventually, and that if they don’t cut rates in the …

'Wrong direction': CNN analyst says Trump win is already hitting Americans in the pocket
1 month, 2 weeks ago

'Wrong direction': CNN analyst says Trump win is already hitting Americans in the pocket

Raw Story  

President-elect Donald Trump's imminent ascent to the White House is already making it more difficult for Americans to buy homes, an economic analyst says. Home loan interest rates have seen an steep uptick to a 6.8 percent average for 30-year fixed mortgages as the bonds market prepares for Trump's economic policies, CNN business reporter Matt Egan said Thursday. Those plans …

Why Aussies with a mortgage could be in for more pain after Donald Trump's election victory
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Why Aussies with a mortgage could be in for more pain after Donald Trump's election victory

Daily Mail  

Donald Trump's election victory could deprive Australian home borrowers of rate cuts, a former Reserve Bank board member fears. Donald Trump 's election victory could deprive Australian home borrowers of rate cuts, a former Reserve Bank board member fears Australia is already struggling with high services inflation but a new wave of American-led protectionism could also lead to higher goods …

US Fed interest policy expected today, Trump victory unlikely to change rate cut plans
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US Fed interest policy expected today, Trump victory unlikely to change rate cut plans

Firstpost  

There is a wide expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter point on Thursday, looking beyond the 2024 US Presidential election results to continue easing borrowing costs on the back of cooling inflation The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point Thursday, looking beyond the election results to …

Stock market today: Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Stock market today: Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most U.S. stocks rose Thursday, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again to make things easier for the economy. Trump is pushing for tariffs and other policies that economists say could drive inflation higher, along with the economy’s growth. It gave back a chunk of its surge from the prior day, driven by expectations that Trump’s …

Fed cuts rates in boost for Trump
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Fed cuts rates in boost for Trump

The Telegraph  

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Thursday night in a boost for incoming president Donald Trump. The central bank voted to lower rates by a quarter of a percentage point, two days after the worries about the economy under the Democrats helped propel Mr Trump back into power. Before Thursday evening’s decision, traders had already begun paring forecasts …

US Fed cuts interest rates by quarter of a percentage point
Top News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US Fed cuts interest rates by quarter of a percentage point

Al Jazeera  

The Fed will have to navigate a changing economic landscape with the election of Donald Trump as the next US president. The United States Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as policymakers took note of a job market that has “generally eased” while inflation continues to move towards the central bank’s 2 percent …

Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates

LA Times  

Trader Edward McCarthy works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange a day after the election. Trump is pushing for tariffs and other policies that economists say could drive inflation higher, along with the economy’s growth. Lyft revved up by 22.8% after the ride-hailing app breezed past Wall Street’s sales and profit expectations, and Ralph Lauren rose 6.6% …

Inflation, debt, default: Donald Trump’s second term poses massive economic challenges
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Inflation, debt, default: Donald Trump’s second term poses massive economic challenges

Live Mint  

As Donald Trump begins his second term, several key challenges lie ahead. The growing debt burden has already affected investor confidence, sending U.S. government bond yields higher as market participants worry about the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. Previous debt ceiling standoffs have pushed the U.S. close to default, and there is concern that the political divide in Washington …

The US Federal Reserve must do two things right now
1 month, 2 weeks ago

The US Federal Reserve must do two things right now

Live Mint  

As US Federal Reserve officials deliberate monetary policy, they may wish to recall what happened when policymakers in past decades became overconfident in using demand management measures to ‘fine tune’ the economy. Its obsession with data dependency has seen it over-react to noisy historical data, lacking the more strategic forward-looking approach needed when using policy tools that operate with ‘long …

Why inflation could rise and interest rates remain elevated under a Trump presidency
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Why inflation could rise and interest rates remain elevated under a Trump presidency

CNN  

London CNN — Inflation is likely to rise in the United States and around the world if newly elected US President Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promises to cut taxes, crack down on immigration and hike tariffs on all imported goods. Trump’s proposed economic policies — including deporting immigrants, across-the-board tariffs and increased political influence on the Fed …

Trump's Economic Plans Would Actually Worsen Inflation, Experts Warn
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump's Economic Plans Would Actually Worsen Inflation, Experts Warn

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — With characteristic bravado, Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.” It’s a message tailored for Americans who are still exasperated by the jump in consumer prices that began 3 1/2 years ago. Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump’s …

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed …

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

New Indian Express  

WASHINGTON: With characteristic bravado, Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely." Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump's proposals would “reignite’’ inflation, which has plummeted since peaking at 9.1% in 2022 and is nearly back to the Fed’s 2% target. Last month, the Peterson …

Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds

CNN  

CNN — Former President Donald Trump has promised to attack the United States affordability crisis by imposing immense tariffs, carrying out unprecedented deportations and even influencing interest rate decisions. A loss of Fed independence would cause “permanently higher inflation” that “leads to ever-increasing prices across the US economy,” the paper said. At an event in Michigan last week, Trump praised …

Ahead of elections, US Federal Reserve shifts interest rates dramatically to deal with worst inflation
3 months ago

Ahead of elections, US Federal Reserve shifts interest rates dramatically to deal with worst inflation

India TV News  

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half of a percentage point on Wednesday, kicking off what is expected to be a steady easing of monetary policy with a larger-than-usual reduction in borrowing costs that followed growing unease about the health of the job market. "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges …

US Federal Reserve is set to cut rates today; key question is, by how much?
3 months ago

US Federal Reserve is set to cut rates today; key question is, by how much?

Hindustan Times  

Having all but tamed inflation, the Federal Reserve is poised to do something Wednesday it hasn’t done in more than four years: Cut its benchmark interest rate, a step that should lead to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses just weeks before the presidential election. Exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, …

Most of Wall Street edges lower after Fed delivers a big cut to rates
3 months ago

Most of Wall Street edges lower after Fed delivers a big cut to rates

LA Times  

Trader Michale Conlon works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference appears on a TV screen on Sept. 18, 2024. “That’s the situation we’re in.” The only question is how much the Fed will ultimately cut rates to do so, which can prove to be a tricky balance. The …

Republicans break with Trump, back Fed ahead of rate cut
3 months, 1 week ago

Republicans break with Trump, back Fed ahead of rate cut

Politico  

“It is time for a rate cut,” said Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana. “This economy — particularly the labor market — is softening very, very, very quickly.” GOP lawmakers’ support for the cut signals that they’re willing to give the Fed room to drive decision-making on monetary policy, despite Trump’s stated desire to have more say over it. “You’ve got …

Buckle up: Wall Street’s shaky July could be a preview for more sharp swings
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Buckle up: Wall Street’s shaky July could be a preview for more sharp swings

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — For more than a year, the U.S. stock market went in mostly one direction, up, and in mostly one manner, quietly. A bonanza around artificial-intelligence technology helped drive Big Tech stocks higher, while other areas of the market held up amid rising hopes for coming cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve. A measure of fear …

US Fed paves the way for pre-election rate cut
4 months, 3 weeks ago

US Fed paves the way for pre-election rate cut

The Telegraph  

The chairman of the US Federal Reserve has paved the way for a pre-election rate cut in a sign that the era of high borrowing costs around the world is coming to an end. Speaking after the Fed held borrowing costs in a range of between 5.25pc and 5.5pc for the eighth time, Mr Powell said: “The broad sense of …

Federal Reserve is edging closer to cutting rates. The question will soon be, how fast?
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Federal Reserve is edging closer to cutting rates. The question will soon be, how fast?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Two years after launching an aggressive fight against inflation and one year after leaving its benchmark interest rate at a near-quarter-century high, the Federal Reserve is expected to signal this week that it will likely reduce borrowing costs as soon as September. Any signal that the Fed will rapidly cut rates could boost the economy and potentially lift …

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