The problem with cherry-picking data
5 years, 8 months ago

The problem with cherry-picking data

The Hindu  

Minister of State for Housing and Urban Affairs Hardeep Singh Puri said last week, “we definitely have a data crisis,” and blamed academics for creating a “false narrative”. Data are being withheld precisely where experts have flagged problems, such as on employment, farmers’ crisis and economic growth. To counter the argument of a crisis facing large segments of the population, the government first tried to discredit alternative arguments and then changed its stance to say that data on the unorganised sector employment were bad. Most critically, if data on unorganised sector employment are not reliable or are non-existent, then GDP data are also not credible. If the alternative data on unorganised sector growth are included, then the rate of growth would turn out to be less than 1%.

Growth Crisis Rate Rbi Figures Organised Nsso Unorganised Employment Data Sector Employment  sector  employment  data  gdp  problem  unorganised  figures  growth  organised  cherrypicking  crisis  rate

History of this topic

Why has official Indian data on informal enterprises been kept under wraps?
7 months, 4 weeks ago

Why has official Indian data on informal enterprises been kept under wraps?

Live Mint  

Barely a week goes by these days without an economist or policy wonk debating India’s growth numbers. Speaking to The Economist recently, India’s former chief statistician Pronab Sen argued that the old GDP series may have captured real growth rates more accurately. In an earlier interview to The Wire, Sen had argued that India’s recent growth numbers were likely to …

Wrong to assess economic activity on GDP alone: Finance Ministry
1 year, 3 months ago

Wrong to assess economic activity on GDP alone: Finance Ministry

The Hindu  

The Finance Ministry on September 15 scotched aspersions cast by “certain sections” on the credibility of Indian GDP data, which showed a 7.8% uptick in the first quarter of this year, stressing that Indian GDP data is not seasonally adjusted and is finalised three years later so “it is wrong to look at the underlying economic activity based on GDP …

Our wait for a good firm-level database seems endless
2 years, 3 months ago

Our wait for a good firm-level database seems endless

Live Mint  

My last column on India’s ill-fated index of industrial production received several comments and questions. As I had argued earlier, India also needs a reliable gauge of services activity, given that the services sector accounts for more than half of India’s economic output. A dynamic business register that is able to capture key attributes of all firms operating across sectors …

Data can be an asset for governance, growth and public welfare
3 years, 11 months ago

Data can be an asset for governance, growth and public welfare

Hindustan Times  

Data is a critical component for measurable and actionable governance and policy perspectives, as well as for triggering innovation and growth. Data as a beneficial good is also covered in the Economic Survey 2019, which proposed that data gathered by governments on issues of social interest ought to be democratised in the interest of social welfare, or made a public …

Minding the gaps in India’s data infrastructure
5 years, 2 months ago

Minding the gaps in India’s data infrastructure

The Hindu  

Last week, demographers from around the world gathered in Delhi to mark 25 years of National Family Health Surveys. Can India’s existing data infrastructure support high quality data collection or are we staring at a precipice where deteriorating data quality will lead evidence-based policy development astray? Presentations by Dr. Amy Tsui, Professor at Johns Hopkins University, and Dr. Santanu Pramanik, …

India’s GDP growth overestimated by 2.5% during 2011-2017: Former CEA Arvind Subramanian
5 years, 6 months ago

India’s GDP growth overestimated by 2.5% during 2011-2017: Former CEA Arvind Subramanian

Live Mint  

India’s statistics may have been painting a far rosier picture of economic growth than the more modest reality of the past decade. The nation has held the crown of the world’s fastest-growing major economy until recently, but a new study by former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian says the expansion was overestimated between 2011 and 2017. A growing number of …

Government fooling people on GDP data: Chidambaram
5 years, 8 months ago

Government fooling people on GDP data: Chidambaram

India TV News  

Congress leader P. Chidambaram on Wednesday alleged that the BJP-led government had tried to fool people that the GDP growth is much higher than that of UPA and it was a scam. He said NSSO data shifted the base year which is not unusual but the CSO data shifted the base year gave up RBI data base and switched over …

NSSO finds GDP new series data faulty; 36% companies under Corporate Affairs Ministry database wrongly classified
5 years, 8 months ago

NSSO finds GDP new series data faulty; 36% companies under Corporate Affairs Ministry database wrongly classified

Firstpost  

the data of past years was recalibrated using 2011-12 as the base year instead of 2004-05 The gross domestic numbers are under scrutiny as a key database introduced in the new GDP series is found to be faulty. In November 2018, the government lowered the country’s economic growth rate during the previous Congress-led UPA regime, shaving off over 1 percentage …

Why disclosing the withheld jobs report could improve GDP numbers too
5 years, 8 months ago

Why disclosing the withheld jobs report could improve GDP numbers too

Live Mint  

New Delhi: he suppression of the National Sample Survey Office’s jobs report has been at the receiving end of much criticism, but one fallout of the non-disclosure has gained little attention: the lack of reliable jobs data could bring a decade-long effort to improve estimates of informal sector activity to a creaking halt. The lack of a high-frequency labour market …

India’s data-driven governance regime is not foolproof
5 years, 9 months ago

India’s data-driven governance regime is not foolproof

Hindustan Times  

The ongoing controversy over the credibility and objectivity of India’s statistical system is one of the most damaging legacies of this out-going government. This new regime relies largely on administrative data, which is routinely collected by government departments to track and monitor the progress of schemes and is increasingly beginning to shape day-to-day administration. Economists Abhijit Banerjee and Shrayana Bhattacharya …

Economists' warning signal: To regain India's data credibility, govt should withdraw faulty GDP back series, release NSSO job numbers
5 years, 9 months ago

Economists' warning signal: To regain India's data credibility, govt should withdraw faulty GDP back series, release NSSO job numbers

Firstpost  

The Mundle series showed that the GDP growth had actually touched the double-digit mark, India has been desperately hoping for, in 2006-07. That’s what reflects in a letter released on Thursday by 108 economists and social scientists calling for restoration of “institutional independence” and integrity to the statistical organisations in India freeing critical data releases from the clutch of damaging …

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