Leroux: How a theoretical salary cap drop changes the 2020 offseason
New York TimesOne of the most-asked questions about the 2020 offseason is what happens if the salary cap drops below the most recent projection of $115 million. It proves difficult to make a definitive estimate of where the cap number will end up, especially since it is something the owners and players can negotiate independent of what ends up happening with the 2019-20 season but for the purposes of this piece I will drop the $115 million estimate down to $107 million, which would be slightly lower than the current season. Here are the largest impacts of a cap drop: The Luxury Tax With so few teams using cap space even at the $115 million projection, the biggest effect is actually not on them or even elite free agents. Here is a table of how the starting salaries would change: Starting Salaries Cap # $115 Million $107 Million 0-6 Years Exp $28,750,000 $26,750,000 7-9 Years Exp $34,500,000 $32,100,000 10+ Years Exp $40,250,000 $37,450,000 That is significant on its own but remember that the first season of a contract also provides the basis for raises in future years. 2020 First Round Picks The “rookie scale” which specifies contracts for everyone drafted in the first round is based on that season’s salary cap as well, so 2020 picks would see effects on all four years of their first NBA contracts in addition to their cap holds as restricted free agents all the way in 2024.