Capturing the monsoon: its variance and the message
For the first time since 2018, India has reported a deficit monsoon. From June to September this year, India received 82 cm of rainfall, nearly 6% lower than the 89 cm that is considered ‘normal’. Between 2019 and 2022, the Indian monsoon was significantly impacted by the converse phenomenon – a cooling La Niña — that sometimes is associated with above normal rainfall. While on one hand, August — the second-most important monsoon month — posted a third less than its normal, several States in north India, which were expecting minimal rainfall, were deluged following multiple episodes of record rainfall. The India Meteorological Department has also forecast a ‘normal’ north-east monsoon from October to December and ‘normal to above-normal rainfall’ over large parts of north-west India and south peninsular India.
Hyderabad-based INCOIS forecasts La Nina climate conditions from July to February
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