Economists See Up To 40% Chance of US Recession Within A Year; Check Details
2 years, 6 months ago

Economists See Up To 40% Chance of US Recession Within A Year; Check Details

News 18  

Goldman Sachs economists have now revised upward the chances of entering a recession in the next one year. It had earlier planned a 50-bps hike for the June meeting but the US consumer inflation came higher than expected in May, at a four-decade high of 8.6 per cent. According to the latest data, consumer price inflation in the US increased 8.6 per cent year-on-year in May, which is the largest increase since December 1981 and followed an 8.3 per cent advance in April. Natural gas prices in May jumped 8 per cent, the pace is the highest since October 2005, while electricity rate also rose 1.3 per cent. Food prices in May rose 1.2 per cent as part of the impact of supply chain disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

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History of this topic

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Global shares jump on Wall Street’s return to its highest level in over a year
1 year, 5 months ago

Global shares jump on Wall Street’s return to its highest level in over a year

The Hindu  

Global shares rose on July 13, boosted by Wall Street's return to its highest level in more than a year after a report showed U.S. consumer inflation cooled a bit more than expected last month. Chinese exports tumbled 12.4% in June from a year earlier as demand weakened after the Central Bank raised interest rates to curb inflation even as …

At 5%, BoE hikes rates to 15-year high in fight against inflation; check details
1 year, 6 months ago

At 5%, BoE hikes rates to 15-year high in fight against inflation; check details

Live Mint  

The Bank of England on June 22 lifted its key interest rate by a half-point to five per cent or 50 basis points to tackle stubbornly high UK inflation. Britain remains an outlier in the Group of Seven nations, with consumer prices rising four times the BOE’s two per cent target in May and more than double the rate in …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 4 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

'US at very, very high risk of inflation', says Goldman Sachs' Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein
2 years, 7 months ago

'US at very, very high risk of inflation', says Goldman Sachs' Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein

Firstpost  

Blankfein stated that there is a ’narrow path’ for the Federal Reserve to avoid recession. The investment banker added that bringing inflation down to the central bank’s target of 2 percent is ‘going to involve some pain’ The United States is at “very, very high risk” of recession, according to Goldman Sachs’ Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein. According to Blankfein, there …

Money supply poses global inflation risks
3 years, 7 months ago

Money supply poses global inflation risks

China Daily  

A bank staff member counts RMB and US dollar notes in Nantong, Jiangsu province, on Aug 28, 2019. The scale of asset purchases ought to shrink somewhat this year, although our baseline forecast still suggests they would add some 4-7 percentage points to broad money growth this year. Add to that our forecasts for private credit expansion, and broad money …

Money supply poses global inflation risks
3 years, 7 months ago

Money supply poses global inflation risks

China Daily  

A bank staff member counts RMB and US dollar notes in Nantong, Jiangsu province, on Aug 28, 2019. The scale of asset purchases ought to shrink somewhat this year, although our baseline forecast still suggests they would add some 4-7 percentage points to broad money growth this year. Add to that our forecasts for private credit expansion, and broad money …

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