Stagflation, explained: What to know about the latest economic forecast
6 days, 1 hour ago

Stagflation, explained: What to know about the latest economic forecast

CNN  

CNN — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday painted a picture of an economy reshaped dramatically by President Donald Trump and his economic policy. But many market observers felt Fed officials’ new economic forecasts nevertheless gave off whiffs of stagflation. According to officials’ latest median estimates, the US unemployment rate may hit 4.4% by year’s end. In a note to clients on Wednesday, JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli said the projections “were revised in a stagflationary direction.” If the Fed’s latest forecasts manifest, though, they’ll be a far cry from stagflation. What the economy is now experiencing, partially a result of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies dampening economic growth forecasts and renewing concerns about inflation, is unlikely to prompt Fed officials to so much as whisper stagflation to one another.

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History of this topic

‘Stagflation’ risk puts Federal Reserve in tricky spot as it meets this week
1 week, 1 day ago

‘Stagflation’ risk puts Federal Reserve in tricky spot as it meets this week

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — When Federal Reserve officials last met in late January, things looked pretty good: Hiring was solid. But even a mild version — with the unemployment rising from its current low level of 4.1%, while inflation stayed stuck above the Fed’s 2% target — would pose a challenge for the central bank. One development likely to unnerve Fed officials …

'Stagflation' fears grow as US Fed prepares key interest rate decision
1 week, 2 days ago

'Stagflation' fears grow as US Fed prepares key interest rate decision

India Today  

When Federal Reserve officials last met in late January, things looked pretty good: Hiring was solid. But even a mild version with unemployment rising from its current low level of 4.1%, while inflation stayed stuck above the Fed's 2% target would pose a challenge for the central bank. One development likely to unnerve Fed officials is the sharp jump in …

'Not good': Ex-Trump official sounds alarm on ominous economic signals
1 month ago

'Not good': Ex-Trump official sounds alarm on ominous economic signals

Raw Story  

Former Donald Trump administration adviser and Fox News economic commentator Larry Kudlow delivered some ominous words for the president in a segment Friday, warning that key economic indicators signal stagflation could be brewing. President Donald Trump inherited a strong, if still slightly overheated, economy from former President Joe Biden, with jobs numbers hovering around full employment and inflation significantly down …

US economy: Is stagflation making a comeback amid Trump turbulence?
1 month ago

US economy: Is stagflation making a comeback amid Trump turbulence?

Live Mint  

Might this be the year that stagflation returns to the US? It has been half a century: The last time the US economy had both excessively high inflation and unduly high unemployment was in the mid-1970s, with inflation rates reaching 12.2% in 1974 and unemployment at 8.5% in 1975. Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s economic advisors, has suggested that the …

Jerome Powell-led FOMC to meet today: US election results, inflation to GDP— 5 key indicators to watch
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Jerome Powell-led FOMC to meet today: US election results, inflation to GDP— 5 key indicators to watch

Live Mint  

The US Federal Reserve will begin its deliberations for the latest monetary policy decisions today, November 6, and will announce its new benchmark interest rate decision on Thursday, November 7. In September's policy meeting, US Fed policymakers said they see the interest rate falling by another 50 bps by the end of this year, another full percentage point in 2025, …

JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon warns US economy faces an outcome worse than a recession
6 months, 1 week ago

JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon warns US economy faces an outcome worse than a recession

Daily Mail  

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has said he would not rule out an outcome for the US economy which is widely considered to be worse than a recession. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has said he would not rule out an outcome for the US economy which is widely considered to be worse than a recession Since taking over in …

Economic recession fears grow after bleak jobs report and unemployment spike
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Economic recession fears grow after bleak jobs report and unemployment spike

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “With across-the-board cooling, we have lost most of …

Congressional Budget Office projects lower inflation and higher unemployment into 2025
1 year, 3 months ago

Congressional Budget Office projects lower inflation and higher unemployment into 2025

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Congressional Budget Office said Friday it expects inflation to nearly hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate in 2024, as overall growth is expected to slow and unemployment is expected to rise into 2025, according to updated economic projections for the next two years. The office’s Current View of the Economy from 2023 to 2025 report estimates …

U.S. employers add a solid 199,000 jobs and unemployment falls, signaling a still-sturdy labor market
1 year, 3 months ago

U.S. employers add a solid 199,000 jobs and unemployment falls, signaling a still-sturdy labor market

LA Times  

Mechanic David Stoliaruk works on the engine of a car at IC Auto in Philadelphia on May 2. The nation’s employers added a solid 199,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell, fresh signs that the economy could achieve an elusive “soft landing,” in which inflation would return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target without causing a steep recession. …

Nouriel Roubini warns of stagflation crisis as interest rate surge sinks economy, not inflation
2 years ago

Nouriel Roubini warns of stagflation crisis as interest rate surge sinks economy, not inflation

ABC  

The man dubbed "Dr Doom", US-based economist Nouriel Roubini, is warning that the world is facing a "perfect storm" of high inflation, rising interest rates and recession that will be "the worst of all worlds for workers". Key points: Economist Nouriel Roubini is tipping a "great stagflationary debt crisis" Dr Roubini warns the US Federal Reserve may be forced to …

Fed’s Powell: Strong hiring could force further rate hikes
2 years, 1 month ago

Fed’s Powell: Strong hiring could force further rate hikes

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that if the U.S. job market further strengthens in the coming months or inflation readings accelerate, the Fed might have to raise its benchmark interest rate higher than it now projects. Powell’s remarks followed the government’s blockbuster report last week that employers added 517,000 jobs in January, nearly double December’s gain. …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years, 3 months ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Fed voiced determination at last meeting to curb inflation
2 years, 5 months ago

Fed voiced determination at last meeting to curb inflation

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting stressed their commitment to taming “unacceptably high’’ inflation before announcing that they were raising their benchmark interest rate by a substantial three-quarters of a point for a third straight time and signaling more large rate hikes ahead. In minutes from their Sept. 20-21 meeting released Wednesday, the Fed policymakers judged that …

September 21, 2022: Fed raises interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point
2 years, 6 months ago

September 21, 2022: Fed raises interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point

CNN  

With the Fed’s latest rate hike, the “pain” that Chair Powell has been warning about will take many forms, including job losses, which the central bank chief euphemistically calls “softening in the labor market.” Critics such as Senator Elizabeth Warren have repeatedly called out the risk of raising unemployment, which is currently near historic lows at around 3.7%. “Chair Powell …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep U.S. recession
2 years, 6 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep U.S. recession

LA Times  

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell reiterated that the Fed is determined to lower inflation, now near a four-decade high of 8.5%, by raising its short-term rate, which is in a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring into play to get inflation …

Lower US job gain in August could aid Fed’s inflation fight
2 years, 6 months ago

Lower US job gain in August could aid Fed’s inflation fight

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — America’s employers added a healthy number of jobs last month, yet slowed their hiring enough to potentially help the Federal Reserve in its fight to reduce raging inflation. “It’s a very positive report and still holds open the possibility for a soft landing,” said Ellen Gaske, an economist at PGIM Fixed Income, referring to the Fed’s goal of …

Powell: Fed’s inflation fight could bring ‘pain,’ job losses
2 years, 6 months ago

Powell: Fed’s inflation fight could bring ‘pain,’ job losses

Associated Press  

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a stark warning Friday about the Fed’s determination to fight inflation with more sharp interest rate hikes: It will likely cause pain for Americans in the form of a weaker economy and job losses. “These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation,” Powell said in a high-profile speech at the …

US Fed Reserve raises interest rates by 75 bps to tame inflation; biggest hike since 1994
2 years, 9 months ago

US Fed Reserve raises interest rates by 75 bps to tame inflation; biggest hike since 1994

India TV News  

Highlights This is signalling more large rate increases to come that would raise the risk of another recession The central bank is trying to tighten credit and slow growth with inflation having reached 8.6% This move may affect many consumer and business loans to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% US Federal Reserve hikes interest rate: The Federal Reserve on …

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow
2 years, 9 months ago

Worry about stagflation, a flashback to ‘70s, begins to grow

Associated Press  

It was the dreaded “S word” of the 1970s. For Americans of a certain age, it conjures memories of painfully long lines at gas stations, shuttered factories and President Gerald Ford’s much-ridiculed “Whip Inflation Now” buttons. “This time, it is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time.. It’s a phenomenon — stagflation — that the world has …

Explained | How are fears of stagflation impacting markets?
2 years, 9 months ago

Explained | How are fears of stagflation impacting markets?

The Hindu  

The story so far: Authorities worldwide, particularly central bankers, are feverishly trying to formulate the appropriate set of policies to ensure that inflation, currently running at multi-decade highs in some advanced economies including the U.S., is cooled without triggering a recession. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told The New York Timeslast month that he foresaw a period in the …

What is Stagflation
2 years, 10 months ago

What is Stagflation

The Hindu  

Stagflation refers to an economic situation marked by stagnant economic output and high price inflation. The idea became popular during the 1970s when the U.S. economy witnessed high price inflation due to the oil shock as well as an economic recession marked by negative economic growth. Economists at the time could not explain the prevalence of high price inflation and …

What Might Happen Next With Inflation (It’s Not Pretty)
3 years, 1 month ago

What Might Happen Next With Inflation (It’s Not Pretty)

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON – Inflation has become a top political problem in Washington, damaging President Joe Biden’s standing with voters and grinding his domestic policy agenda to a halt. “It’s beyond time for the Federal Reserve to tackle this issue head on, and Congress and the administration must proceed with caution before adding more fuel to an economy already …

Hoping to beat back inflation, Fed prepares to raise interest rates in March
3 years, 2 months ago

Hoping to beat back inflation, Fed prepares to raise interest rates in March

LA Times  

After downplaying the threat of inflation through most of last year, the Federal Reserve struck a more hawkish tone Wednesday as it signaled readiness to raise interest rates in March and take other aggressive actions to combat high prices endangering the nation’s economic health. With decades-high inflation strapping workers and unsettling financial markets, Fed officials in recent days have been …

Fed’s Powell: High inflation poses a threat to job market
3 years, 2 months ago

Fed’s Powell: High inflation poses a threat to job market

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Warning that high inflation could make it harder to restore the job market to full health, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than it now plans if needed to stem surging prices. But Powell argued that rising inflation, if it persists, also poses a threat the Fed’s goal of …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
3 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Economists at Wells Fargo have joked grimly that the …

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease
3 years, 3 months ago

EXPLAINER: Why US inflation is so high, and when it may ease

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is starting to look like that unexpected — and unwanted — houseguest who just won’t leave. Economists at Wells Fargo have joked grimly that the Labor Department’s CPI — the Consumer Price Index — should stand for “Consumer Pain Index.’’ Unfortunately for consumers, especially lower-wage households, it’s all coinciding with their higher spending needs right before the …

Stocks week ahead: Stagflation rocked the economy before. Is it coming back?
3 years, 6 months ago

Stocks week ahead: Stagflation rocked the economy before. Is it coming back?

CNN  

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. “Although not our base case, stagflation has often been accompanied by oil shocks, and with crude prices recently jumping on supply chain disruptions, the risk of oil shocks has increased,” Kwon and Subramanian said. “Unlike the rest of our community, these people” — those on the …

Powell's high-stakes bet: More jobs but only mild inflation
3 years, 10 months ago

Powell's high-stakes bet: More jobs but only mild inflation

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Powell's bet is that the Fed can keep rates …

Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter
4 years, 6 months ago

Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter

NPR  

Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter Enlarge this image toggle caption Drew Angerer/Getty Images Drew Angerer/Getty Images The punch bowl can stay. For decades after the price hikes of the 1970s, the central bank was on high alert for inflation, raising interest rates whenever unemployment fell "too low," on the theory that would spark runaway prices. "We are certainly …

Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter
4 years, 6 months ago

Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter

NPR  

Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter Enlarge this image toggle caption Drew Angerer/Getty Images Drew Angerer/Getty Images The punch bowl can stay. For decades after the price hikes of the 1970s, the central bank was on high alert for inflation, raising interest rates whenever unemployment fell "too low," on the theory that would spark runaway prices. "We are certainly …

How a central banker’s low-rate shift showed the way for Fed
5 years, 3 months ago

How a central banker’s low-rate shift showed the way for Fed

Associated Press  

RICHMOND, Virginia — In mid-2016, even with unemployment falling and the economy growing modestly, James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, was concerned. It was based on a notion that Bullard was among the first Fed officials to fully recognize: That the U.S. economy was stuck in a rut, with low growth and low worker productivity, and …

Julian Knight: Stagflation is here, so how do you live with it?
14 years, 10 months ago

Julian Knight: Stagflation is here, so how do you live with it?

The Independent  

Sign up to our free money newsletter for investment analysis and expert advice to help you build wealth Sign up to our free money email for help building your wealth Sign up to our free money email for help building your wealth SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Now the …

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