World economy edges closer to recession as trade woes spread
5 years, 5 months ago

World economy edges closer to recession as trade woes spread

Live Mint  

Hong Kong/Washington: The escalating trade war between the US and China is nudging the world economy toward its first recession in a decade with investors demanding politicians and central bankers act fast to change course. “If the trade war escalates — this could include a more explicit currency war — uncertainty would be considerably higher and financial conditions much tighter.” “Asset purchases — if the ECB and others take that path — will be less effective this time than they were in the past. “Incompetence is a terrible thing to watch, especially when things could be taken care of sooo easily.” But this time around central bankers may not be powerful enough given rates are already low and further action may not offset the fallout from the trade troubles. An added complication is the US Treasury’s decision this week to label China a currency manipulator after China allowed the yuan to weaken past 7 against the dollar for the first time since 2008.

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History of this topic

US Fed cuts key interest rates by 0.25%: 3 key takeaways for stock markets
Top News
3 weeks, 1 day ago

US Fed cuts key interest rates by 0.25%: 3 key takeaways for stock markets

India Today  

Stock markets are expected to open lower on Thursday, following a global market slump after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. GLOBAL MARKET REACTIONS Wall Street reacted negatively to the Fed’s announcement, with all three major US indices—Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq—posting their biggest single-day losses in months. Gift Nifty, an indicator for the …

Keep eye on global interest rate cuts for market moves
3 months, 4 weeks ago

Keep eye on global interest rate cuts for market moves

New Indian Express  

Indian markets are hitting new highs and defying the ‘September effect’, considered the worst month for global stock markets. The sharp rally driven by banking, IT and auto stocks gained strength from a host of factors including interest rate cuts in the US, China and Europe. A bigger cut would confirm the worst fears of a hard landing for the …

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets
5 months ago

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets

ABC  

There are genuine concerns the world's largest economy is heading toward a recession, and the fear is gripping global financial markets. "Shares went sky high into July on the back of better news on inflation, increasing optimism about lower interest rates ahead and optimism about IT and AI-related earnings," Mr Oliver, who manages $3 billion in investments, said. The US …

Stock Market Today: Markets decline in early trade after record-breaking rally
8 months, 4 weeks ago

Stock Market Today: Markets decline in early trade after record-breaking rally

The Hindu  

Equity benchmark indices declined in early trade on April 12 after a record-breaking rally in the previous trade as investors went in for profit-taking amid weak trends from Asian markets. The hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data also hit investors' sentiment as it reduced hopes of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. From the global equity market perspective, sticky U.S. inflation is …

Recession has struck some of world’s top economies; US keeps defying expectations
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Recession has struck some of world’s top economies; US keeps defying expectations

New Indian Express  

Several unique characteristics of the US economy have sheltered it from recessionary storms, analysts say. The US government provided about $5 trillion in pandemic aid in 2020-2021, far more than overseas counterparts, which left most households in much better financial shape and supported consumer spending well into 2023. “But also the structure of our economy is so much different.” Americans …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year, 1 month ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

A Soft Landing in the U.S. Could Be Hard for Everyone Else
1 year, 2 months ago

A Soft Landing in the U.S. Could Be Hard for Everyone Else

Live Mint  

The U.S. economy might be heading for a soft landing. Surprising strength in the U.S. economy poses a threat to the rest of the world, portending higher interest rates for longer and a stronger dollar that will weigh on other countries’ growth. Fragmentation Strong U.S. economic data, including September’s blockbuster hiring report, helped send Treasury yields to 16-year highs as …

IMF chief says the global economy has shown resilience in the face of COVID, war and high rates
1 year, 3 months ago

IMF chief says the global economy has shown resilience in the face of COVID, war and high rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy has shown “remarkable resilience’’ but still bears deep scars from the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. “While the recovery from the shocks of the past few years continues, it is slow and it is uneven,’’ IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said …

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'
1 year, 3 months ago

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'

Daily Mail  

The boss of JPMorgan has warned that the worst of the interest rate pain may still be ahead for businesses and families already scarred by an historic round of hikes. JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon said that the Fed was forced to hold on another hike at its latest meeting because the effect of a jump to 5 to 7 percent …

Markets trade lower on weak global trends
1 year, 4 months ago

Markets trade lower on weak global trends

The Hindu  

Benchmark equity indices began the trade on a muted note on August 17 and fell further in line with weak trend in global markets. There are two negatives weighing on global stock markets now: One, the U.S. Fed minutes indicate that one more rate hike may be needed in this rate-hiking cycle to tame inflation. "Two, Chinese macro data indicate …

The world economy is still in danger
1 year, 5 months ago

The world economy is still in danger

Hindustan Times  

Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Other central banks were following suit, their inflation problems made worse by a surging dollar —a particular problem for the emerging markets that borrow and trade using America’s currency. Yet news that America’s headline rate of annual inflation fell to 3% in June has fed hopes …

How to explain the puzzle of the world economy
1 year, 5 months ago

How to explain the puzzle of the world economy

Hindustan Times  

What is mona lisa doing? Few seem to expect a “no-landing” scenario, in which the economy remains untroubled by rising interest rates—a fashionable opinion just weeks ago, and one which itself supplanted a common view late last year that a mild recession was certain. The word “uncertainty” appears more than 60 times in the imf’s latest global economic outlook, about …

Mint Explainer: After covid, the unfolding of an unfair world
1 year, 11 months ago

Mint Explainer: After covid, the unfolding of an unfair world

Live Mint  

The post-pandemic world is not only poorer, but also becoming more unequal and unfair. Severe lockdowns in pursuit of "zero covid" appears to have slowed the Chinese economy for now, but the developing world -- with the possible exception of India -- has taken a bigger hit. The World Bank also points out that "the large fiscal demand on global …

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy
1 year, 11 months ago

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — the United States, Europe and China — the World Bank warned on Tuesday. Though the United States might avoid a recession this year — the World Bank predicts the U.S. economy will eke out growth …

World economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 5.9% : OECD
2 years, 1 month ago

World economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 5.9% : OECD

Al Jazeera  

While not predicting a global recession, the OECD said it was ‘a very, very challenging outlook’ for this year and next. Hobbled by high interest rates, punishing inflation and Russia’s war against Ukraine, the world economy is expected to eke out only modest growth this year and to expand even more tepidly in 2023. In the OECD’s estimation, the world …

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?
2 years, 3 months ago

Is the US economy in a recession and taking the world with it?

Al Jazeera  

The US is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve remains bullish in fighting high inflation. The United States is facing rising recession fears as the Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, remains bullish in fighting high inflation and officials increasingly talk about the need to impose some economic pain to get price pressures under control, several economists told …

World could face recession next year: World Bank report
2 years, 3 months ago

World could face recession next year: World Bank report

Hindustan Times  

The world could face a recession next year amid simultaneous tightening of monetary policy by central banks around the world, the World Bank has said in a new report that called for boosting production and removing supply bottlenecks to ease inflation. World Bank president David Malpass said global growth is slowing sharply. READ | World Bank warns of global recession, …

World Bank projects global economy to shrink by 5.2% in 2020
4 years, 7 months ago

World Bank projects global economy to shrink by 5.2% in 2020

China Daily  

Aerial photo taken on Sept 6, 2019 shows a cargo ship of COSCO SHIPPING Lines transporting Italian products to participate in the 2019 China International Import Expo berths at the Port of Piraeus in Greece. WASHINGTON - The global economy is on track to shrink by 5.2 percent this year amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the deepest recession since the Second …

World stock markets slide after virus-driven plunge in US retail sales, factory output; dire economic outlook weighs on Asia
4 years, 8 months ago

World stock markets slide after virus-driven plunge in US retail sales, factory output; dire economic outlook weighs on Asia

Firstpost  

World stock markets fell on Thursday, while bonds and the dollar held on to hefty gains Singapore/New York: World stock markets fell on Thursday, while bonds and the dollar held on to hefty gains, after a coronavirus-driven plunge in US retail sales and factory production and increasing gloomy economic outlooks for Asia. US retail sales fell the most on record …

World stocks mixed after Wall Street sinks despite rate cut
4 years, 10 months ago

World stocks mixed after Wall Street sinks despite rate cut

Associated Press  

BEIJING — Global stock markets were mixed Wednesday after Wall Street sank despite an emergency U.S. interest cut aimed at defusing fears the virus outbreak might stunt global economic activity. On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index tumbled 2.8% despite the Federal Reserve’s surprise 0.5% rate cut. “Perhaps besides vaccines, there may be little quick and easy solution to …

Surprise! Fed slashes interest rates to counter coronavirus
4 years, 10 months ago

Surprise! Fed slashes interest rates to counter coronavirus

Al Jazeera  

US central bank cuts its benchmark rate by half a percentage point to buoy economy against coronavirus fallout. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point on Tuesday in a surprise move aimed at shoring up the economy against negative fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. During a press conference following the rate cut, Fed Chairman …

Some of the world’s biggest economies are on the brink of recession
4 years, 10 months ago

Some of the world’s biggest economies are on the brink of recession

CNN  

London CNN Business — A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Take Japan: The world’s third-largest economy shrank 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the country absorbed the effects of a sales tax hike and a powerful typhoon. Last year, the Trump administration ended special trade treatment for India, removing a …

A world recession is on the horizon – but trade wars aren’t entirely to blame
5 years, 2 months ago

A world recession is on the horizon – but trade wars aren’t entirely to blame

The Independent  

The R-word, recession, is stalking the land. It is the question confronting finance ministers and central bankers as they gather in Washington this coming week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The IMF has been over-optimistic in the past, and while the emerging world taken as a whole is likely to continue growing, large …

Is the global economy sliding into 1st recession since 2009
5 years, 2 months ago

Is the global economy sliding into 1st recession since 2009

Live Mint  

The global economy is wobbling and whether it topples over is the big question in financial markets, executive suites and the corridors of power. The IMF’s new boss, Kristalina Georgieva, sees a “serious risk” the slowdown will spread, and on Tuesday it’s likely to cut its 2019 global growth forecast from 3.2%, already the weakest since 2009. Reasons to worry …

America’s factories are getting crushed by Trump’s trade war, not the Fed
5 years, 3 months ago

America’s factories are getting crushed by Trump’s trade war, not the Fed

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The trade war is doing real damage to the American economy, and it’s showing up in manufacturing. We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the US and globally.” " Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakely Advisory “As I predicted, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve have allowed the Dollar to …

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble
5 years, 4 months ago

Wall Street’s favorite recession signal suggests the economy is in trouble

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Wall Street’s favorite fortuneteller is telling an ominous story about the fate of America’s economy. If things continue to escalate, that poses a real threat to the business cycle.” James McCann, senior global economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments “Anything over 30% is very bad,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Everyone either looks at …

China says it could do more to stimulate the economy after tiny rate cut
5 years, 4 months ago

China says it could do more to stimulate the economy after tiny rate cut

CNN  

Hong Kong CNN Business — China signaled Tuesdaythat it could take bigger steps to boost its flagging economy after unveiling what amounted to the slimmest of rate cuts on new loans for companies. “While this should nudge banks to reduce lending rates slightly, the impact on economic activity will be marginal,” wrote Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics, …

Asia stocks slump on recession fears after Dow suffers worst day of year; US bond yields plunge
5 years, 4 months ago

Asia stocks slump on recession fears after Dow suffers worst day of year; US bond yields plunge

Firstpost  

The intensifying US-China trade war shows no signs of resolution and the flight to bonds signal the growing fears of a global recession Hong Kong: Asian markets sank Thursday after the Dow suffered its worst day of the year as fears of a global recession mounted with investors fleeing equities. The losses followed a dark day on European bourses and …

AP Explains: Is the US economy nearing a recession?
5 years, 4 months ago

AP Explains: Is the US economy nearing a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Financial markets are flashing a key warning sign of a recession, and the global economy is weakening as the U.S.-China trade war intensifies. So when that equation reverses itself — when longer-term Treasurys pay less than shorter-term ones — economists call it an “inverted yield curve.” An inverted curve suggests that bond investors expect growth to slow so …

AP Explains: Is the US economy nearing a recession?
5 years, 4 months ago

AP Explains: Is the US economy nearing a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Financial markets are flashing a key warning sign of a recession, and the global economy is weakening as the U.S.-China trade war intensifies. So when that equation reverses itself — when longer-term Treasurys pay less than shorter-term ones — economists call it an “inverted yield curve.” An inverted curve suggests that bond investors expect growth to slow so …

US-China trade war intensifies: Donald Trump administration designates Beijing a currency manipulator
5 years, 5 months ago

US-China trade war intensifies: Donald Trump administration designates Beijing a currency manipulator

Firstpost  

The Trump administration’s dramatic move against China hastened the risk aversion seen in global markets this week Tokyo: Global stocks extended their already substantial losses and the offshore yuan hit an all-time low on Tuesday after Washington designated Beijing a currency manipulator in a rapid escalation of the US-China trade war. “Following the latest development in the US-China trade war, …

Global markets tumble as US recession warning flashes 'yellow'
5 years, 9 months ago

Global markets tumble as US recession warning flashes 'yellow'

ABC  

It might not be the perfect indicator of an impending recession, but when long-term interest rates slip below short-term rates it is big worry. The week in finance: US/China trade talks resume Australian private sector credit expected to show another step down in home loans RBA speeches on housing and currency As global markets swooned on Friday, that's exactly what …

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