In the wake of a failed mutiny, what is the real state of play in Russia?
The IndependentIf the minute-by-minute dramas of last weekend in Russia seem both a long way away and a long time ago, that is because a great many people want you to think that, or want you to see it in a new light. Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief mutineer and the leader of the Wagner mercenary force, which halted its northward advance more than half way to Moscow after taking control of Russia’s southern military command without a fight, is now said to be in Belarus. This is not just that Putin has been weakened, but that his days are numbered, and that even if Prigozhin appeared a lone wolf, he enjoyed the patronage of influential members of Russia’s top brass – including that of a former commander in the Ukraine war, Sergei Surovikin, who may or may not now be under arrest. The overall message is that Putin’s Kremlin is hopelessly split, over the Ukraine war as over much else, that Putin is only just hanging on to power, and that he could be gone tomorrow – an eventuality everyone needs to prepare for. Yes, there was a serious wobble at the top of Russia last weekend, but Putin remains president – albeit a weaker president – and for the moment there is no obvious alternative in the wings.
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