
Donald Trump or Joe Biden? US stock market expert predicts presidential poll's surprising result basis indices movement
Hindustan TimesSo who's winning US election, scheduled for 5 November 2024? On the back of a stiff neck on neck competition between Joe Biden and Donald Trump stock market has proven to be a reliable indicator in the past. Recent surveys of prominent prediction markets have shown a wide range of probabilities regarding President Joe Biden's chances of winning re-election, fluctuating from below 38% to as high as 76%. This analysis included the U.S. stock market, real GDP, the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index, and the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey, focusing on their year-to-date changes leading up to Election Day. Analysis findings predict a Joe Biden victory His findings show a clear relationship between the year-to-date performance of the stock market and the probabilities of the incumbent party retaining the presidency.
History of this topic

In his own words: Trump takes credit for stock market rises but casts aside blame for sell-off
Associated Press
'Quite the opposite': Analyst uses data to tear apart Trump's popularity brags
Raw Story
Biden leaves office with higher approval rating than Trump after first term, new poll shows
The Independent
Joe Biden says he could have defeated Donald Trump: ‘I had the best chance’
Hindustan Times
Pollsters who got Trump wrong say they've 'cracked challenge of pinning down his voters'
Raw Story
How whizzkid Shayne Copland's startup Polymarket beat the polls to correctly predict Trump's win
Daily Mail
The 26-year-old whose betting start-up predicted Trump’s triumph
The Telegraph
Prediction markets are basking in their election win. Can it last?
Live Mint
How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
CNN
How the polls accurately forecast a Trump victory
Salon
Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle
CNN
Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller says stock market is 'very convinced' about who will win the 2024 presidential election
Daily Mail
US Presidential polls 2024: Will Donald Trump be next US President? Here's what betting markets predict
Live Mint
'It does confuse me': Fox News host checks pundit claiming stock market better under Trump
Raw Story
Impact of Biden's exit on US markets: More uncertainty will mean more volatility
Hindustan Times
Polling shows both Harris and Biden tied with Trump
NPR
Biden hit with brutal new poll showing staggering number of DEMOCRATS who want him to drop out... as party makes major announcement about his nomination
Daily Mail
The Biden Campaign Says He's Doing Fine. The Post-Debate Polls Say Otherwise.
Huff Post
Surprise: Trump did not get polling boost after shooting
Raw Story
Shock new poll reveals that Biden has the 'same chances of surviving on Mars' as he does winning three key swing states in wake of disastrous two weeks for president
Daily Mail
Are the polls even reliable? Experts examine election polling predictions from 1980 to 2024
Salon
Democratic Sen Michael Bennet says Trump could beat Biden in election ‘landslide’
The Independent
Trump moves ahead of Biden in new post-debate poll
The Independent
CNN Poll: Most voters think Democrats have a better chance of keeping White House if Biden isn’t the nominee
CNN
Bombshell new poll shows the shocking results of how Trump would perform against several Biden replacements after disastrous debate performance
Daily Mail
Biden takes lead over Trump in latest Fox News poll
The Independent
Biden surges past Trump in latest poll by Fox News one week out from the first presidential debate
Daily Mail
Biden gets major boost in new national poll before the CNN debate despite mounting concerns about his age
Daily Mail
Biden vs. Trump remains close, so next week's debate offers them an opportunity
NPR
Poll: Half of voters expect Biden to forget where he is during debate
Daily Mail
Poll Shows Trump's Guilty Verdict May Help Biden's Chances
Huff Post
The trouble with Trump polls
Salon
Biden trails Trump in poll showing RFK Jr winning one in six voters
The Independent
Three reasons Joe Biden is improving in the polls – and one why his numbers are still low
The Independent
Trump leads Biden by FOUR POINTS: Daily Mail poll reveals the president is still trailing his 2024 Republican rival despite multiple visits to swing states while the Donald deals with his legal nightm
Daily Mail
Trump leads Biden in four key battleground states, polls find
The Independent
'Spinning yarns': Professor blasts Dems for creating fantasy that Trump isn't winning
Raw Story
Opinion: Panicking over polls showing Donald Trump ahead of President Biden? Please stop
LA Times
Majority of Americans expect Donald Trump to win against Biden, reveals YouGov poll
Firstpost
Trump leads opponents in popularity, Biden approval hits new low: US poll
Al Jazeera
Joe Biden delivers fresh warning on Donald Trump
Live Mint
Donald Trump complains: Stock market highs just making ‘rich people richer’
Hindustan Times
After touting stock market, Trump claims record high under Biden only makes “rich people richer”
Salon
New poll shows Trump BEATING Biden in 2024 - with cash-strapped voters feeling 'hurt' by president's policies and concerned that the 81-year-old's capacity to hold office is dwindling
Daily Mail
Trump beats Biden among YOUNG voters in new NBC poll - just three years after Dem president held 26 point lead over MAGA rival ahead of the 2020 election
Daily Mail
Biden’s Low Approval Ratings Doesn’t Mean He'll Lose The Election – Here's Why
The Quint
Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in 2024 rematch - and loses key support from independent and younger voters, Daily Mail poll reveals
Daily Mail
2024 US Presidential Elections: Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in new poll
Live Mint
Trump takes 10-point lead over Biden in US presidential race, new poll shows
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