Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War

This hypothetical was tucked into the middle of the 37-page document, which sketched the possibility in 15 spare words: “U.S. John McArthur, a Brookings Institution scholar who sits on the Policy Horizons steering committee, told me the report’s description of American civil war might reflect the depth of Canadian anxiety about U.S. politics, more than a literal concern about an 1861-style war between the states. “Any sense of disruption to your closest sovereign relationship in the world, any disruption within that country, is a deep worry, I think, to any Canadian outlook,” said McArthur, adding: “Canada’s place in the world has become more complex terrain to navigate.” The plausibility of the civil war scenario, he said, depends on “how one defines civil war.” Catherine Beaudry, a professor at Polytechnique Montréal who analyzed the report on a Policy Horizons panel in May, sounded more skeptical. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Employment and Social Development, which houses Policy Horizons, sent me a statement explaining the methodology of the report and underlining that the content “does not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies.” Had they realized, perhaps, that speculating about an ally’s incipient civil war could come off as impolite? There is one credible scenario for American civil war, drawn not from the distant past or from far away but from a recent, nearby example — Canada’s own.