Opinion | What the rupee weakness says about fundamentals
6 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | What the rupee weakness says about fundamentals

Live Mint  

English economist Joan Robinson once remarked that for every statement about India, the opposite is equally true. Around the 71st anniversary of India’s independence, the rupee too crossed the 70 mark against the US dollar. It may not be correct to focus on India’s bilateral trade deficit with China but it is right to be concerned about the overall trade deficit. While the higher price for crude oil this year is a large part of the explanation for India’s higher trade deficit between April and July 2018, compared to April-July 2017, non-oil and non-gold imports in this four-month period were higher by 10.7% over the same period last year. India’s overall fiscal deficit was 6.5% of gross domestic product for 2017-18 as per official numbers.

India Economy Indian Currency Rate Rupee Deficit Dollar Real Terms Rupee Weakness  fundamentals  opinion  dollar  indias  inflation  indian  rate  weakness  currency  deficit  trade  economy  rupee

History of this topic

As rupee slides, a primer on how to manage an emerging market currency
1 day, 5 hours ago

As rupee slides, a primer on how to manage an emerging market currency

Live Mint  

The past two years have been hard on emerging market currencies. The year 2024 should have been better—given easing inflation and lower interest rates—but Donald Trump’s election as the next US president has renewed uncertainty and plunged EM currencies into chaos again. Fiscal matters If a trade deficit is India’s problem, turn to Brazil: even a whopping $87 billion trade …

Rupee’s fall sparks a war of words between the ruling party, Opposition
1 day, 19 hours ago

Rupee’s fall sparks a war of words between the ruling party, Opposition

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee's depreciation beyond ₹86 against the US dollar on Monday sparked a war of words between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the opposition Congress party over the currency's economic performance during their respective terms. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh took a dig at Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media platform X over the currency's depreciation, questioning Modi's …

Rupee to face pressure as upbeat US data reignites dollar uptrend
1 week ago

Rupee to face pressure as upbeat US data reignites dollar uptrend

Live Mint  

By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, Jan 8 - The Indian rupee is likely to open weaker on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. economic data lifted U.S. bond yields, prompting the dollar to resume its uptrend. The dollar index dipped during Asia trade to 108.5 after rising 0.3% on Tuesday as data showed that job openings in the U.S. grew to 8.098 million, …

Currency concerns: on the rupee
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Currency concerns: on the rupee

The Hindu  

It has been a tumultuous time for the Indian rupee even as the Reserve Bank of India has been actively stepping into the foreign exchange market to stem its free fall in pursuit of what it calls an ‘orderly’ exchange movement. The Donald Trump factor added a fresh headwind with the dollar strengthening since his U.S. presidential electoral victory, and …

5 factors pulling the Indian rupee down to record low: Trump, trade & more
2 weeks, 4 days ago

5 factors pulling the Indian rupee down to record low: Trump, trade & more

Firstpost  

The Indian rupee has come under immense pressure and touch a historic low of 85.81 against the US dollar on Friday. Find out five big factors that are weighing on the INR The Indian rupee touched an all-time low on the afternoon of Friday, December 27, 2024, and traded at 85.81 against the US dollar. At the interbank foreign exchange, …

Mint Quick Edit | Has the rupee weakened or strengthened?
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Mint Quick Edit | Has the rupee weakened or strengthened?

Live Mint  

On the face of it, the Indian rupee seems to be weakening, having fallen to a low of around 85.26 to the dollar. The rupee’s real effective exchange rate, which measures its value relative to a basket of trade-relevant currencies, is at a peak. A part of the rupee’s relative strength may be attributed to market intervention by the Reserve …

The bad and good of rupee weakening against dollar
3 weeks, 1 day ago

The bad and good of rupee weakening against dollar

India Today  

The rupee, on December 19, fell to a record low against the dollar, breaching the 85 mark for the first time. Although the rupee has been seeing much volatility in recent months, it saw a big drop against the dollar ever since Donald Trump won the US presidential election, falling from 84.11 to a dollar on November 5 to 85.07 …

Rupee slips to all-time low pressured by weak yuan, importer dollar bids
3 weeks, 2 days ago

Rupee slips to all-time low pressured by weak yuan, importer dollar bids

Live Mint  

By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI - The Indian rupee weakened to its lifetime low on Monday, pressured by weakness in the offshore Chinese yuan and strong dollar bids from importers, likely related to month-end payments, while state-run banks' dollar sales capped the decline. The rupee declined to 85.12 against the U.S. dollar, hitting an all-time for the fifth consecutive trading session …

Rupee at 85 to a Dollar: Sinking Towards 100?
3 weeks, 2 days ago

Rupee at 85 to a Dollar: Sinking Towards 100?

The Quint  

India has indeed developed a strong export franchise in not only IT services but also in setting up global capability centers that employ over 1.5 million talented Indians for highly productive use. India, in contrast to its merchandise counterpart, import much less of services, and generate good surplus despite Indians’ itch to travel abroad and seek overseas education. India exported …

Rupee hits all-time low against US dollar. Why is it under pressure?
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Rupee hits all-time low against US dollar. Why is it under pressure?

India Today  

The Indian rupee weakened to a record low of 85.10 against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by persistent dollar strength following robust US economic data that reinforced the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve’s projection of fewer rate cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation has strengthened the US dollar, making emerging market currencies like the …

Rupee weakens to lifetime low hurt by merchant dollar bids, weak equities
4 weeks ago

Rupee weakens to lifetime low hurt by merchant dollar bids, weak equities

Live Mint  

By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, Dec 18 - The Indian rupee hit its all-time low on Wednesday, pressured by strong dollar demand from importers and likely outflows from local equities, while intervention by the Reserve Bank of India curbed losses, traders said. Weakness in regional currencies ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision due in U.S. trading hours also hurt the …

Indian Rupee Decline: Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.92 against U.S. dollar
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Indian Rupee Decline: Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.92 against U.S. dollar

The Hindu  

The rupee dropped 1 paisa to hit a new lifetime low of 84.92 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in domestic equities. “The Indian rupee is expected to open at its lowest after a record number in respect of imports and a record trade deficit for November …

Record trade deficit adds to rupee’s challenges, may open to all-time low
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Record trade deficit adds to rupee’s challenges, may open to all-time low

Live Mint  

By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, Dec 17 - The Indian rupee may slip to an all-time low on Tuesday with the currency, already under pressure from slowing growth, choppy equity flows and a dollar rally, will have to contend with an unexpected widening in trade deficit to a record high. The jump in gold imports and weak exports pushed India's merchandise …

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars
Top News
4 weeks, 1 day ago

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars

Live Mint  

-- India’s trade deficit expanded to a record high in November, as the nation’s import bill ballooned, particularly due to a rise in gold shipments. The gap between exports and imports stood at $37.8 billion in November, trade ministry data showed Monday, much higher than the $23 billion deficit forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. A widening trade deficit …

The great unknown: how a Trump presidency could affect the world, in five charts
1 month ago

The great unknown: how a Trump presidency could affect the world, in five charts

Live Mint  

US President Harry S. Truman once famously asked for a “one-handed economist" because he was tired of economists who, instead of giving decisive answers, would say, “On the one hand, this, and on the other hand, that." A plan to impose across-the-board tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China reinforced the view that tariffs would increase prices and keep US interest …

Rupee ends marginally lower, near-term bearish bias tipped to persist
1 month ago

Rupee ends marginally lower, near-term bearish bias tipped to persist

Live Mint  

By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, Dec 9 - The Indian rupee closed slightly weaker on Monday, weighed down by a decline in its Asian peers with analysts expecting the local currency to continue facing headwinds amid persistent strength in the U.S. dollar. While U.S. labour market data released on Friday drove U.S. bond yields lower on heightened expectations of a Federal …

Rupee's slide: What it means for economy, markets, and you
1 month, 1 week ago

Rupee's slide: What it means for economy, markets, and you

India Today  

The rupee’s recent tumble to a record low of 84.73 against the US dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the economy and people’s daily lives. Although the rupee has recovered slightly today due to gains in the Chinese yuan, the recent drop reflects a confluence of global and domestic factors, creating ripple effects that extend beyond currency markets. …

Data dive: Should RBI let the rupee fall?
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Data dive: Should RBI let the rupee fall?

Live Mint  

The depreciation of the rupee has always been a political hot potato even though it is a natural trend for an emerging market. Several experts including the former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian have questioned the RBI’s intervention, while many economists have argued for a weaker rupee to boost trade competitiveness. However, the flip side is that a weaker rupee …

INR vs USD: Indian National Rupee hits record low of 84.38 against the US Dollar; Will it depreciate further?
2 months ago

INR vs USD: Indian National Rupee hits record low of 84.38 against the US Dollar; Will it depreciate further?

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee hit a record low on Monday against the US dollar, reflecting broader weakness among Asian currencies under pressure following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.05% at 105.05, near the four-month peak achieved last week following Trump’s win. …

Rupee slides, still better than other currencies: Is India, China growth threatening dollar?
2 months, 1 week ago

Rupee slides, still better than other currencies: Is India, China growth threatening dollar?

India Today  

The Indian rupee is down, but so are other major currencies against the US dollar. Despite its downward trajectory, however, the rupee is still well-placed against major currencies such as the Brazilian real, the Russian ruble, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian dollar. The Indian rupee has slid by 1.1 per cent against the dollar since January 1. In contrast, …

Rupee rises 10 paise to 83.53 against U.S. dollar in early trade
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Rupee rises 10 paise to 83.53 against U.S. dollar in early trade

The Hindu  

The rupee appreciated 10 paise to 83.53 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday, on the overall dollar weakness in the overseas market. Forex traders said the U.S. dollar has weakened against majors post the weak consumer confidence print. "The Indian rupee which depreciated on Tuesday opened stronger on the overall dollar weakness against Asian currencies and European …

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?

The Hindu  

The story so far: After a positive start to goods exports in the first quarter of 2024-25, there has been a blip in momentum. On the exports front, 18 of India’s top 30 segments recorded growth in July and 19 in August, but the big-ticket sectors like petroleum, and gems and jewellery, have tanked significantly. While gems and jewellery exports …

Indian Rupee's stability and low cost makes it attractive for carry trade, Bank of America says
7 months ago

Indian Rupee's stability and low cost makes it attractive for carry trade, Bank of America says

Hindustan Times  

The Indian rupee is stable and inexpensive compared to its emerging market peers, making it a favorite for carry traders, according to Bank of America Corp, Bloomberg reported. Foreign exchange A carry trade is when a foreign exchange trader borrows money in a currency from a country with low-interest rates and converts the borrowed amount into another currency from a …

Rupee ends 12 paise lower at 83.18 against the US dollar
1 year ago

Rupee ends 12 paise lower at 83.18 against the US dollar

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee ended 12 paise lower against the US dollar on Tuesday tracking losses in Asian peers as the US Federal Reserve policymakers tempered US rate cut expectations. While local dollar demand from importers weighed on the rupee, positive sentiment in the domestic equity markets amid foreign fund inflows limited the downfall. The domestic equity market ended higher amid …

Explained: Why surging oil prices is bad for Indian rupee
1 year, 3 months ago

Explained: Why surging oil prices is bad for Indian rupee

India Today  

The Indian rupee could come under pressure and decline significantly in comparison to the US dollar, analysts have warned. Analysts quoted in a Reuters report fear that a combination of factors, including surging crude oil prices and a rally of the US dollar index, could lead to a significant decline in the Indian currency’s value. Oil on the boil Brent …

Turkey’s lira hits record low, stocks rise after Erdogan’s win
1 year, 7 months ago

Turkey’s lira hits record low, stocks rise after Erdogan’s win

Al Jazeera  

The Turkish leader won the presidency for a third time after a run-off vote on Sunday. The Turkish lira plunged to record lows after the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a sign that currency markets are not confident in the country’s economic future after the longtime leader’s victory. But Turkish stocks, on the other hand, rose as Erdogan entered …

Rupee ends 9 paise higher against US dollar
1 year, 7 months ago

Rupee ends 9 paise higher against US dollar

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee closed 9 paise higher against the US dollar Tuesday amid a weaker dollar and improving economic data. The dollar paused its recent rally and slipped from five-week highs amid worries over weak US economic data and the country's debt ceiling. “The rupee's movement is mostly tied to global worries like US debt ceiling, which is impacting the …

Indian rupee ends 2022 as worst-performing Asian currency
2 years ago

Indian rupee ends 2022 as worst-performing Asian currency

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee ended 2022 as the worst-performing Asian currency with a fall of 11.3%, its biggest annual decline since 2013, as the dollar rocketed on the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance to tame inflation. Heading into 2023, market participants believe the rupee would trade with an appreciation bias, finding relief from easing commodity prices and hopeful of …

India’s economic growth ’extremely fragile’, needs all support: RBI MPC member
2 years ago

India’s economic growth ’extremely fragile’, needs all support: RBI MPC member

Live Mint  

India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, said RBI Monetary Policy Committee member Jayanth R Varma on Friday. He said that exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, and now other engines of growth, i.e, private …

Markets end in red; Sensex falls for 3rd day in row, IT stocks worst hit
2 years, 1 month ago

Markets end in red; Sensex falls for 3rd day in row, IT stocks worst hit

Live Mint  

Indian markets corrected steeply on Tuesday tracking feeble Asian counterparts as global investors turned cautious after strong US services data sparked bets for higher terminal rates by Federal Reserve. Surprisingly, the Indian rupee reached its highest level since November 7th against the US dollar due to suspected Yuan-Rupee carry trade unwind and corporate dollar outflows. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst …

FM Nirmala Sitharaman Is Right: Rupee Hasn’t Weakened, Dollar Has Strengthened - News18
2 years, 2 months ago

FM Nirmala Sitharaman Is Right: Rupee Hasn’t Weakened, Dollar Has Strengthened - News18

News 18  

On 16 October 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman made a statement: “I look at it not as rupee sliding but dollar strengthening.” Needless to say, this statement created a political outrage, with former Finance Minister P Chidambaram sarcastically remarking: “FM said that the rupee is not weakening but the dollar is strengthening. Hence for this analysis, the performance of the …

Higher rates, weaker rupee can restore India’s trade balance
2 years, 2 months ago

Higher rates, weaker rupee can restore India’s trade balance

Live Mint  

On the one hand, India’s foreign exchange reserves remain elevated at $533 billion—a respectable 8.6 months of goods import cover—even after a fall of about $100 billion since the start of the year. India’s current account deficit likely widened to about 5% of gross domestic product in the quarter ended September on the back of elevated oil imports and slowing …

Fundamentals of economy is good; rupee is holding its ground, says Nirmala Sitharaman
2 years, 2 months ago

Fundamentals of economy is good; rupee is holding its ground, says Nirmala Sitharaman

The Hindu  

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that the Indian rupee is holding ground at a time when dollar has strengthened, asserting that the fundamentals of India's economy is strong and the inflation is low compared to other parts of the world. This is what I keep repeating that inflation is also at a manageable level,” Ms. Sitharaman said. Responding …

With the rupee under pressure, what next
2 years, 3 months ago

With the rupee under pressure, what next

The Hindu  

Even without getting into any quantitative measure of vulnerability, it is quite clear that the rupee is under pressure. In the last one year, it depreciated by over 10%, has crossed the psychological marker of ₹80 to a dollar, and India’s foreign exchange reserves are down by more than $100 billion. Arguably, the pressure on the rupee has softened, if …

Rupee’s hitting record lows; Key reasons explained
2 years, 3 months ago

Rupee’s hitting record lows; Key reasons explained

Live Mint  

The Indian Rupee has been making headlines every day in recent weeks as it reaches new lows. On Tuesday, the Indian Rupee fell to a record low of 81.77 against the dollar Following the US Fed's rate hike last week, the rupee fell 2.25%. In 2013, the RBI sold a net of $14 billion in the June-to-September period after the …

Indian rupee showed more resilience than other currencies in recent years: Goyal
2 years, 4 months ago

Indian rupee showed more resilience than other currencies in recent years: Goyal

The Hindu  

Indian rupee has shown more resilience than most of the other currencies in recent years and the compounded average growth rate of depreciation is lower as compared to pre-2014, Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal has said. I am happy that the Indian rupee has shown more resilience than most of the currencies in recent years," Mr. Goyal said …

India’s record trade deficit adds to external balance challenges, rupee woes
2 years, 5 months ago

India’s record trade deficit adds to external balance challenges, rupee woes

Live Mint  

India's record high trade deficit in July signals a further deterioration in the country's external balances, which is likely to keep the rupee under pressure, analysts said on Wednesday. Trade deficit in Asia's third largest economy widened to an all-time high of $31 billion, data on Tuesday showed, prompting concerns about the country's ability to fund its current account deficit …

Data | Why the rupee is under pressure — explained in seven charts
2 years, 5 months ago

Data | Why the rupee is under pressure — explained in seven charts

The Hindu  

Till recently, the rupee was recording fresh lows every other day. Deteriorating CAD A widening trade deficit causes the current account deficit to deteriorate which in turn adds pressure on the local currency. With slowing global economic growth and looming recession fears, a depreciating currency may not help spur exports which otherwise would have helped at least partly bridge the …

Rupee faces risk of further decline to 82 vs USD in near term: Experts
2 years, 5 months ago

Rupee faces risk of further decline to 82 vs USD in near term: Experts

Live Mint  

Indian rupee may further depreciate to 82 to a dollar in the near term due to widening of trade deficit and expected aggressive rate hike by the US Fed later this week to tame record high inflation, economists said. Economists are of the opinion that the rupee after touching a life-time low may settle around 78 to a dollar by …

Currency caution: The Hindu Editorial on the Indian rupee’s depreciation
2 years, 5 months ago

Currency caution: The Hindu Editorial on the Indian rupee’s depreciation

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee is experiencing its worst slump in four years. While the Indian currency is not alone in faring poorly against the greenback, with even the historically strong euro and the British pound taking a hammering and weakening by more than the rupee has, the fact that other currencies too have appreciably lost value against the dollar can only …

Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience
2 years, 5 months ago

Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee has depreciated by around 7% against the U.S. dollar, since the start of the year, in response to various domestic and global factors. Specifically, a widening current account deficit, persistent risk-off sentiment as a result of geopolitical tensions, ‘a strengthening dollar index, and continuous sell-off by foreign portfolio investors have all put pressure on the rupee’. Elevated …

Rupee slips to historic low at 80.05 a dollar
2 years, 5 months ago

Rupee slips to historic low at 80.05 a dollar

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee weakened to a historic closing low of 80.05 per U.S. dollar on Wednesday as foreign portfolio investors continued to sell their Indian holdings and head back to the safety of the dollar and domestic oil importers too bought the U.S. currency for funding purchases. Sugandha Sachdeva, VP, Commodities & Currency Research, Religare Broking, attributed the rupee’s fall …

Rupee hits all-time low of 80 against US dollar in early trade
2 years, 5 months ago

Rupee hits all-time low of 80 against US dollar in early trade

India Today  

The Indian Rupee on Tuesday, July 19, sunk to a record low of 80 per US Dollar in early trade for the second day in a row, reported news agency ANI. The Union government on Monday admitted in Parliament that the value of the Indian rupee against the dollar has fallen by Rs 16.08 in the last eight years. Capital …

Costlier Oil Prices, Tight Financial Conditions, FPI Outflows Responsible For Rupee Fall: Sitharaman
2 years, 5 months ago

Costlier Oil Prices, Tight Financial Conditions, FPI Outflows Responsible For Rupee Fall: Sitharaman

News 18  

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said global factors, such as a surge in crude oil prices and tight financial conditions, along with foreign portfolio investment outflows, are responsible for the fall in the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. “Global factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, soaring crude oil prices and tightening of global financial …

INR vs USD: Rupee gains against dollar ahead of ECB meeting
2 years, 5 months ago

INR vs USD: Rupee gains against dollar ahead of ECB meeting

Live Mint  

Rupee vs dollar: On expectations of 25 bps to 50 bps interest rate hike in the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting scheduled on 21st July 2022 and dollar index trading slightly lower in early morning session, Indian National Rupee gained 6 paise against the US dollar and ascended to 79.76 levels on Monday. According to currency experts, dollar index …

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us
2 years, 6 months ago

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has historically weakened against the US dollar, but bouts of volatility never fail to set alarm bells ringing. A ‘shock’ could take the form of sharp interest rate increases by systemically important central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, or a financial crisis—all of which create a risk-off scenario, leading to …

Indian rupee hits record low on CAD concerns
2 years, 6 months ago

Indian rupee hits record low on CAD concerns

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee hit a record low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns of a wider current account deficit came to the forefront after the country's trade deficit hit an all-time high in June. Data late on Monday showed India's June trade deficit widened to a record high of $25.63 billion, following a rise in crude oil and …

Rupee hits record low of 79.04 against US dollar
2 years, 6 months ago

Rupee hits record low of 79.04 against US dollar

India Today  

The rupee hit a record low against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday amid concerns of a widening trade deficit and a sell off of assets by foreign investors. India is trying to "address volatility" in the rupee that has tumbled to record lows against the dollar in recent weeks, a government official said on Monday, as per …

Rupee hits rock bottom against US dollar, share markets down | Here are why
2 years, 6 months ago

Rupee hits rock bottom against US dollar, share markets down | Here are why

India Today  

The rupee hit a fresh record low of 79.11 against the dollar even as the Sensex and Nifty began the second quarter with heavy losses on Friday. While the BSE Sensex slid 0.95 per cent or 501.34 points to 52,094.25, the NSE Nifty 50 index dropped as much as 0.97 per cent or 152.50 points to 15,511.05. Oil-to-retail conglomerate Reliance …

A weakening rupee and its broad implications on our economy
2 years, 6 months ago

A weakening rupee and its broad implications on our economy

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has weakened by about 5% over the course this year so far, in response to domestic and global factors. The rupee is not alone: It could very well be said that the latest turn of events in currency markets is more of a dollar strengthening situation, as the US Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking spree has bolstered the dollar …

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