Recession looming as jobs market weakens, says Bank rate-setter
1 year, 2 months ago

Recession looming as jobs market weakens, says Bank rate-setter

The Telegraph  

Ms Dhingra was speaking as economists said official data showing a slowdown in pay growth would fuel hopes the Bank of England has raised rates far enough to weaken the jobs market and ease a key driver behind inflation. Average weekly earnings in the three months to August were up 8.1pc compared with the same period last year, slowing from 8.5pc in the three months to July, the Office for National Statistics said. Tuesday’s figures from the Office for National Statistics also revealed that the number of job vacancies in the three months to September fell to its lowest level in more than two years. She said: “While the overall momentum of the economy is weak, the expected easing of inflation, coupled with earlier pay awards and the increase in the national living wage, should provide further improvements in consumers’ purchasing power and help alleviate the pressure on households.” Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “It’s good news that inflation is falling and real wages are growing, so people have more money in their pockets.

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History of this topic

What does rising inflation mean for you - and has it killed off a Bank of England interest rate cut?
6 days, 8 hours ago

What does rising inflation mean for you - and has it killed off a Bank of England interest rate cut?

Daily Mail  

Inflation in the UK climbed to 2.6 per cent in November, it was revealed today, as the rise in the cost of living accelerated again. James Smith, developed markets economist, UK, at ING, said: 'Our base case is for back-to-back to rate cuts from February onwards, with Bank Rate falling to 3.25 per cent later in the year. While services …

UK inflation increase solidifies expectations interest rates will be kept on hold
6 days, 9 hours ago

UK inflation increase solidifies expectations interest rates will be kept on hold

Associated Press  

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. rose to its highest level in eight months during November, official figures showed Wednesday, a development that has cemented market expectations that the Bank of England will opt against cutting borrowing costs this week. It said stubbornly high inflation in the crucial services sector, which accounts for around 80% of the U.K. economy, and …

Surge in wages means beleaguered borrowers must wait for interest rates cut
Trending News
1 week ago

Surge in wages means beleaguered borrowers must wait for interest rates cut

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The Bank of England is …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
1 week, 5 days ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

US job data: These are the top hiring sectors as employers add 227,000 jobs in November
2 weeks, 4 days ago

US job data: These are the top hiring sectors as employers add 227,000 jobs in November

Hindustan Times  

Amid fears of massive tariffs and inflation, November proved to be a strong month for job creation in the United States. Health Care, Hospitality, and Government: Top performing sectors The biggest job gains came from private education and health services, which added 79,000 positions. Government hiring contributed 33,000 positions, while other sectors also performed well, with manufacturing showing strong job …

UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after Budget – OECD
2 weeks, 6 days ago

UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after Budget – OECD

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy UK interest rates will fall …

Job openings rose while hiring dropped in October, labor report shows
3 weeks ago

Job openings rose while hiring dropped in October, labor report shows

Salon  

Job openings and resignations increased substantially in October while the number of hires and layoffs dropped, according to a Tuesday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that showed a mixed picture of the U.S. labor market. The increased number of job openings appeared mostly in professional and business services, as well as service and IT industries, jumping by 372,000 …

Economic advice for Donald Trump and Jerome Powell: First, do no harm
3 weeks, 6 days ago

Economic advice for Donald Trump and Jerome Powell: First, do no harm

Live Mint  

If US economic growth is so good, then why does the Fed need to cut interest rates? Underpinning the success is growth in labour productivity, which has averaged 2.3% in the past two years, about half a percentage point faster than in the four years before covid. By focusing on the issues facing small young businesses—as opposed to large well-established …

Unemployment in the UK rises to 4.3% and earnings fall to 4.8%
Trending News
1 month, 1 week ago

Unemployment in the UK rises to 4.3% and earnings fall to 4.8%

Daily Mail  

Wage growth has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years while Britain's jobless rate jumped by more than expected, according to official figures. The Office for National Statistics said average regular earnings growth eased back to 4.8 per cent in the three months to September, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous three months. Earnings growth …

Boost for Brits as Bank of England trims interest rates from 5% to 4.75%... but will hopes of 'aggressive' cuts be dashed by Labour's big-spending Budget?
Top News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Boost for Brits as Bank of England trims interest rates from 5% to 4.75%... but will hopes of 'aggressive' cuts be dashed by Labour's big-spending Budget?

Daily Mail  

The Bank of England cut interest rates today - amid fears the big-spending Budget will keep borrowing costs higher in future. Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: 'October data signalled another slowdown in output growth across the service sector as heightened business uncertainty and concerns about the general UK economic outlook had an adverse impact on …

Brits hope for mortgage relief with Bank of England poised to cut interest rates TODAY… but fears big-spending Budget could keep borrowing costs higher for years
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Brits hope for mortgage relief with Bank of England poised to cut interest rates TODAY… but fears big-spending Budget could keep borrowing costs higher for years

Daily Mail  

The Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates today - but could signal that the big-spending Budget will keep borrowing costs higher in future. Threadneedle Street's decision could be swayed by grim figures this week showing growth in the UK services sector slowing to its lowest rate in nearly a year. Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global …

Why is the drop in wage growth good news for borrowers?
2 months, 1 week ago

Why is the drop in wage growth good news for borrowers?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The Bank of England has been watching wage growth …

Rate cut hopes lift on slowdown in UK wage growth
2 months, 1 week ago

Rate cut hopes lift on slowdown in UK wage growth

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “A 25 basis point November Bank Rate cut is …

Hopes grow of double interest rate boost before Christmas as wage growth slows again - with crucial inflation numbers due tomorrow
2 months, 1 week ago

Hopes grow of double interest rate boost before Christmas as wage growth slows again - with crucial inflation numbers due tomorrow

Daily Mail  

Hopes of a double interest rate cut boost before Christmas rose today as wage growth slowed again. Regular pay went up by an annual rate of 4.9 per cent in the three months to July - from 5.1 per cent in the previous quarter. Bank governor Andrew Bailey suggested recently that rate reductions could be 'more aggressive' if the economic …

US economy exceeded expectations for job growth last month, data shows
2 months, 2 weeks ago

US economy exceeded expectations for job growth last month, data shows

Daily Mail  

The US economy far exceeded expectations for job growth last month, according to new data released Friday. The Fed's benchmark interest rate does not directly affect mortgage rates, but home loan costs tend to dip alongside rate cuts. 'Although mortgage rates have relented substantially, they bounced back somewhat this week as investors and the Fed disagree somewhat on the likely …

Bank of England could be ‘more aggressive’ with interest rate cuts, says governor
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Bank of England could be ‘more aggressive’ with interest rate cuts, says governor

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

Job growth blows away expectations, in boost for Harris
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Job growth blows away expectations, in boost for Harris

Politico  

The surprisingly solid jobs number puts Fed Chair Jerome Powell on course to cut interest rates by a modest quarter of a point when the central bank holds its next meeting on Nov. 6-7. Just 22 percent of Americans said the economy is in “excellent” or “good” shape in the latest Gallup poll, compared with 77 percent reporting it to …

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops
2 months, 2 weeks ago

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops

LA Times  

A hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Deerfield, Ill. “The report doesn’t single-handedly change the landscape for the economic outlook, but it does provide reassurance that there’s still plenty of life in the jobs market,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors, a major accounting firm based in the Detroit area. The strong …

Inflation steady – but chances of another rate cut are slim
3 months ago

Inflation steady – but chances of another rate cut are slim

The Independent  

Let’s start with the good news: August’s inflation number came in unchanged at 2.2 per cent. While that is higher than the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target, it is in line with City forecasts and beneath the 2.4 per cent the Bank itself had predicted at this stage. One thing to watch is the cost of services – …

US Hiring Rebounds Slightly And Unemployment Rate Dips In Sign Of Still-Slowing Job Market
3 months, 2 weeks ago

US Hiring Rebounds Slightly And Unemployment Rate Dips In Sign Of Still-Slowing Job Market

Huff Post  

A linesman works on power lines under the morning sun, July 12, 2024, in Phoenix. via Associated Press WASHINGTON — Hiring by America’s employers picked up a bit in August from July’s sluggish pace, and the unemployment rate dipped for the first time since March in a sign that the job market may be cooling but remains sturdy. In a …

Employment worries rise for Fed as inflation challenge is ‘becoming history’
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Employment worries rise for Fed as inflation challenge is ‘becoming history’

Politico  

Friday’s inflation data will solidify Powell’s resolve to lower borrowing costs next month, a move that’s poised to bring some relief to businesses and consumers just weeks ahead of the November elections. The Commerce Department said Friday that the annual personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, was just 2.5 percent in July — a sign that …

The job market might be more fragile than previously thought
4 months ago

The job market might be more fragile than previously thought

NPR  

The job market might be more fragile than previously thought NPR’s Ailsa Chang talks to senior economist at Wells Fargo, Sarah House, about the revision in jobs numbers that show the U.S. economy employed 818,000 fewer people that originally reported in March. HOUSE: Yeah, so it is pretty surprising to see that sort of downward revision when the economy is …

Slowdown in wage growth ‘clears the path for more interest rate cuts’ by BoE this year
4 months, 1 week ago

Slowdown in wage growth ‘clears the path for more interest rate cuts’ by BoE this year

The Independent  

Get the free Morning Headlines email for news from our reporters across the world Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “This lends some support to our forecast that the Bank …

Unemployment rises again in July, reviving worries of a recession
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Unemployment rises again in July, reviving worries of a recession

LA Times  

People visit the California Employment Development Department office in Sacramento. U.S. job growth slowed sharply last month and the unemployment rate rose to a nearly three-year high of 4.3%, the latest sign of a cooling labor market, the government reported Friday. Employers added 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists’ projections and down from an average monthly gain of 215,000 …

Economists warn unemployment rate could rise above 5 per cent, with hundreds of applications for individual jobs
5 months ago

Economists warn unemployment rate could rise above 5 per cent, with hundreds of applications for individual jobs

ABC  

While the jobless rate has been slowly creeping higher, alarm bells are ringing about the potential for a big surge in unemployment. Dr Chapman warned there was a risk Australia's unemployment rate could peak above 5 per cent, which is well above current forecasts, by the end of next year. Jobless rate acceleration a matter of time The obvious question …

Wages are rising 3.2% above inflation - the highest in nearly three years - as prices subside and jobs market holds steady... despite Rachel Reeves' grim claims that the economy is worse than she thou
5 months ago

Wages are rising 3.2% above inflation - the highest in nearly three years - as prices subside and jobs market holds steady... despite Rachel Reeves' grim claims that the economy is worse than she thou

Daily Mail  

Wages are rising 3.2 per cent above inflation with the jobs market holding steady, according to new figures today. Regular pay is increasing at the fastest pace in nearly three years relative to prices, after CPI inflation returned to the Bank of England's 2 per cent target. Wages are rising 3.2 per cent above inflation with the jobs market holding …

UK inflation stays at 2% target in June, leaving rate cut on a 'knife edge'
5 months, 1 week ago

UK inflation stays at 2% target in June, leaving rate cut on a 'knife edge'

Hindustan Times  

Inflation in the U.K. held steady at the Bank of England's target rate of 2% in the year to June, official figures showed Wednesday, in a development that could be enough for policymakers to cut borrowing costs next month. Grocery price inflation fell to its lowest level since September 2021 in a further sign of easing cost pressures, ahead of …

Powell stresses message that US job market is cooling, a possible signal of coming rate cut
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Powell stresses message that US job market is cooling, a possible signal of coming rate cut

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reinforced a message that the Fed is paying growing attention to a slowing job market and not only to taming inflation, a shift that signals it’s likely to begin cutting interest rates soon. “We also have an employment mandate.” On Tuesday, when Powell addressed the Senate Banking Committee, he suggested that …

US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates
5 months, 3 weeks ago

US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates

Hindustan Times  

U.S. job openings rose slightly to 8.1 million in May despite the impact of higher interest rates intended to cool the labor market. Vacancies rose from a revised 7.9 million in April, the first reading below 8 million since February 2021, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The U.S. economy and job market have been remarkably resilient in the face of …

U.S. job openings went up in May despite high interest rates
5 months, 3 weeks ago

U.S. job openings went up in May despite high interest rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — U.S. job openings rose slightly to 8.1 million in May despite the impact of higher interest rates intended to cool the labor market. AP AUDIO: US job openings rise to 8.1 million despite higher interest rates AP correspondent Rita Foley reports on job openings in May. The U.S. economy and job market have been remarkably resilient in the …

Inflation drops to Bank of England’s 2% target for first time in almost three years
6 months ago

Inflation drops to Bank of England’s 2% target for first time in almost three years

The Independent  

Get the free Morning Headlines email for news from our reporters across the world Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email Sign up to our free Morning Headlines email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Inflation has fallen back to the 2 per cent target …

With election looming, UK’s governing Conservatives seize on inflation fall to 2% target
6 months ago

With election looming, UK’s governing Conservatives seize on inflation fall to 2% target

Associated Press  

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. returned to the Bank of England’s target rate of 2% for the first time in nearly three years, official figures showed Wednesday, a development that was seized on by the governing Conservative Party as evidence that its economic plan is “working” ahead of the July 4 election. But Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hailed …

Australia's unemployment rate declines to 4 per cent in May, presenting a 'goldilocks' scenario for Reserve Bank
6 months, 1 week ago

Australia's unemployment rate declines to 4 per cent in May, presenting a 'goldilocks' scenario for Reserve Bank

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate was 4 per cent in May, down 0.1 percentage points from April. However, ABS data show the "trend" unemployment rate — which looks through the more volatile seasonally adjusted monthly figure — picked up slightly in May, from 3.9 per cent to 4 per cent. "At 4 per cent, the unemployment rate is spot on the …

Europe gambles on interest rate cut for growth as Britain languishes
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Europe gambles on interest rate cut for growth as Britain languishes

The Telegraph  

Core inflation, which strips out volatile movements in food and energy, is also predicted to remain higher for longer, while growth is forecast to pick up to 0.9pc this year, from a previous prediction of 0.6pc. Policymakers said high interest rates were still bearing down on growth as they vowed to keep them high “for as long as necessary to …

UK inflation - live: Tories call for Bank of England to cut interest rates despite market gloom over rising prices
7 months ago

UK inflation - live: Tories call for Bank of England to cut interest rates despite market gloom over rising prices

The Independent  

✕ Close Hunt attacks Labour and says he refutes 'myths' the economy is worse under Tories For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like …

Why Britain is leaving Europe behind on pay – and becoming more like the US
7 months, 1 week ago

Why Britain is leaving Europe behind on pay – and becoming more like the US

The Telegraph  

One reason is unemployment: it is significantly lower in the UK than that in the eurozone, pointing to a tight jobs market that keeps wages high. George Buckley, economist at Nomura, says: “It could be that those coming in from Europe were low-wage and they were acting to reduce pay pressures in parts of the economy, whereas these people could …

British economy rebounds strongly in first quarter of the year, ending ‘technical recession’
7 months, 2 weeks ago

British economy rebounds strongly in first quarter of the year, ending ‘technical recession’

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy bounced back strongly in the first three months of the year, bringing to an end to what economists termed a “technical recession”, official figures showed Friday. The Bank of England, like the U.S. Fed and other central banks around the world, raised interest rates aggressively in late 2021 from near zero to counter price rises …

Bank of England edges closer to rate cut, possibly in June, as it predicts below-target inflation
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Bank of England edges closer to rate cut, possibly in June, as it predicts below-target inflation

Associated Press  

LONDON — The Bank of England maintained its key U.K. interest rate at a 16-year high of 5.25% though it gave a broad hint that a reduction could be on the cards as soon as June as inflation is forecast to fall below target. I’m optimistic that things are moving in the right direction.” Bailey indicated that the financial markets …

US employers scaled back hiring in April. How that could let the Fed cut interest rates
7 months, 3 weeks ago

US employers scaled back hiring in April. How that could let the Fed cut interest rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s employers pulled back on their hiring in April but still added a decent 175,000 jobs in a sign that persistently high interest rates may be starting to slow the robust U.S. job market. Even with the April hiring slowdown, last month’s job growth amounted to a solid increase, though it was the lowest monthly gain since …

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment
8 months ago

Jobs market 'incredibly tight' despite rise in unemployment

ABC  

Australia's headline unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.8 per cent in March, after employment fell by 7,000 people and unemployment rose by 21,000 people. "Despite a small drop in employment, Australia's labour market remains incredibly tight," said Callam Pickering, APAC senior economist at global job site Indeed. "The easing in the labour market since late 2022 is most evident in …

UK unemployment soars to six-month high after economy cools
8 months, 1 week ago

UK unemployment soars to six-month high after economy cools

Live Mint  

Britain’s unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to the most in six months as the number of jobs in the economy shrank, an indication of cooling in the once red-hot labor market. “Easing pressure in the labor market keeps the Bank on track for a summer rate cut,” said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK. Nevertheless, Tuesday’s report showed a deterioration …

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens
8 months, 1 week ago

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens

Daily Mail  

Brits have been offered some much-needed relief as figures showed wages outstripping inflation by the biggest margin in two and a half years. Regular pay rose by 2.1 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the three months to February. The Office for National Statistics said the jobless rate jumped to 4.2 per cent in the three months to February …

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?
8 months, 2 weeks ago

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?

Al Jazeera  

US job growth has continued at a steady clip in the months since the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts are looking for warning signs. All eyes will be on Friday’s US unemployment numbers to see how many jobs were added in March and whether the unemployment rate continues to stay in its historically low range or if it is time for …

UK economy went into shallow recession in 2023: Official data
8 months, 3 weeks ago

UK economy went into shallow recession in 2023: Official data

Live Mint  

Britain's economy entered a shallow recession last year, official figures confirmed on Thursday, leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year. "The weak starting point for GDP this year means calendar-year growth in 2024 is likely to be limited to less than 1%," …

Inflation is falling fast – but will the Bank of England move to cut interest rates?
9 months ago

Inflation is falling fast – but will the Bank of England move to cut interest rates?

The Independent  

Some welcome news for consumers: inflation has once again fallen by more than expected. The headline number for February, per the Office for National Statistics, came in at 3.4 per cent – below both the consensus of the City and the Bank of England’s own forecast of 3.5. The CPI “all services” rate also declined to 6.1 per cent in …

Inflation drops to two-year low in boost for rate cut hopes
9 months ago

Inflation drops to two-year low in boost for rate cut hopes

The Telegraph  

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the fall in inflation signalled the Government’s plan for the economy was working and paved the way for future tax cuts. He rebuffed talk of a backbench plot to oust him that could derail his economic plans, telling the BBC: “What’s important is the future of our country, and people’s financial security and the peace of …

How the Bank of England’s rate rises lost their power
9 months, 1 week ago

How the Bank of England’s rate rises lost their power

The Telegraph  

Services costs are rising rapidly everywhere you look: care home fees are up by one-tenth. Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, notes that households had a big pile of savings built up during Covid that let them keep spending even as prices rose. Catherine Mann, an MPC member, told a recent Financial Times conference that “a lack of consumer discipline” …

Europe’s economy has stalled. But an interest rate cut will likely have to wait for summer
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Europe’s economy has stalled. But an interest rate cut will likely have to wait for summer

Associated Press  

FRANKFURT, Germany — Inflation in Europe is way down from its painful double-digit peak, and the economy has stalled. But the European Central Bank left its key interest rate at a record high Thursday, and its leader suggested a much-anticipated cut to borrowing costs would likely wait until June. The decision comes as central banks around the world, including the …

Job vacancies tumble as interest rates bite
9 months, 4 weeks ago

Job vacancies tumble as interest rates bite

The Telegraph  

Job vacancies have tumbled nearly 15pc as businesses struggle to hire in the face of high borrowing costs and while the UK battles a recession. Vacancies in January fell below 900,000 for the first time since April 2021, according to data from the jobs search engine Adzuna, a drop of 15pc from a year earlier. The downturn will fuel hopes …

UK recession ‘weak’ and rates may be cut before inflation hits 2% – Bailey
10 months ago

UK recession ‘weak’ and rates may be cut before inflation hits 2% – Bailey

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Bank of England Governor Andrew …

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