Why inflation could rise and interest rates remain elevated under a Trump presidency
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Why inflation could rise and interest rates remain elevated under a Trump presidency

CNN  

London CNN — Inflation is likely to rise in the United States and around the world if newly elected US President Donald Trump follows through on his campaign promises to cut taxes, crack down on immigration and hike tariffs on all imported goods. Trump’s proposed economic policies — including deporting immigrants, across-the-board tariffs and increased political influence on the Fed — would, if fully implemented, “likely lead to a substantial decrease” in US economic output and “a large increase in inflation,” said Antonio Fatás, an economics professor at INSEAD, a business school headquartered in France. Trump’s “vow to kick out immigrants with waves of deportations could also have economic ramifications, potentially pushing up wage bills for companies.” Taxing imports On the campaign trail, Trump proposed a 10-20% tariff on all imported goods — a sharp increase from the current average of 2% or, in many cases, zero. If America’s trading partners retaliate with their own tariffs on US imports, “a material increase in global inflation would follow, while the ensuing hit to world trade would negatively impact growth,” said Investec chief economist Philip Shaw and economist Ellie Henderson. “We also believe that Trump could decide to implement even higher tariffs on economies that run large trade surpluses with the US,” BMI analysts wrote in a note Wednesday.

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History of this topic

Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs
1 week ago

Americans may have to actually brace for stagflation with Trump tariffs

CNN  

New York CNN — Jamie Dimon, head of America’s largest bank, JPMorgan Chase — and commonly referred to as the ‘president of Wall Street’ — spent much of this past year warning that there’s an elevated risk that the US experiences 1970s-esque stagflation, which is when economic growth stagnates while inflation heats up. His prediction, however, has been pooh-poohed by …

Europe’s Rates Head Lower in Readiness for Another Trump Era
1 week, 3 days ago

Europe’s Rates Head Lower in Readiness for Another Trump Era

Live Mint  

Europe’s central banks are taking a determined dovish turn to aid economies bracing for more disruption from Donald Trump’s second stint in the White House. The European Central Bank’s own quarter-point move — bringing its rate to a 1 1/2-year low — was accompanied by President Christine Lagarde’s observation that “the direction of travel currently is very clear.” There’ll probably …

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs
1 week, 4 days ago

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs

China Daily  

Inflation in the US crept up in November, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its efforts to continue trimming interest rates, while President-elect Donald Trump floated expanded tariffs. "The possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook," the bank's statement said. US …

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs
1 week, 4 days ago

Inflation increases against backdrop of higher tariffs

China Daily  

Inflation in the US crept up in November, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve in its efforts to continue trimming interest rates, while President-elect Donald Trump floated expanded tariffs. "The possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook," the bank's statement said. US …

Sticky US inflation and Trump tariffs cast doubt on Fed’s rate cut path, say experts
1 week, 4 days ago

Sticky US inflation and Trump tariffs cast doubt on Fed’s rate cut path, say experts

Live Mint  

Although US CPI inflation recorded its sharpest increase in seven months, it aligned with forecasts and did not disrupt expectations of a 25 bps rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next week. However, the November inflation data highlighted that the Fed still faces significant challenges in bringing inflation below its 2 per cent target, leaving the outlook for future …

New inflation numbers threaten Trump and GOP's plans for tax cuts and tariffs: report
1 week, 5 days ago

New inflation numbers threaten Trump and GOP's plans for tax cuts and tariffs: report

Raw Story  

New Labor Department data released Wednesday showed stubborn inflation continued, which could make it difficult for President-elect Donald Trump and his GOP allies to pass certain legislation they've planned. While the consumer price index increased 2.7 percent in November from 2023, it was also larger than September's 2.4 percent rise, The Washington Post reported. "While Trump criticized President Joe Biden’s …

US inflation rose for second straight month: What are the challenges for Trump now?
1 week, 5 days ago

US inflation rose for second straight month: What are the challenges for Trump now?

Firstpost  

President-elect Donald Trump has made tackling inflation and reducing the cost of living a cornerstone of his campaign. However, the recent uptick in inflation suggests the road ahead may be more complex than anticipated Inflation in the United States ticked up for the second consecutive month in November. The consumer price index, a key measure of inflation, rose to 2.7 …

Could Trump as president accelerate de-dollarisation?
1 week, 5 days ago

Could Trump as president accelerate de-dollarisation?

Hindustan Times  

De-dollarisation, or the ongoing efforts by many countries to reduce dependence on the United States dollar, is not a new phenomenon. However, despite its positives — highest volume of underlying physical trade, increasing trading and settlement volumes, large number of bilateral treaties, and, a remarkably large bond market — there are major countervailing negatives, primarily that the currency is not …

Why Trump and the Federal Reserve could clash in the coming years
2 weeks, 4 days ago

Why Trump and the Federal Reserve could clash in the coming years

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on the promise that his policies would reduce high borrowing costs and lighten the financial burden on American households. And even if Powell reduces the Fed’s benchmark rate, Trump’s own policies could keep other borrowing costs — like mortgage rates — elevated. The Fed would likely respond by slowing or stopping its rate cuts, …

Trump has a problem: America's economy is growing but so is its inflation
3 weeks, 4 days ago

Trump has a problem: America's economy is growing but so is its inflation

Firstpost  

Even as the US economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter, the inflation also grew by 1.9%, complicating the economic outlook that President-elect Donald Trump will inherit in January US President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to fix the United States. Inflation rises by 1.9% — complicating picture for Trump Even as the US economy grew 2.8 per cent year-on-year …

Trump’s tariffs in his first term did little to alter the economy, but this time could be different
Trending News
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Trump’s tariffs in his first term did little to alter the economy, but this time could be different

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump loved to use tariffs on foreign goods during his first presidency. House Democrats put together legislation to strip a president’s ability to unilaterally apply tariffs this drastic, warning that they would likely lead to higher prices for autos, shoes, housing and groceries. Trump’s first term tariffs had a modest impact on economy Trump imposed tariffs on …

month peak as market awaits next Fed cue
1 month ago

month peak as market awaits next Fed cue

Live Mint  

By Brigid Riley TOKYO - The U.S. dollar stuck close to a 13-month high on Friday as investors assessed the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and uncertainty in Europe kept the euro on the back foot, while bitcoin eyed the $100,000 level. The yen, meanwhile, held its ground against the greenback after domestic core inflation figures remained …

Trump 2.0: How high spending, tax cuts could rock global markets, end dollar dominance, warns analyst
1 month, 1 week ago

Trump 2.0: How high spending, tax cuts could rock global markets, end dollar dominance, warns analyst

Live Mint  

The second term of Donald Trump, often referred to as "Trump 2.0," could bring heightened volatility to global stock and bond markets, highlighted a report by LLama Research. The report highlighted that Trump's economic agenda, which is expected to include high public spending, tax cuts, and rising government deficits, could drive up bond yields and create turbulent conditions in financial …

Dollar hits one-year high on Trump trades
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

Dollar hits one-year high on Trump trades

Live Mint  

* Bitcoin surges to new all-time peak * Yen drops below 155 per dollar * Euro falls to one-year low * Dollar index hits highest since November 2023 By Chibuike Oguh NEW YORK, - The U.S. dollar advanced to one-year high against major currencies on Wednesday powered by so-called Trump trades and after U.S. inflation for October came in as …

'Really rude shock' coming to Trump voters on inflation: Nobel Prize-winning economist
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

'Really rude shock' coming to Trump voters on inflation: Nobel Prize-winning economist

Raw Story  

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said that voters who believed President-elect Donald Trump would do a better job of handling inflation than Vice President Kamala Harris are in for a "really rude shock." In a podcast published by the Times this week, Krugman outlined why Trump's proposed economic policies were likely to do the exact …

Fed up with high prices? Here's where things stand with inflation
1 month, 1 week ago

Fed up with high prices? Here's where things stand with inflation

NPR  

Fed up with high prices? Here's where things stand with inflation toggle caption Justin Sullivan/Getty Images By the numbers, inflation in America continues in the same direction: Easing largely — but still sticky. "We both make decent wages, but with the way that inflation has increased, it's like our dollar just doesn't go as far," says Spangler, who helps manage …

The Trump inflation shock could be worse than the last inflation crisis, Larry Summers warns
1 month, 1 week ago

The Trump inflation shock could be worse than the last inflation crisis, Larry Summers warns

CNN  

New York CNN — Larry Summers has some unsolicited advice for President-elect Donald Trump: Don’t keep your campaign promises — unless you want to send prices skyrocketing once again. “In his first term, President Trump instituted tariffs against China that created jobs, spurred investment, and resulted in no inflation,” Karoline Leavitt, a Trump transition spokesperson, said in a statement. “President …

Dollar Rises to Yearly High as Trump’s White House Win Keeps Powering Gains
1 month, 1 week ago

Dollar Rises to Yearly High as Trump’s White House Win Keeps Powering Gains

Live Mint  

The dollar rose Monday, touching its highest level in a year as the US currency added to advances fueled by Donald Trump’s win in the presidential race. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.7% Monday to the highest level since November 2023, with traders betting that Trump’s trade policies will boost the greenback and weigh on major …

Trump’s comeback to bring massive tariffs, trade wars & global economic turmoil?
1 month, 1 week ago

Trump’s comeback to bring massive tariffs, trade wars & global economic turmoil?

Firstpost  

Donald Trump’s return as US President could bring significant economic shifts, with proposed tariffs and stricter immigration policies affecting global trade and emerging markets. These tariffs could also affect global economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund projecting it at just 3.2 per cent for next year. In a recent interview, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath stated that …

Markets hail Trump’s economics
1 month, 1 week ago

Markets hail Trump’s economics

Live Mint  

Twenty-three Nobel laureates in economics warned two weeks ago that Donald Trump’s economic agenda would be disastrous for the U.S. Mr. Trump’s election drove the largest single-day increase in the U.S. dollar in more than two years, and third largest in the last decade. The combination of the steepening yield curve, stable inflation expectations and the rise in stocks indicates …

America’s strengthening dollar will rattle the rest of the world
1 month, 1 week ago

America’s strengthening dollar will rattle the rest of the world

Live Mint  

In 1971 John Connally, then the American treasury secretary, told his European counterparts that the dollar was “our currency, but your problem". Over the following half-century the global economy has transformed, but Connally’s adage still rings true: even though the value of the dollar remains largely set by domestic developments in America, its swings almost always send ripples across the …

Europe’s economy faces sink-or-swim moment as Trump returns
1 month, 1 week ago

Europe’s economy faces sink-or-swim moment as Trump returns

Live Mint  

Wall Street’s verdict is clear: A second Trump presidency is likely to deliver a blow to an export-dependent European Union that is struggling with sclerotic economic growth and ever-multiplying political crises. “I want German car companies to become American car companies," Trump said last month while holding a rally in Savannah, Ga. “If you don’t make your product here, then …

'Wrong direction': CNN analyst says Trump win is already hitting Americans in the pocket
1 month, 2 weeks ago

'Wrong direction': CNN analyst says Trump win is already hitting Americans in the pocket

Raw Story  

President-elect Donald Trump's imminent ascent to the White House is already making it more difficult for Americans to buy homes, an economic analyst says. Home loan interest rates have seen an steep uptick to a 6.8 percent average for 30-year fixed mortgages as the bonds market prepares for Trump's economic policies, CNN business reporter Matt Egan said Thursday. Those plans …

Stock market today: Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Stock market today: Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most U.S. stocks rose Thursday, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again to make things easier for the economy. Trump is pushing for tariffs and other policies that economists say could drive inflation higher, along with the economy’s growth. It gave back a chunk of its surge from the prior day, driven by expectations that Trump’s …

Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Most of Wall Street rises after the Fed cuts interest rates

LA Times  

Trader Edward McCarthy works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange a day after the election. Trump is pushing for tariffs and other policies that economists say could drive inflation higher, along with the economy’s growth. Lyft revved up by 22.8% after the ride-hailing app breezed past Wall Street’s sales and profit expectations, and Ralph Lauren rose 6.6% …

Inflation versus wages: Trump’s stunning comeback explained in two charts
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Inflation versus wages: Trump’s stunning comeback explained in two charts

Al Jazeera  

The rise in prices under the Biden administration proved fatal to Kamala Harris’s election hopes. In exit polls, 45 percent of voters said they were worse off than four years ago, when President Joe Biden took office, versus just 24 percent who said their financial situation had improved. Voters who named inflation as their number one concern broke for Trump …

How are world economies reacting to Trump's imminent return as U.S. president?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

How are world economies reacting to Trump's imminent return as U.S. president?

NPR  

How are world economies reacting to Trump's imminent return as U.S. president? “This is quite a complex network of supply chains, and increased tariffs by the U.S. — which would probably lead to retaliation by other major trading powers — would disrupt those existing supply chains, which leads to uncertainty, increased costs, and therefore has a knock-on effect on companies.” …

Trump Win Wreaks Havoc With Rate-Cut Expectations Around World
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Trump Win Wreaks Havoc With Rate-Cut Expectations Around World

Live Mint  

Central bankers the world over are gauging whether their worst fears over Donald Trump will come to pass following his resounding return to the US presidency. “If a jurisdiction as important as the US imposes tariffs of 60% to any other important jurisdictions — let’s speak about China — I can assure you that the direct effects and the indirect …

Fears of fresh wave of global inflation after Trump declares victory
Trending News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Fears of fresh wave of global inflation after Trump declares victory

The Telegraph  

Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election has reignited fears that he will unleash a fresh wave of global inflation. Analysts said victory for the Republicans – including across Congress – would also push down growth in Europe, extending the bloc’s era of stagnancy. Kallum Pickering, the chief economist at Peel Hunt, said these moves represented the “boon for US-exposed …

What a Trump administration would mean for the global economy and the Reserve Bank
1 month, 2 weeks ago

What a Trump administration would mean for the global economy and the Reserve Bank

ABC  

Some see it as a potential flashpoint. The discontent across middle America and the deep distrust in US institutions follows 40 years of trickle-down economics and globalisation that have laid waste to much of the nation's heartland. What the US election result might mean for Australia Photo shows Vice President Kamala Harris and Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese toast The …

Investors are betting that Donald Trump will boost the dollar
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Investors are betting that Donald Trump will boost the dollar

Live Mint  

Political risk—the notion that an election might have a meaningful impact on financial markets—used to be something that was the concern of emerging-market investors. View Full Image Graphic: The Economist The trade is based on the idea that a second Trump administration would be positive for American stocks, bad-but-not-terrible for Treasuries and great for the dollar. They also believe that …

Top conservative economists warn of huge inflation after election – ESPECIALLY if Trump wins
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Top conservative economists warn of huge inflation after election – ESPECIALLY if Trump wins

Daily Mail  

Conservative-leaning economists are warning that Donald Trump's policies could trigger a new surge in inflation. Both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have put forward policies that they claim will keep inflation under control, while boosting growth for the US economy. Conservative-leaning economists are warning that Donald Trump's policies could cause a spike in inflation A second Trump term would …

Trump's Economic Plans Would Actually Worsen Inflation, Experts Warn
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump's Economic Plans Would Actually Worsen Inflation, Experts Warn

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — With characteristic bravado, Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.” It’s a message tailored for Americans who are still exasperated by the jump in consumer prices that began 3 1/2 years ago. Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump’s …

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed …

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say
2 months, 1 week ago

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

New Indian Express  

WASHINGTON: With characteristic bravado, Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely." Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump's proposals would “reignite’’ inflation, which has plummeted since peaking at 9.1% in 2022 and is nearly back to the Fed’s 2% target. Last month, the Peterson …

Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds
2 months, 4 weeks ago

Trump’s promises would spike inflation and wipe out jobs, study finds

CNN  

CNN — Former President Donald Trump has promised to attack the United States affordability crisis by imposing immense tariffs, carrying out unprecedented deportations and even influencing interest rate decisions. A loss of Fed independence would cause “permanently higher inflation” that “leads to ever-increasing prices across the US economy,” the paper said. At an event in Michigan last week, Trump praised …

Ahead of elections, US Federal Reserve shifts interest rates dramatically to deal with worst inflation
3 months ago

Ahead of elections, US Federal Reserve shifts interest rates dramatically to deal with worst inflation

India TV News  

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half of a percentage point on Wednesday, kicking off what is expected to be a steady easing of monetary policy with a larger-than-usual reduction in borrowing costs that followed growing unease about the health of the job market. "The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges …

Right-wingers plot to give Trump control over Federal Reserve if reelected
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Right-wingers plot to give Trump control over Federal Reserve if reelected

Raw Story  

Right-wing allies of former U.S. President Donald Trump are reportedly crafting a plan to give the executive branch control over Federal Reserve policy decisions, an effort that comes as the presumptive GOP nominee continues to signal his authoritarian intentions for a potential second term. "A small group of the president's allies—whose work is so secretive that even some prominent former …

Inflation in Europe edges down again. But will Houthi attacks on ships spoil the relief?
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Inflation in Europe edges down again. But will Houthi attacks on ships spoil the relief?

Associated Press  

FRANKFURT, Germany — Inflation in Europe edged lower in January to 2.8%, keeping alive speculation about quicker interest rate cuts that would lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers — and help boost the stagnating economy. “This uncertainty could ultimately prompt central banks to delay rate cuts to give themselves more information on the inflationary impact.” Economic models suggested the …

Rising long-term interest rates are posing the latest threat to a US economic ‘soft landing’
1 year, 2 months ago

Rising long-term interest rates are posing the latest threat to a US economic ‘soft landing’

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Surging interest rates are intensifying the challenges for the U.S. economy and threatening to derail the Federal Reserve’s drive to tame inflation without causing a deep recession. The jump in longer-term rates coincides with other threats, from higher gas prices and this week’s resumption of student loan payments to autoworkers’ ongoing strike and the risk of a government …

Europe’s inflation inches up ahead of interest rate decision
1 year, 7 months ago

Europe’s inflation inches up ahead of interest rate decision

Associated Press  

FRANKFURT, Germany — Europe’s painful inflation has inched higher, extending the squeeze on households and keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to unleash what could be another large interest rate increase. Food price inflation eased a little, falling to an annual rate of 13.6% from March’s 15.5%, while energy prices rose a more modest 2.5%. A smaller hike would …

Can US interest rate hikes curb high inflation in new year?
1 year, 11 months ago

Can US interest rate hikes curb high inflation in new year?

China Daily  

People shop at a Target store during Black Friday sales in Chicago, Illinois, US, November 25, 2022. Faced with decades-high inflation, the US Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising the interest rate, which in turn is strengthening the dollar. To deal with the pandemic in the initial days, the Fed lowered interest rates for federal funds to 0-0.25 percent, and …

Europe’s inflation likely hasn’t peaked, ECB’s Lagarde says
2 years ago

Europe’s inflation likely hasn’t peaked, ECB’s Lagarde says

Associated Press  

BRUSSELS — The head of the European Central Bank said Monday she does not believe inflation has peaked after reaching the highest levels on record. ECB President Christine Lagarde also told European lawmakers that the bank isn’t through raising interest rates to combat those price spikes. That means the central bank will “continue to tame inflation with all the tools …

America’s interest rate must not work against the world’s interest
2 years, 1 month ago

America’s interest rate must not work against the world’s interest

Live Mint  

Last month, this column had argued that monetary policy in the US, which has raised interest rates sharply over six months, is not likely to curb inflation but is surely risking a recession. Thus, a stronger dollar is the immediate outcome of higher interest rates in the US, which attract finance capital from everywhere, while risk averse investors are induced …

‘Bad situation’: Soaring US dollar spreads pain worldwide
2 years, 2 months ago

‘Bad situation’: Soaring US dollar spreads pain worldwide

Associated Press  

The cost of living in Cairo has soared so much that security guard Mustafa Gamal had to send his wife and year-old daughter to live with his parents in a village 70 miles south of the Egyptian capital to save money. “A strong dollar makes a bad situation worse in the rest of the world,’’ says Eswar Prasad, a professor …

‘Bad situation’: Soaring U.S. dollar spreads pain worldwide
2 years, 2 months ago

‘Bad situation’: Soaring U.S. dollar spreads pain worldwide

LA Times  

Workers wait for customers outside a car parts shop in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, Kenya. “A strong dollar makes a bad situation worse in the rest of the world,’’ says Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University. The pound recently flirted with dollar parity after Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, announced huge tax cuts that roiled financial …

EXPLAINED: How the Strong US Dollar Can Affect Everyone
2 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINED: How the Strong US Dollar Can Affect Everyone

News 18  

The buck isn’t stopping. Here’s a look at what’s driving the U.S. dollar higher and what it can mean for investors and households: WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO SAY THE DOLLAR IS STRONGER? The U.S. Dollar index, which measures the dollar against the euro, yen and other major currencies, has climbed more than 14% this year. Partly because of that …

EXPLAINER: How the strong U.S. dollar can affect everyone
2 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINER: How the strong U.S. dollar can affect everyone

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — The buck isn’t stopping. Here’s a look at what’s driving the U.S. dollar higher and what it can mean for investors and households: WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO SAY THE DOLLAR IS STRONGER? That’s about 30% more and one of the biggest moves the U.S. dollar has made against another currency. The U.S. Dollar index, which measures …

Dollar’s rise spells trouble for global economies
2 years, 3 months ago

Dollar’s rise spells trouble for global economies

Live Mint  

The U.S. dollar is experiencing a once-in-a-generation rally. “It’s not going to be contained.” A stronger dollar makes the debts that emerging-market governments and companies have taken out in U.S. dollars more expensive to pay back. “Whether the ECB turns more hawkish, whether there’s some improvement on the economic outlook, whatever happens, it’s generally offset by further dollar strength,” he …

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