China’s export ban on key minerals may have a silver lining for the US
China is the handmaiden to the globe’s energy transition—and will continue to be so once an anti-transition president occupies the White House again next month. US government support for critical minerals development doesn’t necessarily run through specifically green policy frameworks, therefore. Congressional Republicans are likely to back continued support for critical minerals because, even if they share—at least rhetorically—Trump’s antipathy to the energy transition, their districts are overwhelmingly set to benefit from investments in clean-tech supply chains. Besides grants, loans and domestic-content subsidies, the incoming administration has other tools to boost US critical mineral production, as outlined in a recent essay for Benchmark Minerals by Gregory Wischer and Morgan Bazilian of the Colorado School of Mines’ Payne Institute for Public Policy. In a sense, US weakness in critical minerals offers a source of strength: Trump may slow the uptake of things like EVs, but US production of these materials starts from such a low base that even reduced demand forecasts represent a big market.
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