Terms of Trade | Nuanced economic debates will not matter in 2024
1 year, 6 months ago

Terms of Trade | Nuanced economic debates will not matter in 2024

Hindustan Times  

With the celebrations of the ninth anniversary of the Narendra Modi government, the countdown to the 2024 general elections has started. Urban unemployment rate fell to its lowest – the earliest data we have is for the quarter ending June 2018 – in the Periodic Labour Force Survey round for the quarter ending March 2023. To cut a long story short, it appears that even a subpar economic performance in 2023-24 – some private forecasters have a GDP growth number lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s 6.5% estimate – is unlikely to lead to an economic crisis. Rural wages have largely been flat in real terms over the past few years, the share of unpaid workers shows a rise despite falling unemployment rate in PLFS numbers, and consumer sentiment continues to be negative, which means that the share of people who think they are worse off than they were a year ago is larger than those who think their condition has improved. The economic pain due to a lower growth rate during the second Modi term is unlikely to be a key factor in the 2024 elections.

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History of this topic

US Elections 2024: 5 key points from Donald Trump’s election manifesto that may impact India
1 month, 1 week ago

US Elections 2024: 5 key points from Donald Trump’s election manifesto that may impact India

Live Mint  

Donald Trump has secured his return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States, following a highly-competitive election on November 5, 2024. Trump’s Policy Agenda 5 key points from Donald Trump’s election manifesto that may impact India: Tax Reforms: As per the report, Trump’s policy platform emphasises extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which …

Trump's potential return sparks concerns over Indo-US trade ties, tariffs
Trending News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Trump's potential return sparks concerns over Indo-US trade ties, tariffs

New Indian Express  

Donald Trump’s return as the 47th president of the US will likely put Indo-US trade ties under sharp focus. Trump has promised a fresh wave of tariffs under his ‘America first’ stance, which may adversely affect countries like India and its key sectors such IT, pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals and automotive parts. He even proposed import duty increases of 10-20 percent …

Trump’s Return: Key focus on trade and fiscal policies after US Election 2024 win, says Nuvama
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Trump’s Return: Key focus on trade and fiscal policies after US Election 2024 win, says Nuvama

Live Mint  

With Donald Trump poised to make a comeback to the White House, two specific areas of policy making require careful observation—trade policy and fiscal policy, according to a report from brokerage firm Nuvama Institutional Equities. Following Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the tightly contested 2024 US Presidential Election, Nuvama also said that it is premature to evaluate the …

The IMF's WEO and the Rise of China: A Cautionary Tale for India
1 month, 4 weeks ago

The IMF's WEO and the Rise of China: A Cautionary Tale for India

Hindustan Times  

The IMF's World Economic Outlook report sheds light on the competitive edge China holds in the electric vehicle (EV) industry. The report highlights the sharp rise in labor productivity in China, which has enabled them to produce EVs at lower costs compared to their European counterparts. This competitiveness could lead to a global disruption in the EV market, which is …

Terms of Trade | Turbulent geopolitics calls for serious economics
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Terms of Trade | Turbulent geopolitics calls for serious economics

Hindustan Times  

The ongoing conflict has claimed one of the highest civilian casualties in recent history. If the western world caught an inflation cold because of a war with Russia, it will definitely face economic turmoil in case there is a military conflict involving China, the world’s second-largest economy and the largest exporter. In fact, given India’s trade dependence on China, a …

India’s economic boom won’t be derailed by its election shock
6 months, 2 weeks ago

India’s economic boom won’t be derailed by its election shock

CNN  

New Delhi CNN — Narendra Modi has declared victory in India’s election but he’ll need the support of smaller parties to govern, a shock result that could make it harder for him to pass major economic reforms. India boomed during Modi’s first two terms as prime minister, leapfrogging the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth biggest economy and growing …

Bernstein's poll prediction: Nifty can give double-digit returns in 2024 if BJP wins…
7 months ago

Bernstein's poll prediction: Nifty can give double-digit returns in 2024 if BJP wins…

Hindustan Times  

Global brokerage firm Bernstein predicted high single-digit or low double-digit returns for Nifty in 2024 if BJP wins more than 290 seats in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The brokerage said that there is a high probability of BJP winning 330-350 seats, adding, “We expect a short-term rally either leading into elections or the week after results potentially breach our …

Terms of Trade | What explains the BJP’s polarising campaign in these elections?
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Terms of Trade | What explains the BJP’s polarising campaign in these elections?

Hindustan Times  

More than half of the seats have already voted in this election cycle. Five years later, the 2019 elections were fought with the tailwinds of fiscal palliatives such as the PM-KISAN transfers; they were deployed after the BJP’s 2018 losses in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and an aggressive national security pitch after India conducted airstrikes in Pakistan occupied Kashmir …

Ecostani | What’s on the mind of Indian voters as we go in for general elections in a week?
8 months, 1 week ago

Ecostani | What’s on the mind of Indian voters as we go in for general elections in a week?

Hindustan Times  

The CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey shows that unemployment, price rise, development and corruption were the four biggest issues in voters’ minds. The construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, India’s international standing and Hindutva — the core poll plank of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party — also find resonance among the voters. The survey, conducted through questionnaire-based in-person interviews, happened before …

Terms of Trade | Indian liberals are having a Hillary Clinton moment
8 months, 1 week ago

Terms of Trade | Indian liberals are having a Hillary Clinton moment

Hindustan Times  

“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. The BJP’s landslide victories outside southern India, we are told are a result of toxic and backward people consolidating behind toxic and reactionary politics. By now, it is an established fact that the BJP enjoys a vote share …

Terms of Trade | The Opposition must revisit its economic approach if it wants to change the future
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Terms of Trade | The Opposition must revisit its economic approach if it wants to change the future

Hindustan Times  

This edition of Terms of Trade is perhaps the last one before the Election Commission of India announces the schedule for the 2024 general elections. While the BJP did face political headwinds in the immediate aftermath of its landslide 2014 victory after big defeats in the 2015 Delhi and Bihar assembly elections, it managed to regain the narrative after winning …

Letters to The Editor — March 4, 2024
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Letters to The Editor — March 4, 2024

The Hindu  

The Bharatiya Janata Party has gone into overdrive in its quest for a third term in power. It seems to be unmindful of the danger of an overkill if a political party, however invincible it may seem, plans and does everything too early, too carefully and too professionally. But they ought to realise that India’s political diversity and a host …

Terms of Trade | Will HCES findings change politics in India?
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Terms of Trade | Will HCES findings change politics in India?

Hindustan Times  

When the government publishes the data for the 2022-23 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, India will see a big debate on consumption levels, inequality and poverty. From the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme and the National Food Security Act under the United Progressive Alliance era to the Narendra Modi government significantly expanding the scope of asset transfer programmes such as …

Terms of Trade | Is ‘Bharat’ the new Davos?
10 months, 2 weeks ago

Terms of Trade | Is ‘Bharat’ the new Davos?

Hindustan Times  

The last budget of the second Narendra Modi government and now a White Paper on the state of the economy strike a very unusual political economy note. India’s trajectory towards a neoliberal economy which is programmatically wedded to the idea of fiscal conservatism and unregulated markets has been completed while negotiating political roadblocks on the way. These three factors, when …

Terms of Trade | Move over socialism, the joke’s on liberalism now
10 months, 4 weeks ago

Terms of Trade | Move over socialism, the joke’s on liberalism now

Hindustan Times  

When the Communist Party of India met in its second party congress in 1948, its 44-year-old secretary Bhalchandra Trimbak Ranadive came up with the famous line of “ Yeh aazadi jhoothi hai, desh ki janata bhookhi hai ”. The economic model after Independence BTR’s post-facto realisation of the global revolution having run its course before it could reach India would …

Terms of Trade | Why is the BJP immune from the anger of a K-shaped economic recovery?
11 months, 1 week ago

Terms of Trade | Why is the BJP immune from the anger of a K-shaped economic recovery?

Hindustan Times  

The first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Office expect the Indian economy to grow at 7.3% in 2023-24. Global growth rankings aside, what does this number actually mean as far as India’s political economy is concerned? Anybody who has been following India’s political economy in the past decade will agree that all three are true in some way. …

Terms of Trade | Three lessons for the Congress party before 2024
1 year ago

Terms of Trade | Three lessons for the Congress party before 2024

Hindustan Times  

The Congress’s impressive Telangana victory in this election cycle has been completely overshadowed by its losses in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The Congress party’s top leadership, especially Rahul Gandhi, seems to have reached a conclusion that the best way to revive the party’s fortunes in 2024 is to resurrect Mandal politics. The second one applies to …

Terms of Trade | Redistribution is dead, long live redistribution!
1 year, 1 month ago

Terms of Trade | Redistribution is dead, long live redistribution!

Hindustan Times  

Two key political announcements made headlines that point to the deeper political economy crisis. Under the National Food Security Act, almost two-thirds of India’s population is entitled to receive either 35 kg food grains per household or 5 kg per household per person at the issue price of ₹3/2/1 per kg. Even when such equality existed, in-built caste networks in …

Terms of Trade | Why Congress's trollification is bad for its political prospects
1 year, 3 months ago

Terms of Trade | Why Congress's trollification is bad for its political prospects

Hindustan Times  

This week’s column will succumb to the temptation of beginning with a personal anecdote. The behaviour is also symptomatic of the ideological disarming of the Opposition, which has given Narendra Modi and the BJP a walkover on its claims of preserving and strengthening India’s national interest. To be sure, one could always turn back and ask whether the Congress adopting …

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | Is the Indian economy booming in the 76th year of independence?
1 year, 4 months ago

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | Is the Indian economy booming in the 76th year of independence?

The Hindu  

Published : Aug 24, 2023 11:00 IST - 6 MINS READ On the completion of 76 years since Indian Independence, a wide range of “informed” opinions from government spokespersons, non-government analysts, and large sections of the domestic and foreign media, enthusiastically or grudgingly declared that, as an economy, India is doing very well. This bounce back from the 5.8 per …

Terms of Trade | BJP's hegemony without dominance
1 year, 6 months ago

Terms of Trade | BJP's hegemony without dominance

Hindustan Times  

Many of this column’s readers will be reading this edition around the time Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be inaugurating India’s new parliament building. The political imagery of the prime minister inaugurating the new parliament must be seen along with various other images of him signifying a rejuvenation of the Indian state under the current government’s tenure. Large parts of …

Terms of Trade | What ails competitive capitalism in India
1 year, 8 months ago

Terms of Trade | What ails competitive capitalism in India

Hindustan Times  

In a paper which is likely to create a big debate in India, New York University professor and former deputy governor of the RBI, Viral Acharya has argued that India needs to do five things to exploit its true economic potential. What this week’s column intends to do is take Acharya’s claims at face value and situate them in India’s …

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