Resurgence may have limited impact on economy
China DailyA medical worker administers a dose of COVID-19 vaccine for a student at a vaccination site in Nanchang, capital of East China's Jiangxi province, Aug 6, 2021. While uncertainty remains, we think the impact of the new COVID-19 infections on China's economy is likely to be limited, because more than 18 provinces have swiftly re-implemented stringent prevention and control measures to contain the spread of the Delta variant; and the vaccination rate in the country has gained additional pace since April. Our study suggests that in case of a mild new outbreak, which is combated with effective containment measures, and only a short period of lockdown-such as in the third quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021-the negative impact is likely to be 1.2-1.7 percent of quarterly GDP, or 0.3-0.4 percent of annual GDP. In case of a mild outbreak, additional policy stimulus needed to achieve 6 percent annual GDP growth should be no more than 0.3 percent of annual GDP, according to our estimate. If the impact of a COVID-19 resurgence is as severe as that in the first quarter of 2020-when face-to-face activity and cross-regional travel largely came to a halt for almost two months in February-March-the negative impact could amount to about 12 percent of quarterly GDP, or 3 percent of annual GDP, and additional policy stimulus needed to achieve 6 percent annual growth would increase to about 3.5 percent of annual GDP.