Australia, NZ dlrs scale two-month highs, RBA hawkish on easing
1 month ago

Australia, NZ dlrs scale two-month highs, RBA hawkish on easing

Live Mint  

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Feb 21 - The Australian and New Zealand dollars hovered near two-month highs on Friday as worries about a global trade war abated a little, while Australia's central bank sounded a hawkish tone on future rate cuts. "Future rate cuts will likely be more a case of benign inflation readings allowing the RBA to remove the restrictive nature of policy settings, rather than macro weakness requiring easing," said Andrew Ticehurst, an economist at Nomura. The Antipodeans also got a lift on Thursday when U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China was "possible", but without offering any specifics. "Delay until Q2 of certainty surrounding Trump 2.0 tariff policies has allowed markets to shift their gaze elsewhere," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.

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History of this topic

Australia shares edge higher from seven-month lows as bargain hunters step in
1 week, 2 days ago

Australia shares edge higher from seven-month lows as bargain hunters step in

Live Mint  

March 13 - Australian shares eked out modest gains on Thursday, rebounding from a seven-month low, as investors took advantage of recent weakness to buy the dip after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff debacle sent markets substantially lower. However, markets continued to weigh the downside risks of an escalating global trade war, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff …

Australia, NZ dollars sink on soaring euro; steady vs dollar
1 week, 3 days ago

Australia, NZ dollars sink on soaring euro; steady vs dollar

Live Mint  

SINGAPORE, March 12 - The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit post-COVID lows against a surging euro, as Ukraine said it would agree to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire, a possible step toward peace. The euro had gained broadly after the U.S. said it would restore military aid and intelligence sharing to Kyiv, while Kyiv said it would accept …

Australia, New Zealand currencies edge higher as US economic fears drag dollar
1 week, 5 days ago

Australia, New Zealand currencies edge higher as US economic fears drag dollar

Live Mint  

* Aussie, Kiwi near five-year lows on euro * Wall Street futures sink, lower bond yields bring dollar lower * Little domestic data expected this week SYDNEY, March 10 - The Australian and New Zealand dollars eked out small gains on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump refused to rule out a recession from his trade policies, triggering a flight …

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning
1 week, 6 days ago

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning

ABC  

Economists say Australia has turned a corner. Last week, he said labour productivity was still "disastrous" in Australia and the purchasing power of our wages had deteriorated "disastrously" since Labor won the election in 2022. By the time the 2022 election was held, the "real" value of our wages had already deteriorated so much that our wages were buying less …

Australia, NZ dollars back off resistance, tariff risk looms
3 weeks, 4 days ago

Australia, NZ dollars back off resistance, tariff risk looms

Live Mint  

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Feb 25 - The Australian and New Zealand dollars were on the back foot on Tuesday after again failing to clear resistance, and markets were reminded the next round of U.S. tariff jeopardy was just days away. President Donald Trump on Monday indicated proposed levies on Mexico and Canada were still set to start next week, …

Yen gains; Aussie, kiwi steady before rate decisions
1 month ago

Yen gains; Aussie, kiwi steady before rate decisions

Live Mint  

By Rae Wee SINGAPORE - The yen rose on Monday in a boost from upbeat Japanese GDP data, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars held broadly steady ahead of policy decisions later in the week. The dollar was on the back foot as traders assessed recent weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data which have reignited bets for more Federal Reserve rate …

Big call on interest rates everyone with a mortgage needs to read as Donald Trump tariffs stir inflation fears
1 month, 1 week ago

Big call on interest rates everyone with a mortgage needs to read as Donald Trump tariffs stir inflation fears

Daily Mail  

Donald Trump's 25 per cent tariffs on Australian goods could end up delaying interest rate cuts here, experts fear. Donald Trump 's 45 per cent tariffs on Australian goods could end up delaying interest rate cuts, experts fear This would occur as weaker American demand for imports boosted the US dollar. Alarmingly, KPMG sees headline inflation climbing back to 3.3 …

Inflation has fallen in Australia and NZ, but which is faring better?
1 month, 1 week ago

Inflation has fallen in Australia and NZ, but which is faring better?

ABC  

New Zealand's economy is in recession. But inflation has fallen in both countries, and Australia's Reserve Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates soon. For example, New Zealand's labour force hasn't grown in the past 12 months, but you wouldn't know that by looking at its unemployment rate. Therefore, you could argue that New Zealand's unemployment rate is obscuring …

The fallout of Trump's tariffs hits financial markets as ASX dives. Here's what it means for Australia
1 month, 2 weeks ago

The fallout of Trump's tariffs hits financial markets as ASX dives. Here's what it means for Australia

ABC  

Tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump may not be a surprise, but they have certainly caused a shock on financial markets. "But central banks still cutting rates with the RBA joining in, prospects for stronger growth later in the year supporting profits, and Trump's policies ultimately supporting US shares, should still mean okay investment returns," Dr Oliver said. "The …

Live updates: ASX 200 hits all time high, NAB backs February rate cut, Wall Street down on Fed rate hold
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Live updates: ASX 200 hits all time high, NAB backs February rate cut, Wall Street down on Fed rate hold

ABC  

The Australian and New Zealand dollars found a sliver of support on Thursday after three straight sessions of losses, with risks still mounting to the downside as investors aggressively wager on near-term cuts to interest rates. Among the major Australian banks, NAB joined Westpac in shifting its call for the first cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia to February …

Aussie Dollar Traders Ramp Up Bearish Bets With 2022 Low in View
2 months, 1 week ago

Aussie Dollar Traders Ramp Up Bearish Bets With 2022 Low in View

Live Mint  

-- Traders are increasingly positioning for the Australian dollar to fall to levels last seen in 2020 as economic data weaken and increased US tariffs look more likely. Option trading volume on the Australian dollar versus the greenback on Wednesday surged to the highest in three weeks as the pair hovered not far above 0.6170, its 2022 low, according to …

Australia, NZ dlrs Struggle near two-year lows, data on help
2 months, 1 week ago

Australia, NZ dlrs Struggle near two-year lows, data on help

Live Mint  

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY, Jan 9 - The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollars wallowed near two-year lows on Thursday as their U.S. counterpart caught an updraught from lofty Treasury yields, while domestic data disappointed high expectations. Figures showed Australian retail sales rose a solid 0.8% in November as Black Friday discounting attracted frugal shoppers, but that missed market forecasts …

Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There's a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There's a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens

ABC  

Is the Reserve Bank close to stepping into the currency market to support the Australian dollar and, if so, what does this mean for millions of Australians? Reserve Bank can intervene to support the dollar The Reserve Bank last intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2007-08 during the global financial crisis, when it bought Australian dollars. "This was in …

Australian dollar now at risk of plummeting to pandemic-era lows, analysts say
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Australian dollar now at risk of plummeting to pandemic-era lows, analysts say

ABC  

The Australian dollar has fallen sharply, hitting a multi-year low of 61.88 US cents — a level not seen since October, 2022. "The problem with the Australian dollar appears to be that there was a real wobble in the Chinese currency into New Year's Eve," InTouch Capital Markets senior FX analyst Sean Callow said. The US dollar has performed strongly …

RBA chief's major hint that there could soon be some VERY good news ahead for home-owners
2 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA chief's major hint that there could soon be some VERY good news ahead for home-owners

Daily Mail  

The Reserve Bank has given a strong hint borrowers are getting some interest rate cuts in 2025 even though inflation is still too high. The Reserve Bank has given a strong hint interest rate cuts are coming even though inflation is still too high While headline inflation is at a three-year low of 2.8 per cent, the RBA regarded this …

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory
2 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward target but it’s still too soon to conclude the battle is won given a recent pick-up in consumption and a still-tight labor market, minutes of the December meeting showed. The Reserve Bank’s board discussed scenarios in which future policy would be eased to boost economic growth or …

Dollar firms as US rates outlook dominates
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Dollar firms as US rates outlook dominates

Live Mint  

By Rae Wee SINGORE, - The dollar was on the front foot on Tuesday as the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates remained top of investors' minds, leaving other currencies struggling near milestone lows. The Bank of Japan last week kept rates on hold and stayed vague on when it could next raise rates, an outcome which was in stark …

The Australian dollar could be heading to a 20-year low, on risks of China, Trump and slow growth
2 months, 3 weeks ago

The Australian dollar could be heading to a 20-year low, on risks of China, Trump and slow growth

ABC  

You wouldn't be an economics forecaster for quids. A weak Chinese economy, American threats to impose punishing trade tariffs, a poor medium-to-longer-term outlook for our key exports and a sluggish economy are likely to keep the Australian dollar under pressure through 2025, threatening to send it into the 50 US cents. The upside of heading down The Australian dollar is …

Share market rises after a rally on Wall Street, Australian dollar remains at two-year low — as it happened
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Share market rises after a rally on Wall Street, Australian dollar remains at two-year low — as it happened

ABC  

OK, so a lot of this discussion is couched in coded messages. They noted that the data received since the previous meeting had not been sufficient to shift the central forecast for inflation or the labour market materially at this stage." "Relative to this central path, members judged that the risk that inflation returns to target more slowly than forecast …

New Zealand sinks into recession, 5 things to know about its economic decline
3 months ago

New Zealand sinks into recession, 5 things to know about its economic decline

Firstpost  

Widespread weakness across sectors, declining household and government spending, and a shrinking GDP per capita have created difficulties for New Zealand. The downturn pressures policymakers to cut rates further amid hopes of a gradual recovery New Zealand has officially entered a recession as the economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter, marking its steepest contraction in over three decades, excluding …

NZ recession and Federal Reserve rate cut sink Aussie dollar but show the RBA dodged a bullet
3 months ago

NZ recession and Federal Reserve rate cut sink Aussie dollar but show the RBA dodged a bullet

ABC  

If you're looking for a last-minute overseas summer getaway, New Zealand is looking increasingly attractive. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started lifting its cash rate from COVID-19 lows of 0.25 per cent in October 2021 — a full seven months before Australia's Reserve Bank. Why a Fed rate cut sent the US dollar soaring …

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike
3 months, 1 week ago

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike

ABC  

The Reserve Bank may have dropped the phrase "not ruling anything in or out" in its interest rates commentary, but that does not mean an interest rate hike is completely out of the question. That is because, as Dr Hunter explained, it would mean the RBA's key policy goal of achieving its mid-point annual inflation target of 2.5 per cent …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
3 months, 1 week ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

RBA will monitor Donald Trump's trade tariffs for inflation risk, says deputy governor
3 months, 1 week ago

RBA will monitor Donald Trump's trade tariffs for inflation risk, says deputy governor

ABC  

The Reserve Bank's deputy governor has encouraged Australians not to stress too much about the likely impact on Australia's economy of a tit-for-tat trade war sparked by Donald Trump's presidency, and the problems it may cause for inflation next year. Andrew Hauser says if US president-elect Trump introduces wide-ranging trade tariffs next year, the direct impacts on Australia would probably …

Major blow for Aussies just before Christmas as Reserve Bank makes interest rate decision
3 months, 1 week ago

Major blow for Aussies just before Christmas as Reserve Bank makes interest rate decision

Daily Mail  

Australian home borrowers have been dealt a severe blow just before Christmas with the Reserve Bank denying them a rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock gave a strong hint rate cuts could be months away with inflation still too high, ahead of an election next year. Australian home borrowers have been dealt a severe blow just before Christmas with the Reserve …

Why Australia is lagging the pack on rate cuts
4 months ago

Why Australia is lagging the pack on rate cuts

ABC  

At last, some good news. Despite core inflation still sitting well above target, there's a better than even chance the official cash rate will be cut within weeks. But when it came to the all-important core inflation measure, America's came in at 3.3 per cent, again just a couple of points below us at 3.5 per cent. Immediately after the …

Big hint Anthony Albanese is responsible for you missing out on a rate cut - with Australia's most powerful banker blaming government spending for inflation
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Big hint Anthony Albanese is responsible for you missing out on a rate cut - with Australia's most powerful banker blaming government spending for inflation

Daily Mail  

Australia's most powerful banker has given a strong hint that excessive government spending is to blame for high inflation, ruling out rate cuts until 2025. Australia's most powerful banker has given a strong hint excessive government spending is to blame for high inflation - and therefore no rate cuts While headline inflation has fallen to a three-and-a-half year low of …

Why Aussies with a mortgage could be in for more pain after Donald Trump's election victory
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Why Aussies with a mortgage could be in for more pain after Donald Trump's election victory

Daily Mail  

Donald Trump's election victory could deprive Australian home borrowers of rate cuts, a former Reserve Bank board member fears. Donald Trump 's election victory could deprive Australian home borrowers of rate cuts, a former Reserve Bank board member fears Australia is already struggling with high services inflation but a new wave of American-led protectionism could also lead to higher goods …

Dollar stable, yen wobbles ahead of US inflation data
6 months, 1 week ago

Dollar stable, yen wobbles ahead of US inflation data

Hindustan Times  

By Ankur Banerjee Dollar stable, yen wobbles ahead of US inflation data SINGORE -The dollar was steady on Tuesday and the yen inched away from one-month highs in cautious trading as investors braced for U.S. inflation data and reassess expectations of a large interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. A mixed labour report on Friday failed to …

RBA Governor delivers another blow to Aussies with a mortgage - and why you shouldn't expect rate cuts anytime soon
7 months, 2 weeks ago

RBA Governor delivers another blow to Aussies with a mortgage - and why you shouldn't expect rate cuts anytime soon

Daily Mail  

Australia's most powerful banker has aggressively scotched expectations of rate cuts by Christmas - despite global concerns about an American recession and weak local economic activity. In the media conference afterwards, Governor Michele Bullock stressed a rate cut wasn't happening soon - despite the Reserve Bank statement emphasing the risk of an economic slowdown and weaker gross domestic product 'Given …

Why the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold off on interest rate hikes in August
7 months, 3 weeks ago

Why the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold off on interest rate hikes in August

ABC  

There's a curious thing about openness, communication and transparency. Because, despite recently showing a real reluctance to want to push interest rates even higher, she and her Reserve Bank of Australia colleagues have for the past two years made it abundantly clear that they were committed to hammering inflation into submission. Money markets right now have just a one-in-five chance …

RBA Sees Some Households Struggling, Suggesting Rate-Hike Limits
9 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA Sees Some Households Struggling, Suggesting Rate-Hike Limits

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s inflation is showing persistent strength and weighing heavily on the finances of some households, a senior Reserve Bank official said, highlighting the limits to further interest-rate increases. “The board are absolutely focused on the fact that inflation is clearly still above the target band,” RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said at a conference in Sydney on Thursday, referring …

Australia should adhere to independent China policy to bolster trade
1 year ago

Australia should adhere to independent China policy to bolster trade

China Daily  

SHI YU/CHINA DAILY Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to New Zealand and Australia from Sunday to Thursday indicates an improvement in political mutual trust between China and the two countries, especially between China and Australia. Second, Australia needs to base its China policy on its own national interests, without allowing the US to hold Sino-Australian trade relations hostage, in order …

Australia should adhere to independent China policy to bolster trade
1 year ago

Australia should adhere to independent China policy to bolster trade

China Daily  

SHI YU/CHINA DAILY Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to New Zealand and Australia from Sunday to Thursday indicates an improvement in political mutual trust between China and the two countries, especially between China and Australia. Second, Australia needs to base its China policy on its own national interests, without allowing the US to hold Sino-Australian trade relations hostage, in order …

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse
1 year ago

Did the Reserve Bank hit the brakes too hard? Why Australia's economy is heading into reverse

ABC  

The softening-up process is already underway. There's now every possibility the GDP numbers could tip negative, giving the first real indication that Australia's economy is shrinking under the weight of 13 interest rate hikes in quick succession. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.35 per cent last November, but it hasn't fully flowed through to the whole economy. Prepare …

Inflation further cools in Australia as confidence of ‘soft landing’ grows
1 year, 1 month ago

Inflation further cools in Australia as confidence of ‘soft landing’ grows

Associated Press  

SYDNEY — Inflation in Australia has slowed to its lowest rate in three years, the country’s official statistics agency said Wednesday, raising hopes of a “soft landing” for the nation’s economy. While the CPI is still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2-3%, the bigger than expected slowdown will raise mortgage holders’ hopes that relief on interest …

Inflation figures Australia: Major development in country's cost of living battle
1 year, 1 month ago

Inflation figures Australia: Major development in country's cost of living battle

Daily Mail  

Inflation has fallen significantly to a two-year low just months before lower and middle-income Australians are due to receive bigger tax cuts. This was the lowest headline inflation rate since December 2021, when it was at 3.5 per cent following the lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne but before Russia's Ukraine invasion pushed petrol prices above $2 a litre. Inflation has …

How will the ASX, Wall Street, other share markets and the Australian dollar perform in 2024?
1 year, 2 months ago

How will the ASX, Wall Street, other share markets and the Australian dollar perform in 2024?

ABC  

Key market and currency watchers say the Australian share market is likely to outperform other major financial markets in 2024 and the Australian dollar will trade higher against the greenback with or without interest rate cuts. Key points: The ASX 200 could reach a record high in 2024 The Australian dollar is likely to continue to rise But a recession …

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024
1 year, 2 months ago

Australia narrowly avoided recession this year — what these experts think will happen in 2024

ABC  

Fears that Australia would enter a technical recession during 2023 didn't eventuate. "I think the last interest rate hike in November has led to a bit of a perhaps change in expectation that maybe we haven't seen the peak in interest rates in Australia," AMP's deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said. "I'll be the first to say that we were …

Commonwealth Bank forecasts massive interest rate cuts for Australians: Here's when the country's biggest bank predicts they will begin
1 year, 3 months ago

Commonwealth Bank forecasts massive interest rate cuts for Australians: Here's when the country's biggest bank predicts they will begin

Daily Mail  

The Commonwealth Bank is now forecasting six interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 - starting in September next year as Australian inflation moderates faster than predicted. Mr Halmarick is basing his prediction of 150 basis points of rate cuts, in 2024 and 2025, on inflation falling back to the top of the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent …

Why further RBA interest rate hikes are less likely now than even one week ago
1 year, 4 months ago

Why further RBA interest rate hikes are less likely now than even one week ago

ABC  

Since Australia's Reserve Bank hiked interest rates two weeks ago, there have been two important developments — one in the United States and the other in the United Kingdom. In this way, decisions made in the US not to increase interest rates or even to cut them make it easier for Australia's Reserve Bank not to increase rates — or …

The health of China's economy could determine whether a recession is on the cards in Australia
1 year, 7 months ago

The health of China's economy could determine whether a recession is on the cards in Australia

ABC  

The Australian dollar has fallen from 68.8 US cents on June 15 to 64 US cents this week. "China's central bank allows the yuan to trade +/-2 per cent each day either side of its fixing rate," Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow told The Drum. Why a fall in the Australian dollar may signal good news for mortgage-holders Photo …

Australian dollar ‘at risk of a slide’ as China’s economic troubles deepen
1 year, 7 months ago

Australian dollar ‘at risk of a slide’ as China’s economic troubles deepen

ABC  

The Australian dollar hit a nine-month low against the US dollar Monday. Key points: The Australian dollar has hit a nine-month low There are growing concerns about the health of China's economy Global investors are on edge as another major Chinese investment firm shows signs of stress It fell to 64.59 US cents before recovering in afternoon trade to 64.8 …

The Australian dollar is going into hibernation, and it's because of interest rates and commodity prices
1 year, 7 months ago

The Australian dollar is going into hibernation, and it's because of interest rates and commodity prices

ABC  

Fashion is a fleeting phenomenon. And our interest rates remained much higher than the rest of the developed world, which also attracted vast amounts of global capital seeking out a decent return. Our relatively lower interest rates will weigh on the Australian dollar as speculative money looks to the US and Europe for better returns. Why a fall in the …

What the fall in the Australian dollar tells us about the future of interest rate rises
1 year, 7 months ago

What the fall in the Australian dollar tells us about the future of interest rate rises

ABC  

There's growing evidence the economy is under stress. It's consistent with what soon-to-be RBA governor Michele Bullock said a few weeks back — that unemployment would "have to" rise for inflation to come down to the RBA's target band. "The fall reflects a combination of market expectations that the RBA may have finished hiking and uncertainty following the Fitch downgrade …

Inflation is falling in Australia and New Zealand — but how do we stack up against the rest of the world?
1 year, 8 months ago

Inflation is falling in Australia and New Zealand — but how do we stack up against the rest of the world?

ABC  

For more than 12 months, Australians have been hit with interest rate rise after interest rate rise in pursuit of a golden ideal — bringing inflation down. United States of America Current inflation rate: 3 per cent Inflation rate July 2022: 8.5 per cent Despite overall CPI falling, the price of groceries in the US remains high. United Kingdom Current …

New Zealand is officially in a recession. These charts show how Australia compares
1 year, 9 months ago

New Zealand is officially in a recession. These charts show how Australia compares

ABC  

New Zealand is now in a recession as official data shows the economy has contracted over two consecutive quarters. "New Zealand’s economy is in the midst of a necessary, policy-induced slowdown following the strong post-pandemic recovery," the International Monetary Fund said in a statement this week. Gareth Kiernan from economic research group Infometrics wrote that he expected New Zealand's GDP …

Australia’s exports to China hit record highs as barriers ease
1 year, 10 months ago

Australia’s exports to China hit record highs as barriers ease

Al Jazeera  

Exports of Australian goods to China hit $12.71bn in March, up nearly one-third from year earlier. Australia’s exports to China surged to record highs in March as the Asian giant sucked in more iron for its steel industry and lowered barriers to thermal coal shipments amid thawing diplomatic relations. Data released on Thursday showed exports of Australian goods to China …

Reserve Bank hikes cash rate to 3.85 per cent, ASX hits three-week low, Qantas appoints new CEO to replace Alan Joyce
1 year, 10 months ago

Reserve Bank hikes cash rate to 3.85 per cent, ASX hits three-week low, Qantas appoints new CEO to replace Alan Joyce

ABC  

Here are some comments from Callam Pickering, an economist at global job site Indeed. He's just put out this note on the rate decision, which I think is worth quoting in full: "The flow of recent economic data provides a compelling case for further rate hikes,” he said. "The RBA anticipates that further rate hikes may well be needed to …

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