Risky recourse: The Hindu Editorial on the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee and policy rate
1 year, 7 months ago

Risky recourse: The Hindu Editorial on the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee and policy rate

The Hindu  

The latest decision by the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee to leave its policy rate unchanged is a calculated risk taken by the rate setting panel, especially when viewed in light of the upward revision of its inflation forecast. Barely two months after projecting Consumer Price Index-based inflation to average 5.1% over the current fiscal year ending in March 2024, the MPC has raised its forecast for the annual average by 30 basis points to 5.4%. Conceding that a spike in tomato prices had contributed to a shock that had forced a revision in the headline inflation projection for the July-September quarter by a ‘substantial’ 100 basis points to 6.2%, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das acknowledged that while the likely short-term nature of these shocks allowed for policymakers to look past a couple of high inflation prints, frequently recurring food price shocks risk destabilising inflation expectations. And while Mr. Das and his colleagues on the MPC have reaffirmed their readiness to take policy actions in order to align inflation to the target and ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored, how quickly policymakers actually walk the talk and intercede in the coming months will determine their inflation-fighting mettle.

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