The great unknown: how a Trump presidency could affect the world, in five charts
1 week, 5 days ago

The great unknown: how a Trump presidency could affect the world, in five charts

Live Mint  

US President Harry S. Truman once famously asked for a “one-handed economist" because he was tired of economists who, instead of giving decisive answers, would say, “On the one hand, this, and on the other hand, that." A plan to impose across-the-board tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China reinforced the view that tariffs would increase prices and keep US interest rates higher for longer. Indeed, the 5% gains in the trade-weighted real dollar index since January suggests that the dollar is overvalued, and needs to weaken to keep US exports competitive. Given India’s correlation with global growth, US-China trade tensions may hurt export and GDP growth as it did in during first Trump presidency. On one hand, a rate cut would stimulate growth but create inflationary pressures; on the other, a rate hike would dampen inflation but flatten growth.

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History of this topic

Rahul slams government over trade deficit touching all-time high
5 days, 11 hours ago

Rahul slams government over trade deficit touching all-time high

The Hindu  

Slamming the Modi government, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday said prioritising crony businesses over play-fair ones leads to weakened manufacturing sector, depreciating currency, record high trade deficits, high interest rates, falling consumption and soaring inflation. "Result: Weakened manufacturing sector, depreciating currency, record high trade deficits, high interest rates, falling consumption and soaring inflation," he …

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars
Top News
1 week ago

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars

Live Mint  

-- India’s trade deficit expanded to a record high in November, as the nation’s import bill ballooned, particularly due to a rise in gold shipments. The gap between exports and imports stood at $37.8 billion in November, trade ministry data showed Monday, much higher than the $23 billion deficit forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. A widening trade deficit …

Expert view: India’s growth story remains strong; Trump’s policies may boost China+1 strategy, says Mandal of Marcellus
1 week ago

Expert view: India’s growth story remains strong; Trump’s policies may boost China+1 strategy, says Mandal of Marcellus

Live Mint  

Expert view: Arindam Mandal, the head of global equities at Marcellus, remains confident about India’s long-term structural growth story. In an interview with Mint, Mandal shares his views on the Indian stock market, the US Fed's rate reduction cycle and explains what key factors Indian investors should consider before investing in developed market equities. While Trump’s trade policies are aimed …

Why Donald Trump should tame his love for tariffs
1 week, 3 days ago

Why Donald Trump should tame his love for tariffs

Firstpost  

It should be useful for the Trump administration to review the structural issues and excessive dependence on unilateral and punitive approaches that run counter to his own objectives of Making America Great Again in the short and medium term President Donald Trump loves tariffs, especially when he can unilaterally impose them as a dangling stick, hoping it might turn into …

Donald Trump 2.0 is not a challenge for us, says EAM S Jaishankar
2 weeks, 4 days ago

Donald Trump 2.0 is not a challenge for us, says EAM S Jaishankar

Live Mint  

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, during an interactive session at ASSOCHAM in New Delhi on Thursday, emphasized India’s advantageous political relationship with US President-elect Donald Trump, stating that India is in a “much more advantageous position” compared to many other countries in strengthening ties with Trump’s second term. Trump's positive political view of India Jaishankar reflected on the enduring political …

India faces high exposure to US trade policy shift
2 weeks, 4 days ago

India faces high exposure to US trade policy shift

Deccan Chronicle  

Chennai: India will be one of the key economies that are most exposed to a potential trade policy shift in the US under the new regime. The 2025 trade outlook is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and impact key trading partners, said UNCTAD in its global trade update. This 3.3 …

World Economic Forum chief Borge Brende on global trade, AI, India's aspirations
2 weeks, 4 days ago

World Economic Forum chief Borge Brende on global trade, AI, India's aspirations

India Today  

World Economic Forum President Borge Brende shed light on critical global economic and political dynamics, including the impact of Donald Trump-era trade policies, the evolving US-China economic relationship, and India's growing prominence in the global economy. IMPACT OF TRUMP’S PRESIDENCY ON TRADE I think we're seeing a change towards more nearshoring and friendshoring under President Trump's leadership. And I think …

Commerce Ministry Reviews India-US Trade Ties Amid Trump’s Controversial Remark
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Commerce Ministry Reviews India-US Trade Ties Amid Trump’s Controversial Remark

ABP News  

The commerce ministry is reviewing aspects of India-US trade relations, focusing on the implications of statements made by US President-elect Donald Trump during his election campaign and after the results, an official said, according to a PTI report. Trade experts have argued that Trump’s characterisation of India as an "abuser" of tariffs is unfair, as many countries, including the US, …

Mint Primer: AI-positive? How Trump may grow India’s IT business
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Mint Primer: AI-positive? How Trump may grow India’s IT business

Live Mint  

What do market movements indicate? The expected proposals include corporate tax cuts, sparking optimism about increased discretionary spending by US companies—a key market for IT services providers, which get 60–70% of their earnings from the US market. Interest rate cuts of 50 and 25 bps by the US Fed in September and November are likely to increase spending in the …

India needs to be cautious on Trump threat of tariffs
2 weeks, 6 days ago

India needs to be cautious on Trump threat of tariffs

New Indian Express  

US president-elect Donald Trump’s latest beef about BRICS countries trying to create their own common currency to curb the dominance of the dollar is a typical Trumpian response to what looks like a non-issue. Trump has threatened the BRICS countries with 100 per cent duties on goods sold to the US by these countries if they go ahead with the …

India's GDP growth slows to 5.4% in Q2 2024-25: Govt data
3 weeks, 3 days ago

India's GDP growth slows to 5.4% in Q2 2024-25: Govt data

Hindustan Times  

India's Gross Domestic Product growth slowed down to 5.4% during the second quarter of the financial year 2024-25 due to the falling growth rate in manufacturing, consumption, and mining. India's GDP growth slows to 5.4% in Q2 2024-25, govt data shows In comparison, the GDP growth rate was 8.1% in the second quarter of 2023-24, according to government data released …

India confident of better trade ties with US under Donald Trump: Piysuh Goyal
3 weeks, 4 days ago

India confident of better trade ties with US under Donald Trump: Piysuh Goyal

Live Mint  

Union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal on Thursday expressed confidence in the resilience of India-US relations as Donald Trump gears up for another term in the White House. India's exports Meanwhile, Goyal said India's total exports, including merchandise and services, are expected to cross $800 billion in 2024-25 despite challenges related to the pandemic and geopolitical crises like the …

Mint Quick Edit | Trump’s non-trade tariff idea raises uncertainty
Trending News
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Mint Quick Edit | Trump’s non-trade tariff idea raises uncertainty

Live Mint  

US President-elect Donald Trump is yet to take office, but he has been causing shudders around the world with what policies he might adopt. On Tuesday, Trump put out a post on social media announcing that his administration would impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on China as his first …

Opinion: Making America Gated Again - India should know Trump means tariffs
Trending News
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Opinion: Making America Gated Again - India should know Trump means tariffs

India Today  

If there’s one tool that Donald Trump loves to use against other countries, it’s tariffs. The president-elect telegraphed his intention to impose tariffs on any and every country throughout the election campaign, so no one should be surprised that Trump announced he would impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China on Day 1 unless they took steps to …

Head-on | Why a rising India worries both the West and China
3 weeks, 6 days ago

Head-on | Why a rising India worries both the West and China

Firstpost  

By 2027, India will be the world’s third largest economy. The rear view mirror in both Washington and Beijing shows an accelerating Indian economy growing at nearly twice China’s rate and thrice America’s Never before has a former European colony, impoverished and subjugated for centuries as India was, risen to the status of an economic power. The rear view mirror …

Will India gain as Trump points tariff bazooka at China?
3 weeks, 6 days ago

Will India gain as Trump points tariff bazooka at China?

India Today  

"It is time for them to pay a very big price!" "Many corporates with factories, establishments and offices affected by higher tariffs would be prone to diversify their production chains to geographies like India, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea," Nilanjan Ghosh, Director at ORF, tells India Today Digital. In an interview with India Today TV, geopolitical expert Farid Zakaria said …

S&P Global cuts India’s GDP growth estimates for FY26 and FY27, forecasts 6.8% growth for this fiscal
Trending News
4 weeks ago

S&P Global cuts India’s GDP growth estimates for FY26 and FY27, forecasts 6.8% growth for this fiscal

Live Mint  

New Delhi, Nov 25 S&P Global Ratings on Monday revised down its estimate for India's economic growth in the next two financial years as high interest rate and lower fiscal impulse temper urban demand. In an update to its economic forecast for Asia-Pacific economies after US election results, the rating agency projected a 6.7 per cent GDP growth rate in …

Europe may panic but Trump’s return suits India, and Elon-Vivek’s DOGE agenda suits New Delhi even more
4 weeks ago

Europe may panic but Trump’s return suits India, and Elon-Vivek’s DOGE agenda suits New Delhi even more

Firstpost  

Given India’s own troubles with the shadowy, all-pervading Deep State that dictates the major tenets of America’s foreign policy, India can only hope that Trump succeeds Donald Trump’s second term has raised the collective blood pressure in Europe. Modi was among the first three world leaders to telephone Trump to applaud him on his victory, and in a post on …

Trump’s policies may open new doors for India’s defence sector: Report
Trending News
4 weeks ago

Trump’s policies may open new doors for India’s defence sector: Report

Live Mint  

New Delhi, November 25 : The "America First" trade policy promoted by upcoming U.S. President Donald Trump has far-reaching implications for global trade and geopolitics. It said "Indian businesses in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and defense might also find new opportunities, especially if U.S.- India collaboration strengthens. The report said "increased tariffs might prompt retaliatory measures from trade partners, potentially …

Trump’s tariff proposal opens opportunity for India: Virmani
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Trump’s tariff proposal opens opportunity for India: Virmani

Live Mint  

New Delhi: US President-elect Donald Trump’s pre-election threat of stepping up import tariffs could translate into an opportunity for India to capture a larger share of the US market in the medium term as it could accelerate the re-orientation of global supply chains away from China, federal policy think tank NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said in an interview. Relative …

Under Trump, India can find a way to become manufacturing powerhouse: Fareed Zakaria
1 month ago

Under Trump, India can find a way to become manufacturing powerhouse: Fareed Zakaria

India Today  

Veteran journalist and geopolitical expert Fareed Zakaria offered a comprehensive analysis of Donald Trump’s second term as US President, highlighting its global implications, particularly for India. US policy toward India for the last 25 years has been remarkably consistent and upward moving, and so I think what you're likely to see with India is the continuation of that upward moving …

Trump's tariffs will worry India, but wait, there’s more
1 month ago

Trump's tariffs will worry India, but wait, there’s more

Live Mint  

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has raised fears worldwide of a trade war. This resulted in a trade war with several countries, including China and India, which imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Besides an increase in average tariffs on Indian imports, the number of tariff lines subject to tariffs of 25% or more rose from …

The impact of Trump 2.0 on India’s security
1 month ago

The impact of Trump 2.0 on India’s security

New Indian Express  

The second coming of Donald Trump as POTUS is likely to have a significant impact on the world and on India too. The first is his propensity to use his position to criticise perceived adversaries in the media, foreign officials, personalities in both political parties, and even foreign heads of state. In four years, he had nine officials serve with …

Will US-India thrive under Trump amid 'China factor'? Fareed Zakaria explains
1 month ago

Will US-India thrive under Trump amid 'China factor'? Fareed Zakaria explains

India Today  

Veteran journalist and geopolitical expert Fareed Zakaria on Monday expressed optimism about the trajectory of US-India relations under Donald Trump's regime and believed it to be a "golden opportunity" for India to end China's monopoly in manufacturing. Speaking to India Today TV's News Director Rahul Kanwal, Zakaria highlighted Trump's admiration for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and predicted continued strengthening of …

Indian Economy to Grow 7.2 Percent in 2024, Moody’s Forecasts
1 month, 1 week ago

Indian Economy to Grow 7.2 Percent in 2024, Moody’s Forecasts

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: Global rating agency Moody’s Ratings on Friday said that the Indian economy is in a sweet spot and projected a 7.2 per cent gross domestic product or GDP growth for India in 2024 with the mix of solid growth and moderating inflation. “Although the central bank shifted its monetary policy stance to neutral while keeping the repo rate …

Andy Mukherjee: India’s more immediate worry is tomatoes, not Trump
1 month, 1 week ago

Andy Mukherjee: India’s more immediate worry is tomatoes, not Trump

Live Mint  

Donald Trump is not India’s No. There’s plenty of reason to suspect that the incoming administration will push New Delhi hard on behalf of US technology firms. Starlink’s ties to the US intelligence and military establishment make it a “wolf in sheep’s clothing," a New Delhi-based think tank said this week. And that may be just one area where powerful …

How will Donald Trump presidency impact India-US ties, former aide explains
1 month, 1 week ago

How will Donald Trump presidency impact India-US ties, former aide explains

Hindustan Times  

US President-elect Donald Trump, who shares a strong relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to build on the progress made during his first term and continue strengthening ties with India, according to his South Asia point-person at the White House. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Donald Trump shake hands after introductions during the "Howdi Modi" event in Sept …

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda
1 month, 1 week ago

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda

Live Mint  

New Delhi, November 15 : India's current account deficit will remain within a manageable range for both FY25 and FY26, largely due to muted oil prices that are expected to support the country's external financial position, projected a recent report by Bank of Baroda. Despite global market volatility, the report stated that steady oil prices at current levels are a …

Here’s why Trump 2.0 policies can put Indian IT in a quandary. Spending cuts, regulatory & policy changes may hurt
1 month, 1 week ago

Here’s why Trump 2.0 policies can put Indian IT in a quandary. Spending cuts, regulatory & policy changes may hurt

Live Mint  

When Donald Trump first took office in 2017, Wipro became the first Indian company to flag a US president as a business risk. According to an ET Prime report, Wipro’s annual filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission raised concerns over Trump’s policy stance, noting that his tariff and trade decisions could negatively impact their business in America. Trump’s …

Trump risk: The rupee could get caught in the crossfire of a currency
1 month, 1 week ago

Trump risk: The rupee could get caught in the crossfire of a currency

Live Mint  

Nothing has consumed more ‘little grey cells’ than discussions on the United States presidential election, the contenders and their impact on the fate of the global economy after this “mother of all US elections." Sure enough, no Chinese policy pivot would put a floor under China’s economy, soften the US tariff impact and stabilize consumer prices faster than a weaker …

Will India be a winner or loser when Trump unleashes trade war?
1 month, 1 week ago

Will India be a winner or loser when Trump unleashes trade war?

New Indian Express  

One need not even look that far to determine who actually benefits from trade wars. As for India, the incoming US administration under Trump may choose to intensify trade frictions and if the proposed 10%-20% tariff hikes are indeed imposed, it'll adversely affect us, potentially altering the balance of trade, which remains in India’s favour with a surplus of $35.3 …

Expect trade turmoil with Trump comeback
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

Expect trade turmoil with Trump comeback

Hindustan Times  

Two promises that United States President-elect Donald Trump made during his election campaign could form the core of his economic policy: First, his promise to raise tariffs on everything that the world’s largest economy imports by 10-20%, and second, his pledge to take manufacturing jobs from foreign countries by offering incentives to encourage companies to relocate to the US. Trump’s …

India needs to leverage Trump’s China antipathy
1 month, 1 week ago

India needs to leverage Trump’s China antipathy

Hindustan Times  

The electoral victory of Donald Trump, and his comeback as the United States President, has led to speculation as to the contours of his administration’s policies with respect to the Indo-Pacific region. FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File …

iPhone production likely to double in India due to Donald Trump, adding 200,000 new jobs & $30bn revenue
1 month, 1 week ago

iPhone production likely to double in India due to Donald Trump, adding 200,000 new jobs & $30bn revenue

Firstpost  

Apple’s production increase hinges on the policies of US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his intent to impose steep tariffs, between 60-100 per cent, on goods imported from China If Apple implements these plans, India’s share of global iPhone production could rise to over 26 per cent, a substantial jump from the current 12-14 per cent. The Economic …

Is Donald Trump good for Indian investors? A market veteran weighs in.
1 month, 1 week ago

Is Donald Trump good for Indian investors? A market veteran weighs in.

Live Mint  

The suspense over the US elections has lifted—Donald Trump is back, and in full force. Trump has already made it clear to US trade partners: if they want access to American markets, they’ll need to reciprocate. Indian investors find some solace in Trump’s assurance of no “boots on the ground" in new foreign conflicts. Trump’s close ties with Israeli Prime …

US Elections 2024: 5 key points from Donald Trump’s election manifesto that may impact India
1 month, 1 week ago

US Elections 2024: 5 key points from Donald Trump’s election manifesto that may impact India

Live Mint  

Donald Trump has secured his return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, following a highly-competitive election on November 5, 2024. Trump’s Policy Agenda 5 key points from Donald Trump’s election manifesto that may impact India: Tax Reforms: As per the report, Trump’s policy platform emphasises extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which …

Trump 2.0 May Shift FDIs to US, But India’s Inflow Unaffected: SBI Report
1 month, 1 week ago

Trump 2.0 May Shift FDIs to US, But India’s Inflow Unaffected: SBI Report

Deccan Chronicle  

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment trends in the second term of Donald Trump as President of the United States, says a research report by State Bank of India.The report highlighted that under his first term Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows …

Trump’s win boosts confidence in US economy; Emerging markets concerned over strengthening dollar — expert advice
1 month, 1 week ago

Trump’s win boosts confidence in US economy; Emerging markets concerned over strengthening dollar — expert advice

Live Mint  

The Indian stock market was taking a beating in the last month,with funds reportedly shifting to other countries such as China and Japan. ‘Trumpononics’ policy This week, the stronger-than-expected mandate win for Trump has boosted the global equity market. Generally, today the US stock market is in a boom in anticipation of tax cuts and high government spending. The world …

Trump 2.0: How to make your portfolio great again
1 month, 1 week ago

Trump 2.0: How to make your portfolio great again

Live Mint  

New Delhi: “Experience taught me a few things. But for global financial markets, the ‘Trump trade’ only fuelled a furious rally, with Wall Street and other major stock indices vaulting to record highs in tandem with Bitcoin, while the US dollar strengthened, and bond yields jumped sharply in the immediate aftermath of the election results. Lowering the cost of medicines …

India bets on Modi-Trump warmth to navigate choppy future with US
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

India bets on Modi-Trump warmth to navigate choppy future with US

Al Jazeera  

New Delhi, India — During his campaign for re-election, Donald Trump repeatedly threatened major tariffs on imports from a range of countries. Now, Trump’s “America First” agenda — which aims to offset domestic tax cuts by imposing higher tariffs on imports — could disrupt that relationship. “During the first term, Trump got into this whole ‘protectionist mode’, but upon his …

India poised to gain from Trump’s potential tariff hike on China, says report
1 month, 2 weeks ago

India poised to gain from Trump’s potential tariff hike on China, says report

Live Mint  

Following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential elections, a report from CareEdge suggests that India could benefit from potential shifts in global trade dynamics if Trump moves forward with plans to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports. Such policies aim to reduce the U.S. dependence on Chinese imports, a move that could disrupt established trade channels and prompt companies …

India could benefit from re-orientation of global supply chain away from China after Trump victory: Report
Trending News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

India could benefit from re-orientation of global supply chain away from China after Trump victory: Report

Op India  

After the victory of the Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections, India could benefit from any re-orientation of the global supply chain away from China says a report from Care Edge As per the report, Trump has proposed imposing high tariffs on imports from China, which could lead to changes in global trade dynamics, creating opportunities for India. It …

From the India Today Archives (2017): How India should deal with Donald Trump
1 month, 2 weeks ago

From the India Today Archives (2017): How India should deal with Donald Trump

India Today  

"I like thinking big. For those foxed by Trump’s blitzkrieg of measures and his shifting stands on some key issues, it’s worth recalling that his second maxim for success is "maximise your options". Trump may also egg Modi on to support his trade war with China-something India may not like to play along with, given Trump’s recent flip-flops while dealing …

Only a weaker dollar will bring foreign investors back to India: Ruchir Sharma
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Only a weaker dollar will bring foreign investors back to India: Ruchir Sharma

India Today  

Renowned investor and author Ruchir Sharma believes foreign investment will only return to India once the US dollar weakens. "The one variable that every investor in India should look at as to when foreign flows will start coming back into India is when the dollar turns," he said. Sharma also pointed out that unless there is a significant change in …

Should India worry about Donald Trump's tariff plans? Ruchir Sharma explains
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Should India worry about Donald Trump's tariff plans? Ruchir Sharma explains

India Today  

Ace investor and author Ruchir Sharma warned that Donald Trump is likely to impose more aggressive tariffs in his second term. "I think America has just become a much less dependable ally currently and tomorrow, if America sees it in its interest to cut a deal with China, for whatever reason, they're not going to think about 'Oh, India is …

Watch | Trump 2.0: What should India watch out for?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Watch | Trump 2.0: What should India watch out for?

The Hindu  

The world view of many countries, especially the U.S. has definitely changed with this week’s election results. Less U.S. pressure on democracy, minority rights, press freedoms More muted comments on the Pannun-Nijjar issue, and given Trump’s tensions with Trudeau, less worry that India-Canada ties could affect India-US ties. What then are the negatives New Delhi should watch out for: Trump’s …

As Trump vows America First, what’s in store for China & India in Indo-Pacific?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

As Trump vows America First, what’s in store for China & India in Indo-Pacific?

Firstpost  

In sharp deviation from outgoing US President Joe Biden, a lifelong internationalist, President-elect Donald Trump is a brutal transanctionalist who largely sees the world from the point of view of trade and tariffs Former US President Donald Trump has the potential to transform the American government institition for decades. However, now as China is facing economic woes, it remains to …

‘MAGA, India First’: Why Donald Trump's return will solidify India-US trade, security ties
1 month, 2 weeks ago

‘MAGA, India First’: Why Donald Trump's return will solidify India-US trade, security ties

Hindustan Times  

The Narendra Modi government and the Indian people are very optimistic about the forthcoming US Presidency of Donald Trump despite exaggerated concerns over trade tariff issues between the two natural allies when the Republican leader takes over the reins of power on January 20, 2025. The warm conversation between the two leaders lasted around 30 minutes with President-elect Trump calling …

Will India triumph or be Trumped?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Will India triumph or be Trumped?

Live Mint  

If you are the CEO of a global multinational corporation or the chief investment officer of a large global pension fund or a sovereign wealth fund or an insurance company, or an asset manager with a high allocation to emerging markets, India should be the least of your concerns for now. Trump’s ‘America First’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ rhetoric …

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