Union Budget 2021: After pandemic disruption, time to focus on demand side of economy
FirstpostWhichever way one may look at, the priority of FY 2022 Union Budget has to be and would be on getting the economy back on track. However, even at that time government finances were constrained and the government used the escape clause available under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act to let the fiscal deficit of FY 2020 slip by 50 bp to 3.8 percent of GDP and budgeted the fiscal deficit for FY 2021 at 3.5 percent of GDP. Given that the nominal GDP growth for FY 2020 had already fallen to 7.2 percent due to slowing consumer demand, achieving 10 percent nominal GDP growth and gross tax revenue buoyancy of 1.2x in FY 2021 was a stretch target. Against this backdrop, the fiscal arithmetic of Union Budget FY 2022 is expected to revolve around a nominal GDP growth of 14.0 percent and fiscal deficit of 6.2 percent of GDP with a focus on boosting aggregate demand, expenditure reprioritisation and mobilising higher non-tax revenue. Some of the specifics on which the government is expected to focus on the forthcoming budget are: Spending on infrastructure especially that are employment-intensive and have a shorter turnaround time and MGNREGS; creation of a new development financial institutions to bring inpatient capital, the continuation of relief/income support to the poor households, more support to real estate given its backwards-forward linkage in the economy, support to micro small and medium enterprises, reprioritisation of revenue/capital expenditure towards essentials coupled with rationalisation/discontinuation of schemes/sub-schemes that have meagre resource allocation and are non-impactful and mobilisation of higher non-tax revenue via disinvestment to fund expenditure.