Illusory blip: On inflation
The HinduIndia’s retail prices rose 3.54% in July, the slowest pace in almost five years, easing sharply from 5.1% in June. This is also the first time since August 2019 that inflation as per the Consumer Price Index has aligned with the Reserve Bank of India’s median inflation target of 4%. There is good reason to see through July’s print as a purely statistical outcome of base effects from last July — when the CPI was up 7.4% and food was 11.5% dearer — rather than a tangible softening of persistent price pressures for households. But this was on top a whopping 37.3% rise last July, when prices of tomato, which played a key role in last month’s vegetable price trend, had hit around ₹110 per kilo. On the other hand, core inflation rose for the first time since January 2023, primarily led by pricier services, including transport and communication that sped thanks to telecom tariff hikes.