Why the fall of the rupee should have us all worried
The HinduPublished : Jul 10, 2022 18:00 IST ALL is not quiet on India’s external economic front. In fact, in a recent interview to Business Standard, Duvvuri Subbarao, a former RBI Governor, pointed out that “even as the rupee has depreciated vis-à-vis the dollar, it has actually strengthened against other hard currencies such as the euro and the yen” and that “the RBI should lean towards non-intervention rather than intervention, and allow the rupee to gradually depreciate”. Comparing the situation today with that during the taper tantrum of 2013, when the rupee slumped in value following foreign investor exit triggered by fears of interest rate hikes, he held that the current macroeconomic situation was much better, with “more credibility on the fiscal front” and the expected increase in the current account deficit to over 3 per cent this year likely to “be a one-off”. Factors such as these could necessitate expensive and large imports in the medium term, keeping the import bill and the trade deficit high, with attendant pressure on the rupee. Second, it reduces the level of foreign exchange reserves the central bank holds and curbs its appetite to intervene in the market to stabilise the rupee by selling dollars.