Delimitation could reinforce BJP’s hegemony
4 days, 19 hours ago

Delimitation could reinforce BJP’s hegemony

The Hindu  

The anxiety about delimitation is not only about the potential reduction of political power for peninsular States to the benefit of heartland ones. An analysis suggests that with the same vote share, the BJP would have gained 14 extra seats in 2019 and six extra seats in 2024 if Lok Sabha constituencies had been delimited across State boundaries according to the 2011 Census. An apportionment of the possible post-delimitation number of Lok Sabha seats in each State to parties as per their actual share of votes and seats in 2019 and 2024 suggests that all the extra seats the BJP stands to gain are in its key strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Jharkhand and Haryana, while it may be marginally affected by the reduction of total seats in Karnataka, Odisha, Himachal Pradesh, and West Bengal. If opposition to the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, U.P., and Bihar is weak, the BJP’s capacity to win a Lok Sabha majority from a fewer number of States will increase. If the 2019 results had been realigned based on seats delimited using the 2011 Census, the NDA would have had a majority in the Lok Sabha just by winning seats from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Delhi.

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