The GOP’s Biggest 2018 Election Problem: Republican Representatives in Blue States
Huff PostThe GOP has a 24-seat advantage in the House of Representatives today. But Republicans’ biggest problem headed into 2018 is that their coalition has depended for the last forty years on winning suburban House seats in solidly blue states, and those representatives are in danger of near extinction. However, the Republican’s problem is that the same thing has happened to them across the Northeast, and is threatening to happen to them in the three largest “blue” states of New York, California, New Jersey, and two other blue bastions with purple representation: Washington and Virginia. Moreover, the underlying Cook Report partisanship leans matched against the generic Congressional ballot match up with the polls: 7 of the 14 GOP Congressmen are in a district with a partisanship index of +/-5, which would be well within range for Democrats with a generic congressional ballot of +9 currently, while two more, Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrbacher are also vulnerable. Last, there are also enough vulnerable GOP districts in swing states such as those of the retiring Ilena Leitenen and Carlos Cuebolo in Florida, Arizona’s Martha McSally, Pennsylvania’s Costello Meehan, Fitzpatrick, and the retiring Charlie Dent, Michigan’s retiring Dave Trott, and Iowa’s Blum and Young to make Republicans sweat elsewhere.
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