After Assad, can the Kurds survive in Syria?
The IndependentThe US foreign policy establishment sees the return of Donald Trump to the White House as an imminent threat to the bipartisan consensus in foreign policy matters. Presidents of both US parties since the end of the First World War have uttered pieties about the Kurds’ rights to nationhood, or at least autonomy in the regions of Middle Eastern states where they live in large numbers – Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Our focus on Syria’s nominal capital has distracted us from the emerging civil wars elsewhere in Syria and the geopolitical games played by the two big neighbours, Israel and Turkey. Israeli raids, however, have also destroyed the chance for groups like the Kurds to inherit Assad’s air defence or other weapons to protect themselves from their main enemy, Turkey, and its local Arab and Turkomen proxies in northeast Syria. Israel has good relations with the Kurds running northern Iraq, partly because both fear neighbouring Iran – but it doesn’t trust Erdogan’s Turkey.