US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined by 0.7% in June to 106.1 following a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. “Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. "Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further," Zabinska-La Monica said.

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History of this topic

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
4 months, 1 week ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets

ABC  

There are genuine concerns the world's largest economy is heading toward a recession, and the fear is gripping global financial markets. "Shares went sky high into July on the back of better news on inflation, increasing optimism about lower interest rates ahead and optimism about IT and AI-related earnings," Mr Oliver, who manages $3 billion in investments, said. The US …

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

Hindustan Times  

US recession may have just been delayed to 2025, as per a recent note from JPMorgan's trading desk that highlighted the strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March that jumped over 50 for the first time since September 2022 which represents an expansion in manufacturing activity. The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid …

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate
9 months, 3 weeks ago

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The U.S. economy grew at …

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024
9 months, 4 weeks ago

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel. Professional …

Recession has struck some of the world’s top economies. The US keeps defying expectations
10 months, 1 week ago

Recession has struck some of the world’s top economies. The US keeps defying expectations

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. It’s blown past many predictions coming into last year that a recession seemed inevitable because of high interest rates meant …

Economic growth continues, as latest GDP data shows strong 3.3% pace last quarter
10 months, 4 weeks ago

Economic growth continues, as latest GDP data shows strong 3.3% pace last quarter

CBS News  

The nation's economy grew at an unexpectedly brisk 3.3% annual pace from October through December as Americans showed a continued willingness to spend freely despite high interest rates and price levels that have frustrated many households. Thursday's report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the economy's total output of goods and services — decelerated from its …

Why did economists go wrong by forecasting a US recession this year?
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Why did economists go wrong by forecasting a US recession this year?

Live Mint  

Last year at this time, 85% of economists in a poll predicted a recession in the US this year—and that was an optimistic take, compared to the 100% probability of a recession forecast two months earlier. As US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week: “So many economists were saying there’s no way for inflation to get back to normal …

Congressional Budget Office projects lower inflation and higher unemployment into 2025
1 year ago

Congressional Budget Office projects lower inflation and higher unemployment into 2025

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Congressional Budget Office said Friday it expects inflation to nearly hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate in 2024, as overall growth is expected to slow and unemployment is expected to rise into 2025, according to updated economic projections for the next two years. The office’s Current View of the Economy from 2023 to 2025 report estimates …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says
1 year ago

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says

LA Times  

A crane lifts a shipping container at an automated container port in Tianjin, China. The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 6 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

No recession in US in 2023 or 2024: Joe Biden's expert-defying/ denying claim
1 year, 10 months ago

No recession in US in 2023 or 2024: Joe Biden's expert-defying/ denying claim

Hindustan Times  

US president Joe Biden said that he did not believe the US economy will fall into recession in 2023 or even next year in 2024. Earlier, Joe Biden had said that a recession was possible in the US although he said this week that the risk was very low. The economic data for the past few months has been in …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 10 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The second consecutive quarter of economic growth that the government reported Thursday underscored that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
1 year, 11 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises
1 year, 11 months ago

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — For months, the outlook for the U.S. economy has been a mostly bleak one: Inflation hitting a four-decade high, consumer spending weakening, interest rates surging. These trends are raising expectations that the Fed might manage to engineer an often-elusive “soft landing,” whereby the economy slows but doesn’t go into reverse and unemployment rate rises slightly but stays low. …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?
2 years, 1 month ago

EXPLAINER: How will we know if the U.S. is in recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the July-September quarter, the government reported Thursday, underscoring that the United States is not in a recession despite distressingly high inflation and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March …

5 signs the world is headed for a recession
2 years, 2 months ago

5 signs the world is headed for a recession

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge. The dollar’s strength also creates destabilizing effects for Wall Street, as many of the S&P 500 companies do business around the world. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.” Welcome to bear territory …

US economy drops at 0.6% annual rate from April through June
2 years, 2 months ago

US economy drops at 0.6% annual rate from April through June

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, the U.S. economy shrank at a 0.6% annual rate from April through June, the government announced Thursday, unchanged from its previous second-quarter estimate. But the Fed has raised interest rates five times this year — most recently Sept. 21 — to rein in consumer prices, which were up 8.3% …

US economy shrank from April through June, second time in a row
2 years, 2 months ago

US economy shrank from April through June, second time in a row

Al Jazeera  

The United States economy continues to send mixed signals with some believing it is on the brink of a recession while others point to a stronger than usual jobs market. Battered by surging consumer prices and rising interest rates, the United States economy shrank at a 0.6 percent annual rate from April through June, the government has announced, unchanged from …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

How CFOs are preparing for a potential economic downturn
2 years, 4 months ago

How CFOs are preparing for a potential economic downturn

Live Mint  

Chief financial officers have said in recent weeks that they have limited visibility into where the economy is headed, as the job market remains strong despite record inflation and rising interest rates. Walmart Inc., the country’s largest retailer, is one of many companies that have recently cut their profit forecasts, warning that higher prices are causing customers to pull back …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. “The fact that the economy created 2.7 million payrolls in the first half of the year would seem to argue against an official recession call for now.” Still, …

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?
2 years, 4 months ago

EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy has contracted for two straight quarters, intensifying fears that the nation is on the cusp of a recession — if not already in one — barely two years after the pandemic recession officially ended. While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don’t think the economy is in recession, many …

Recession fears deepen as U.S. economy contracts again
2 years, 4 months ago

Recession fears deepen as U.S. economy contracts again

The Hindu  

The U.S. economy contracted for a second straight quarter between April and June, government data showed Thursday, adding fuel to recession fears in a headache for President Joe Biden ahead of midterm elections. Mr. Biden insisted that the US economy is "on the right path," despite the slowdown, but his critics are sure to seize on the report as proof …

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a second quarter, fuelling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The fall in US GDP comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell says growth needs to slow. The US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, raising chances of a recession, as decades-high inflation undercut consumer spending and Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes stymied business investment and housing demand. The report illustrates how …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 4 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom
2 years, 4 months ago

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession. Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and …

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023

Associated Press  

TORONTO — A report issued Thursday by the Royal Bank of Canada says the country is headed towards a recession in 2023, but it will be short-lived and not as severe as prior downturns. RBC economists said that soaring food and energy prices, rising interest rates and ongoing labor shortages will push the economy into a “moderate contraction″ next year. …

If the US is in a recession, It’s a very strange one
2 years, 5 months ago

If the US is in a recession, It’s a very strange one

Live Mint  

The U.S. economy has experienced 12 recessions since World War II, and each one included two features: Economic output contracted and unemployment rose. “I would be surprised if there were a recession without much job loss," said Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard University economics professor. Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economics professor and member of the NBER’s business cycle dating committee, …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

US economy slipped 1.6% to start year; return to growth eyed
2 years, 5 months ago

US economy slipped 1.6% to start year; return to growth eyed

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank at a 1.6% annual pace in the first three months of the year, the government reported Wednesday in a slight downgrade from its previous estimate for January-March quarter. But on its third and final estimate Wednesday the department said consumer spending — which accounts for about two-thirds of economic output — was substantially weaker …

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost
2 years, 5 months ago

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

Firstpost  

According to America’s National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is ‘a significant decline in economic activity’ that is widespread and lasts several months. That means not only shrinking GDP but also declining incomes, employment, industrial production and retail sales Chaotic stock markets, sky-high interest rates and the pain of inflation have left one question at the top of Americans’ …

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why
2 years, 6 months ago

Yes, a recession looks inevitable. But it may not be that bad. Here’s why

LA Times  

People pass Nordstrom Rack in downtown Los Angeles on March 15. Many other leaders of businesses, small and large, as well as workers, are bracing for harder times, with fears stoked by the Federal Reserve’s plans for more fat interest rate increases to combat high inflation. “We’re skating on the edge of recession, especially with the Fed bringing out these …

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?
2 years, 6 months ago

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. That said, Farooqi cautioned, “the economy faces headwinds.” Among the signs that recession risks are rising: High inflation has proved far more entrenched and persistent than many economists — and the Fed — had expected: Consumer prices rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, the biggest annual 12-month jump since 1981. …

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?
2 years, 7 months ago

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, warning signs of a recession are flashing. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists warned last month, staking out the more bearish position on Wall Street. Bank of America, in the still-grim-but-less-dire camp, said the mood in financial markets has been “recessionary.” Goldman Sachs is among the more optimistic of …

We're not in recession now? Here's what today's GDP figures mean
3 years, 3 months ago

We're not in recession now? Here's what today's GDP figures mean

ABC  

Today's GDP figures show the economy grew by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter. Economic activity grew by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter, following growth of 1.9 per cent in the March quarter "We should remind ourselves that the Australian economy was booming for a lot of the second quarter and some of the monthly data was …

31.4% spring slide for a US economy likely to shrink in 2020
4 years, 2 months ago

31.4% spring slide for a US economy likely to shrink in 2020

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy plunged at an unprecedented rate this spring and even with a record rebound expected in the just-ended third quarter, the U.S. economy will likely shrink this year, the first time that has happened since the Great Recession. The gross domestic product, the economy’s total output of goods and services, fell at a rate of 31.4% …

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