Trading more within Asia makes economic sense
The HinduSouth Asia should now have a re-look at regional trade across Asia after the warning by the International Monetary Fund on January 31, 2023, that global trade would slow down from 5.4% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2023. A recently published paper in an IMF book, “South Asia’s Path to Resilient Growth”, argues that a strong base exists for South Asia trading more with dynamic East Asia: since the 1990s, South Asia-East Asia trade has gathered pace, which is linked to India’s trade re-aligning towards East Asia through its ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ policies, South Asia adopting reforms, and also China offshoring global supply chains to Asia. The handful of free trade agreements linking economies in South Asia with East Asia may rise to 30 by 2030. Improving SEZ processes and outcomes in South Asia requires ensuring macroeconomic and political stability, adopting good practice regulatory policies towards investors, providing reliable electricity and 5G broadband cellular technology, and also upgrading worker skills. Accordingly, a narrower geographical coverage between South Asia and Southeast Asia may be a building block for eventual trade integration across Asia.