There is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade wars
5 years, 7 months ago

There is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade wars

Salon  

Monday’s 400-point Dow slide was far from the worst single day stock market performance under President Donald Trump. As Politico reported on Tuesday, economists at large institutions are increasingly worried that a recession will hit before the 2020 presidential election — and they put the blame squarely on Trump’s trade policies. Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 percent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance.” President Donald Trump has tried to pass the buck for economic instability onto the Federal Reserve, with which he has repeatedly fought over interest rate hikes. “We expect tariffs targeting the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China to go into effect and no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election.” The consequences of a recession at this juncture would be severe, as Trump and the previous Republican Congress have already stretched thin the conventional fiscal policy tools for stimulus with a massive tax cut for the rich, and the Fed has little room to cut interest rates with Trump already having leaned on them to keep rates low.

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History of this topic

Hiltzik: Are stocks predicting a recession?
1 week, 6 days ago

Hiltzik: Are stocks predicting a recession?

LA Times  

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange last week. That’s how you get a financial crisis.” Axios reported that with these remarks, Bessent, a veteran Wall Street executive, “broke with orthodoxy.” Actually, his view of corrections was entirely consistent with Wall Street orthodoxy. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warned of the stock market’s “irrational exuberance” in 1996, …

‘Worst recession of my lifetime’: Jim Rogers issues stark warning on US economy
1 week, 6 days ago

‘Worst recession of my lifetime’: Jim Rogers issues stark warning on US economy

Live Mint  

The recent stock market slump in the US has raised concerns about President Donald Trump's economic policies such as tariffs, immigration crackdowns and federal budget cuts. He also said he expects the US economy to soon be hit by the worst recession of his lifetime. He keeps saying he does not want a recession in the US economy and he …

"There are no guarantees": Trump acolytes run defense on potential recession
2 weeks, 1 day ago

"There are no guarantees": Trump acolytes run defense on potential recession

Salon  

While the economic chaos brought on by Donald Trump has untold amounts of support among the fringe online right, accelerationists who view burning everything down as the starting point for a supercharged libertarian technocracy, you'd expect the view to hold less sway in the halls of power built by the very stability that Trump undermines. During a visit to NBC's …

US has 40% chance of hitting a recession: JP Morgan chief economist
2 weeks, 4 days ago

US has 40% chance of hitting a recession: JP Morgan chief economist

Hindustan Times  

Bruce Kasman, the chief economist at JP Morgan & Chase, has projected a 40% chance of a recession hitting the US. Kasman's latest projections are a leg up from the projections he made at the start of the year, when he pegged the chances of a recession in the US at 30%. Kasman also said that Trump's approach to the …

Is Trump taking a ‘liquidationist’ approach to the economy?
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Is Trump taking a ‘liquidationist’ approach to the economy?

Live Mint  

During President Trump’s first term, stocks rode high on the belief that he would always pull back on policies that led to a selloff. Indeed, such views edge close to the “liquidationist" approach historically espoused by laissez-faire economists, and most infamously associated with former President Herbert Hoover’s Treasury secretary who advised him to let the economy fall. Trump and his …

It’ll be tough for Trump to dig his way out of this one
Trending News
2 weeks, 5 days ago

It’ll be tough for Trump to dig his way out of this one

CNN  

CNN — With his chaotic trade policy, President Donald Trump is digging himself into an economic and political hole so deep, it may prove impossible to climb out. Trump has been provided with multiple escape routes and off-ramps: His advisers and economic brain trust, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett …

It’ll be tough for Trump to dig his way out of this one
Trending News
2 weeks, 5 days ago

It’ll be tough for Trump to dig his way out of this one

CNN  

CNN — With his chaotic trade policy, President Donald Trump is digging himself into an economic and political hole so deep, it may prove impossible to climb out. Trump has been provided with multiple escape routes and off-ramps: His advisers and economic brain trust, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett …

Explainer: What's a recession and why is raising anxiety about it roiling markets?
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Explainer: What's a recession and why is raising anxiety about it roiling markets?

New Indian Express  

Still, fears of a downturn are rising as investors, economists, and business executives are realizing that Trump's import taxes are much more at the forefront of his economic policy this time than his last term in the White House. But one development that has sparked widespread fears is a real-time economy tracker maintained by the Federal Reserve's Atlanta branch. Last …

Explainer: What’s a recession and why is rising anxiety about it roiling markets?
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Explainer: What’s a recession and why is rising anxiety about it roiling markets?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Stock markets are plunging, consumers and businesses have started to sour on the economy, and economists are marking down their estimates for growth this year, with some even seeing rising odds of a recession. Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas, a financial services firm, doesn’t expect a recession, but says a “full-blown trade war” with all …

'Flashing signs': WSJ editorial board begs Trump to change course amid 'recession fears'
2 weeks, 6 days ago

'Flashing signs': WSJ editorial board begs Trump to change course amid 'recession fears'

Raw Story  

The Wall Street Journal's conservative editorial board once again sounded the alarm that economic warning signs are flashing — but President Donald Trump isn't listening. the board warned Monday evening that "recession fears are roiling markets," though acknowledging the precipitous drop in the stock market could be "merely a market correction." labor participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points and transportation …

Looming recession in the US bodes ill for India's growth story
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Looming recession in the US bodes ill for India's growth story

New Indian Express  

American voters love Donald Trump for his disruptive volatility. Trump believes this is transitory turbulence and, in the long run, the US stands to gain billions of dollars from tariffs and the revival of the ‘rust belt’ industries it lost to China, Mexico and other cheap-labour hubs. Other indicators such as credit card dues soaring to $1.21 trillion and late …

How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in only 20 days
Trending News
2 weeks, 6 days ago

How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in only 20 days

CNN  

New York CNN — Just 20 days ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs. On Monday, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN there’s a “real possibility” of a recession. ‘Deer in headlights’ moment for business Kelly said the economy and market are suffering from an “uncertainty tax” caused by questions about Trump’s tariffs, federal spending cuts …

Why Trump’s tariff chaos sparked stock market meltdown and recession fears
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Why Trump’s tariff chaos sparked stock market meltdown and recession fears

Al Jazeera  

Donald Trump has downplayed the stock market volatility which followed flip-flops over his trade policies. United States stock markets plummeted on Monday amid fears that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies might drive the world’s largest economy into recession. The market selloff comes as Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements have unnerved investors and stoked fears that the US economy could be headed …

Stocks plunge further amid Trump's downplay of 'period of transition' for economy
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Stocks plunge further amid Trump's downplay of 'period of transition' for economy

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump warned there would be a "period of transition" amid his trade war with Mexico, Canada and China. "The S&P 500 fell more than 3% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled nearly 5% as shares of big tech companies extended their selloff," the Wall Street Journal reported. "The risks of higher inflation as a result of a broader tariff …

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump
2 weeks, 6 days ago

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump

Firstpost  

The US economy is facing growing recession fears as key indicators signal trouble ahead. There’s going to be no recession in America.” Lutnick also defended Trump’s aggressive trade policies, arguing that they would ultimately benefit the US economy by “unleashing American wealth across the world.” What role do tariffs and spending cuts play? Goldman Sachs recently raised its recession probability …

Trump won’t rule out potential recession this year
3 weeks ago

Trump won’t rule out potential recession this year

Live Mint  

President Donald Trump said Americans should expect “a little disturbance" from his tariffs and trade policies and he wouldn’t rule out the potential for a recession this year. “I hate to predict things like that," Trump told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures. Lutnick said Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will ultimately drive down prices and lead to an economic boom for the …

'I Hate To Predict Things': Trump On Whether US Will Face Recession This Year
3 weeks ago

'I Hate To Predict Things': Trump On Whether US Will Face Recession This Year

ABP News  

US President Donald Trump declined to predict whether the country could face a recession this year amid stock market concerns about his recent tariff actions on Mexico, Canada and China. “April 2nd, it becomes all reciprocal,” Trump said, “What they charge us, we charge them.” AFP reported that when asked later on Sunday to clarify his remarks on whether there …

Is US heading to a recession? Trump avoids answering, says 'what we're doing is very big'
3 weeks ago

Is US heading to a recession? Trump avoids answering, says 'what we're doing is very big'

Firstpost  

The Trump trade policies have raised fears of trade wars that could slam economic growth and raise prices for Americans still smarting from years of high inflation U.S. President Donald Trump holds an executive order about tariffs increase, flanked by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. “There’s going to be …

US markets open lower day after Trump declines to rule out recession
3 weeks ago

US markets open lower day after Trump declines to rule out recession

India Today  

The US stock market’s sell-off is worsening Monday as Wall Street questions how much pain President Donald Trump is willing for the economy to endure in order to get what he wants. It takes a little time.” Trump says he wants to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, among other reasons he’s given for tariffs. He sees a …

Trump declines to rule out US recession as tariffs spook investors
3 weeks ago

Trump declines to rule out US recession as tariffs spook investors

Al Jazeera  

US president says economy is in a “period of transition” amid uncertainty over his trade policies. United States President Donald Trump has declined to rule out the possibility that the world’s largest economy is headed for a recession amid market concerns over his “America First” economic agenda. “It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for …

Trump declines to rule out 2025 US recession: Hate to predict things like that
3 weeks, 1 day ago

Trump declines to rule out 2025 US recession: Hate to predict things like that

India Today  

President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession in the United States this year during an interview aired on Sunday. "I hate to predict things like that," he told Fox News when asked about the likelihood of a recession in 2025. "Absolutely not," he told NBC’s "Meet the Press" when asked whether Americans should prepare for …

Growing Fear Of 'Trump Recession' Amid Tariff Whiplash And DOGE Chaos
3 weeks, 1 day ago

Growing Fear Of 'Trump Recession' Amid Tariff Whiplash And DOGE Chaos

Huff Post  

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Friday, March 7, 2025. via Associated Press WASHINGTON — With his flurry of tariffs, government layoffs and spending freezes, there are growing worries President Donald Trump may be doing more to harm the U.S. economy than to fix it. “Ongoing policy turbulence and a tariff …

US economic worries mount as Trump implements tariffs, cuts workforce and freezes spending
Trending News
3 weeks, 2 days ago

US economic worries mount as Trump implements tariffs, cuts workforce and freezes spending

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — With his flurry of tariffs, government layoffs and spending freezes, there are growing worries President Donald Trump may be doing more to harm the U.S. economy than to fix it. In an interview to air Sunday on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Trump was pressed to provide some clarity on his tariffs agenda that has caused uncertainty to …

US hurtling towards recession, warns financial analyst Jesse Colombo amid uncertainty over Trump tariffs
3 weeks, 4 days ago

US hurtling towards recession, warns financial analyst Jesse Colombo amid uncertainty over Trump tariffs

Firstpost  

With GDP estimates turning negative, consumer spending slowing, and market indicators pointing to a downturn, fears of a US recession in 2025 are intensifying A US-based analyst has predicted that US is heading towards a recession. Analyst Jesse Colombo, who previously predicted economic trouble in December, said the downturn was evident long before President Donald Trump’s election victory in November. …

'Recession is actually good': Trump critics predict how he'll spin falling economy
3 weeks, 5 days ago

'Recession is actually good': Trump critics predict how he'll spin falling economy

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump will deliver an address to Congress on Tuesday evening at the same time that economists are predicting his economic moves are making it more likely that the U.S. is headed toward a recession. Washington Post economics columnist Heather Long wrote on X, "Trump is steering the economy toward a recession with these massive tariffs and swift government …

Recession odds surge in online betting markets
3 weeks, 5 days ago

Recession odds surge in online betting markets

Raw Story  

The early optimism surrounding President Donald Trump's economic policies has faded and now odds are surging in online betting markets that there will be a recession this year. Bettors on online market Kalshi as of this writing are projecting a 42 percent chance of recession this year, which is a surge of 12 percentage points in just the last two …

'Recession is coming': Critics outraged as Trump vows steep tariffs imminent
3 weeks, 6 days ago

'Recession is coming': Critics outraged as Trump vows steep tariffs imminent

Raw Story  

President Donald Trump says he's done delaying the massive tariffs he planned to enact on America's neighbors, telling reporters Monday: "No room left for Mexico or for Canada. "You can watch the stock market tank in the bottom corner of Fox's broadcast as Trump talks about tariffs," wrote independent journalist Aaron Rupar. "Trump just made a new announcement about tariffs …

Experts fear Trump’s mass layoffs will trigger 'deep, deep recession' — and soon
1 month, 1 week ago

Experts fear Trump’s mass layoffs will trigger 'deep, deep recession' — and soon

Raw Story  

The total number of federal government workers who will lose their jobs because of mass layoffs being pushed by the second Trump Administration and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency remains to be seen. "A month into President Donald Trump's second term," Solovieva reports, "the Department of Government Efficiency — which is not a government agency, but an outside …

Experts fear Trump’s mass layoffs will trigger 'deep, deep recession' — and soon
1 month, 1 week ago

Experts fear Trump’s mass layoffs will trigger 'deep, deep recession' — and soon

Raw Story  

The total number of federal government workers who will lose their jobs because of mass layoffs being pushed by the second Trump Administration and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency remains to be seen. "A month into President Donald Trump's second term," Solovieva reports, "the Department of Government Efficiency — which is not a government agency, but an outside …

Imminent recession? DOGE’s mass layoffs spark fears of broader economic ripple effect
1 month, 1 week ago

Imminent recession? DOGE’s mass layoffs spark fears of broader economic ripple effect

Salon  

A month into President Donald Trump’s second term, the Department of Government Efficiency — which is not a government agency, but an outside advisory group — has been on a rampage in what is shaping up to be the biggest purge of the federal government in modern American history. “Just based on 200k+ federal firings and pullback of contracts, the …

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
7 months, 2 weeks ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

'Not in recession': Conservative economist debunks Trump campaign talking point
7 months, 3 weeks ago

'Not in recession': Conservative economist debunks Trump campaign talking point

Raw Story  

While former President Donald Trump earlier this week was hyping the prospect of a massive economic recession, economist Michael Strain doesn't believe the economic situation is anywhere close to that dire. Strain then explains that the major stock market drop earlier this week occurred primarily because of volatility in the Japanese stock market and not because investors feared America was …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year, 3 months ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year, 3 months ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year, 3 months ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 9 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
2 years, 1 month ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

No recession in US in 2023 or 2024: Joe Biden's expert-defying/ denying claim
2 years, 1 month ago

No recession in US in 2023 or 2024: Joe Biden's expert-defying/ denying claim

Hindustan Times  

US president Joe Biden said that he did not believe the US economy will fall into recession in 2023 or even next year in 2024. Earlier, Joe Biden had said that a recession was possible in the US although he said this week that the risk was very low. The economic data for the past few months has been in …

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy
2 years, 2 months ago

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — the United States, Europe and China — the World Bank warned on Tuesday. Though the United States might avoid a recession this year — the World Bank predicts the U.S. economy will eke out growth …

2023 to be tougher for global economy than 2022, IMF chief says
2 years, 2 months ago

2023 to be tougher for global economy than 2022, IMF chief says

Al Jazeera  

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says one-third of world’s economies expected to be in recession this year. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said 2023 will be a “tough year”, with one-third of the world’s economies expected to be in recession. Because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously,” Georgieva said during an appearance on the …

Biden sees economy avoiding recession, but risks remain
2 years, 3 months ago

Biden sees economy avoiding recession, but risks remain

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden assured Americans on Friday that the U.S. economy is chugging along in the holiday season, but the very strength of a new jobs report showed that high inflation remains a recession threat. “I’ve supported paid sick leave for a long time,” said the president, a staunch labor union supporter. “I’m going to continue that fight …

On election eve, the state of the US economy is a blurry one
2 years, 4 months ago

On election eve, the state of the US economy is a blurry one

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Help-wanted signs are everywhere. What’s more, the Federal Reserve’s drive to tame inflation through much higher interest rates is raising the risk of a recession by next year. The Fed’s policymakers have been aiming for a “soft landing’’ — raising rates enough to slow growth and bring inflation toward its 2% annual target without triggering a recession in …

US recession is now 100% CERTAIN within the next 12 months, according to new model from Bloomberg
2 years, 5 months ago

US recession is now 100% CERTAIN within the next 12 months, according to new model from Bloomberg

Daily Mail  

The economic downturn is likely to last for eight months The recession will lead to an average of 36,000 job cuts per month A few days earlier, the president conceded that a 'slight' recession may take place Over the weekend, President Joe Biden did his best to ease fears by declaring that the economy was 'strong as hell' On the …

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?
2 years, 5 months ago

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?

Al Jazeera  

The US is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve remains bullish in fighting high inflation. The United States is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, remains bullish in fighting high inflation and officials increasingly talk about the need to impose some economic pain to get price pressures under control, several economists told …

5 signs the world is headed for a recession
2 years, 5 months ago

5 signs the world is headed for a recession

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge. The dollar’s strength also creates destabilizing effects for Wall Street, as many of the S&P 500 companies do business around the world. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.” Welcome to bear territory …

If a Recession is Indeed Coming, Investing in These Stocks Could be a Safer Bet
2 years, 6 months ago

If a Recession is Indeed Coming, Investing in These Stocks Could be a Safer Bet

News 18  

The world economy has officially hit a recessionary phase. Even economist Nouriel Roubini, a noted economist who was at the forefront of accurately predicting the trajectory of the 2008 recession, foresees a lengthy and ugly recession that could last well until late next year. While India is not entirely immune to the globally looming recession, it might just stand out …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 8 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 8 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

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