Podcast: India’s economic woes and the patchy history of election polling
5 years, 10 months ago

Podcast: India’s economic woes and the patchy history of election polling

Hindustan Times  

This week on Grand Tamasha, Milan Vaishnav discusses the latest economic figures from India with Roshan Kishore. The Government of India reported that GDP growth in the third quarter of 2019 slipped to 6.6 percent—the slowest pace in five quarters. Milan and Roshan discuss the political implications of India’s slowing economy, the nature of rural distress, and how to make sense of India’s contested employment data. Then, Milan speaks with Neelanjan Sircar, one of India’s leading public opinion experts. Sircar, an assistant professor at Ashoka University and senior visiting fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, explains why pollsters have such a hard time forecasting elections in India and how to make sense of the public opinion surveys that are coming in ahead of the 2019 general elections.

India Milan Sircar  election  growth  podcast  roshan  indias  public  political  milan  polling  economic  patchy  woes  sircar  sense  opinion  history  india

History of this topic

​Growth chill: On the economy
6 days, 16 hours ago

​Growth chill: On the economy

The Hindu  

The National Statistics Office has confirmed emerging fears about the economy’s evidently sluggish trajectory through this year in its first Gross Domestic Product estimates for 2024-25. While the election-focused first quarter hit public capital spending, the second quarter was marred by weak demand and still underwhelming public capex, dragging GDP growth to a seven-quarter low of 5.4%. The NSO’s projection …

India’s chief economic adviser calls for deregulation to spur growth
1 month, 2 weeks ago

India’s chief economic adviser calls for deregulation to spur growth

Live Mint  

New Delhi: India’s chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran emphasised the need for several measures including deregulation and a focus on key structural reforms after the country’s economic growth slowed for a second consecutive quarter. Nageswaran attributed the slowdown in India’s GDP growth during the second quarter to a combination of global factors, including excess manufacturing capacity in other regions …

Cong jabs Modi government over Economic Survey: ‘Cherry-picked view of economy’
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Cong jabs Modi government over Economic Survey: ‘Cherry-picked view of economy’

Hindustan Times  

The Congress on Monday called the Economic Survey 2024 tabled by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman as a ‘cherry-picked view’ of the Indian economy. The Economic Survey 2023-24 presents a cherry-picked view of the economy, but we hope that tomorrow’s Budget faces up to the country’s realities,” Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh posted on X while sharing his statement on the …

Explained: Why Economic Survey 2024 has taken a cautious stance
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Explained: Why Economic Survey 2024 has taken a cautious stance

India Today  

The Economic Survey 2023-24 has adopted a more cautious stance on India’s growth prospects, projecting an expansion of 6.5% to 7% for the fiscal year. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran highlighted that while the Indian economy remains resilient, it faces potential challenges from geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of cheaper imports that could impact private capital formation. "The Indian …

What’s on the voters’ minds as India heads into a 6-week national election
8 months, 4 weeks ago

What’s on the voters’ minds as India heads into a 6-week national election

Associated Press  

NEW DELHI — Raj Sud, 94, has voted in almost every election held in independent India, bearing witness to the eventful journey of a diverse, and now the world’s most populous, democracy over the last 76 years. Niranjan Kapasi, 89 Dhiren Singh, 58, financial consultant talks to the Associated Press about the key issues in the national elections, in New …

Ecostani | What’s on the mind of Indian voters as we go in for general elections in a week?
9 months ago

Ecostani | What’s on the mind of Indian voters as we go in for general elections in a week?

Hindustan Times  

The CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey shows that unemployment, price rise, development and corruption were the four biggest issues in voters’ minds. The construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, India’s international standing and Hindutva — the core poll plank of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party — also find resonance among the voters. The survey, conducted through questionnaire-based in-person interviews, happened before …

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | Is the Indian economy booming in the 76th year of independence?
1 year, 4 months ago

ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | Is the Indian economy booming in the 76th year of independence?

The Hindu  

Published : Aug 24, 2023 11:00 IST - 6 MINS READ On the completion of 76 years since Indian Independence, a wide range of “informed” opinions from government spokespersons, non-government analysts, and large sections of the domestic and foreign media, enthusiastically or grudgingly declared that, as an economy, India is doing very well. This bounce back from the 5.8 per …

The issue is not about India’s GDP, but its JDP
1 year, 4 months ago

The issue is not about India’s GDP, but its JDP

The Hindu  

Participating in the debate on the motion of no-confidence in Parliament last week, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman waxed eloquent about India’s Gross Domestic Product growing in double digits, the Indian economy being the world’s fastest, and also highlighted glowing reports by foreign institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and Morgan Stanley. Economist-politician Subramanian Swamy too has weighed in …

Top news of the day: May 31, 2023
1 year, 7 months ago

Top news of the day: May 31, 2023

The Hindu  

India’s GDP grows 7.2% in FY23, 6.1% in March quarter India’s GDP growth accelerated to 6.1% in the January to March 2023 quarter, lifting the economy’s uptick in 2022-23 to 7.2% from 7% estimated earlier, as per the provisional national income data released by the National Statistical Office on May 31. Wrestlers’ protest | Naresh Tikait announces mahapanchayat in Muzaffarnagar …

Number Theory: State of the economy, in five charts
1 year, 11 months ago

Number Theory: State of the economy, in five charts

Hindustan Times  

The government will present the Economic Survey on the floor of Parliament on Tuesday. The World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects, for example, expects a 30 basis point – one basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point – reduction in real growth in 2023-24 to 6.6%. When read with the fact that Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing has …

Economic Survey 2019-20 highlights: Back to Adam Smith's Invisible Hand
4 years, 11 months ago

Economic Survey 2019-20 highlights: Back to Adam Smith's Invisible Hand

The Hindu  

India's Economic Survey 2019-20 was tabled in the Parliament on Friday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. While the 2018-19 survey started with Dr. Richard Thaler's famous 'nudge' principle to effectively implement policies that drive behavioural change, the 2019-20 survey has shifted focus to Adam Smith's 'invisible hand' for wealth creation. Here are the highlights of Economic Survey FY20: Economy Amidst …

Economic Survey 2019-20 highlights: GDP growth to rebound in FY21, share of formal employment rises; 2.62 cr new jobs created
4 years, 11 months ago

Economic Survey 2019-20 highlights: GDP growth to rebound in FY21, share of formal employment rises; 2.62 cr new jobs created

Firstpost  

India’s economic growth is expected to “strongly rebound” to 6-6.5 percent in 2020-21 from 5 percent estimated in the current fiscal, the Economic Survey said on Friday, adding that the government with a strong mandate has the capacity to expedite reforms India’s economic growth is expected to “strongly rebound” to 6-6.5 percent in 2020-21 from 5 percent estimated in the …

Budget 2020 LIVE Updates: Slowdown in Indian Economy Partly Due to Global Drag, Says CEA; Economic Survey Predicts Recovery in Growth at 6-6.5%
4 years, 11 months ago

Budget 2020 LIVE Updates: Slowdown in Indian Economy Partly Due to Global Drag, Says CEA; Economic Survey Predicts Recovery in Growth at 6-6.5%

News 18  

Budget 2020 LIVE Updates: The Economic Survey today projected India’s economic growth at 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent in the next financial year starting April 1, saying growth has bottomed out. Weak global growth impacting India as well as investment slowdown due to financial sector issues had led to growth dropping to a decade low in current fiscal, …

Daily Bulletin: NDA-II's first Economic Survey to be tabled in Parliament; Rahul Gandhi to appear in Mumbai court over RSS defamation case; day's top stories
5 years, 6 months ago

Daily Bulletin: NDA-II's first Economic Survey to be tabled in Parliament; Rahul Gandhi to appear in Mumbai court over RSS defamation case; day's top stories

Firstpost  

Chief Economic Advisor KV Subramanian to table the first Economic Survey, ahead of Union Budget; Rahul Gandhi to appear in Mumbai court in RSS defamation case concerning Gauri Lankesh’s murder; day’s top stories Chief Economic Advisor KV Subramanian to table the first Economic Survey, ahead of Union Budget Narendra Modi-led BJP government is set to present its first Economic Survey …

Budget 2019: Can Nirmala Sitharaman solve India's job crisis?
5 years, 6 months ago

Budget 2019: Can Nirmala Sitharaman solve India's job crisis?

India Today  

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman is all set to present her maiden budget on July 5 at a time when India's economic growth has slumped sharply and questions have been raised over a rise in unemployment. CURRENT JOB OUTLOOK India's unemployment rate stood at 8.1 per cent as of June 25, 2019, according to data released by Centre for Monitoring Indian …

India GDP growth: economy slumps again as Modi begins second term
5 years, 7 months ago

India GDP growth: economy slumps again as Modi begins second term

CNN  

New Delhi CNN Business — Narendra Modi just won a second term as prime minister of India. Modi, who first swept to power in 2014 on promises to revive India’s economy and boost growth, won re-election by an even bigger margin in the latest vote which concluded on May 23. Another set of figures released on Friday revealed that India’s …

How India’s stock markets are poised ahead of election results week
5 years, 7 months ago

How India’s stock markets are poised ahead of election results week

Live Mint  

Shimon Peres, the charismatic former foreign affairs minister of Israel had once said, “We should use our imagination more than our memory.” As India’s gargantuan national elections come to a conclusion, its financial markets are jittery, being held back by memories of surprises and shocks in the previous three general elections. “Valuations, flows and our investor discussions suggest markets are …

Modi’s mixed record on India’s economy
5 years, 9 months ago

Modi’s mixed record on India’s economy

CNN  

New Delhi CNN Business — Narendra Modi had lofty ambitions for India when he came to power in a landslide election win in 2014. As Modi seeks a second term, he’s setting the bar even higher — the election manifesto released by the BJP on Monday aspires to make India the world’s third largest economy by 2030. A massive overhaul …

India's GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% in December quarter, data to be out on Thursday
5 years, 10 months ago

India's GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% in December quarter, data to be out on Thursday

Firstpost  

India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in over a year in the October-December quarter as weaker rural incomes and softer urban demand weighed on consumption, a Reuters poll showed Bengaluru: India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in over a year in the October-December quarter as weaker rural incomes and softer urban demand weighed on consumption, a …

Paisa, Polls and Politics Part II: More The Money, Brighter The Chances of Winning an Election
5 years, 11 months ago

Paisa, Polls and Politics Part II: More The Money, Brighter The Chances of Winning an Election

News 18  

Winning an election in India requires some serious investment. The ratio of total crorepati candidates contesting candidates and those who eventually succeed shows that a crorepati candidate has a 20 per cent chance of winning an election. So, for instance, while a crorepati BJP MP has a 77 per cent chance of winning the election, the chances of a non-crorepati …

Opinion | Why you should not worry about elections
6 years ago

Opinion | Why you should not worry about elections

Live Mint  

I started 2018 with a certain portfolio size. This has become even more evident in the recent state elections when the National Democratic Alliance government lost in three major states and yet the Sensex soared by 700 points the same day. However, the highest nervousness is felt in the months and days leading up to the elections, where the uncertainty …

Indian economy a worry for Modi govt in election year
6 years ago

Indian economy a worry for Modi govt in election year

Live Mint  

New Delhi: India’s $2.7 trillion economy is headed for a slowdown ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections due by May, with a federal statistics body projecting an overall economic growth of 7.2% for the year ending 31 March. What could drag down growth in the second half is the government’s inability to boost growth as fiscal deficit in the first …

Harsh winds ahead for India’s political economy
6 years, 2 months ago

Harsh winds ahead for India’s political economy

Hindustan Times  

Harsh winds are gathering on the horizon; the forecast for India is grim for the next 12 months. In itself, the effect wouldn’t have been calamitous but coming as it does, along with other growing problems such as galloping crude prices, stubbornly low GST collections and the fear of fiscal overshoots, a sliding rupee, rural distress and rising interest rates, …

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