How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme
1 year, 3 months ago

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme

ABC  

El Niño in a changing climate The prospect of a possible El Niño summer, with the hot and dry conditions it's known for in Australia, can be frightening. Sea surface temperature data captured by satellites and buoys is used to determine whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase. CSIRO climate and natural hazards researcher Nandini Ramesh says this year's El Niño is predicted to be moderate to strong, but that doesn't map directly onto Australia. "Right now it's looking like an eastern Pacific El Niño, which historically has had less of a strong impact on Australian rainfall." US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration senior scientist Mike McPhaden says studying the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is "the gift that keeps giving".

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History of this topic

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer

Daily Mail  

Meteorologists have warned there is a strong chance of La Niña forming ahead of summer and bringing heavy rain and flooding to Australia's east. Weatherzone's Joel Pippard said a 'clear La Niña signal' was emerging in the central Pacific Ocean in the form of a pool of cold water collecting about 150m below the surface. Meteorologists are warning there is …

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024
3 months, 1 week ago

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024

ABC  

There are growing signs Australia's most impactful climate driver, La Niña, will develop during the coming months. When the Pacific enters a La Niña state stronger trade winds pile up warmer water near Australia which increase cloud development and rain. Australia's 12 wettest years on record were all associated with La Niña, however most occurred during the stronger events, and …

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat

ABC  

It feels like the seasonal switch has already been flicked in the eastern states. "The temperature forecast is more confident, especially over northern Australia where there is a very high chance of above average temperatures," BOM climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua said. Most of tropical Australia and Tasmania are three to four times as likely to be "unusually warm" this spring than …

The End of El Niño Might Make the Weather Even More Extreme
6 months, 2 weeks ago

The End of El Niño Might Make the Weather Even More Extreme

Wired  

This story originally appeared on Grist and is part of the Climate Desk collaboration. The driving forces behind these projections include the alternating Pacific Ocean climate patterns known as El Niño and La Niña, which can create huge shifts in temperature and precipitation across the North and South American continents. After almost a year of El Niño, La Niña is …

BOM forecasts very warm winter for Australia, with the jury out on rainfall
6 months, 3 weeks ago

BOM forecasts very warm winter for Australia, with the jury out on rainfall

ABC  

Almost all of Australia, including the capital cities, is very likely to experience another "unusually warm" winter, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's official winter outlook. "And it's only really northern Australia showing any chance of unusually dry, but that's in the dry season so basically they get no rain anyway." Good winter rain is needed for Northcliffe dairy farmer …

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024
7 months, 1 week ago

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially moved to La Niña "watch", reflecting an increased chance the major climate driver, which helped bring flooding to eastern Australia in 2021 and 2022, will return later this year. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and has helped deliver significant rainfall and flooding events to Australia in the …

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency
9 months, 1 week ago

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency

ABC  

El Niño's demise and La Niña's emergence is gaining traction, increasing the odds Australia will face another lengthy period of above average rain and cooler temperatures by the back half of 2024. "A transition from El Niño to ENSO neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024," stated NOAA's latest diagnostic. Looking …

US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed
10 months, 1 week ago

US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed

ABC  

In short: The US national weather agency has announced it is on watch for a possible La Niña later this year. Climate scientist Kim Reid says the likelihood of La Niña remains a "coin toss" What's next: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology will be looking for atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate La Niña is coming. La Niña, El Niño and …

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years

ABC  

Australia's most dominant climate driver, La Niña, has a strong chance of reappearing in 2024, shifting the odds to favour a wet year. Since 1950, La Niña years on average produced an increase in rain of 23 per cent, while El Niño years only brought a drop of 7 per cent, although south-east Australia observes a more significant dry swing …

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states
11 months, 2 weeks ago

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states

ABC  

Australian weather has always been prone to extremes, which is why the sunburnt country is known for its drought and flooding rains. "So when we know it's going to be an El Niño it changes that probability so the segment for dry conditions on that chocolate wheel is much larger, and the wet is smaller." "When we talk about dry …

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
1 year, 3 months ago

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and summer. What future El Niño summers could look like Photo shows A globe centred on Australia showing sea surface temperature patterns in red and blue with a time scale …

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster
1 year, 3 months ago

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster

The Hindu  

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to …

New data reveals 2023 is on track for record heat — and next year should be even hotter
1 year, 4 months ago

New data reveals 2023 is on track for record heat — and next year should be even hotter

ABC  

Earth has just passed another climate milestone. After widespread global heatwaves through June and July, 2023's average air temperature for the year so far is 14.99 degrees Celsius — just passing the previous high of 14.98C from seven years ago. Next year likely to be warmer If you look back through global temperatures since 1950, there's an obvious trend: the …

Farmers turn to climate scientists to help prepare for future weather as El Niño looms
1 year, 5 months ago

Farmers turn to climate scientists to help prepare for future weather as El Niño looms

ABC  

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially declare an El Niño, but food growers are already bracing for hotter, drier conditions ahead. Key points: A Queensland vegetable grower is consulting a leading climate scientist to prepare for future weather Australia remains on El Niño alert, with the US and UN weather agencies having already declared the event is underway …

US weather agency declares first El Niño in eight years is already underway
1 year, 6 months ago

US weather agency declares first El Niño in eight years is already underway

ABC  

Days after the Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Niño warning, its US equivalent has raised the stakes and declared the weather event is already underway. Source: NOAA The evolution to El Niño has been predicted by models since late 2022 and the event is almost guaranteed to become the first fully established Pacific warm episode in eight years. Sea …

El Nino develops, experts wary of poor monsoon spell
1 year, 6 months ago

El Nino develops, experts wary of poor monsoon spell

Hindustan Times  

El Nino conditions have emerged, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday, with the weather phenomenon threatening to push the global temperature to new highs. El Nino is the warming of waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, often accompanied by a slowing or reversal of easterly trade winds Read here: Monsoon finally reaches Kerala, but onset weak Weak …

El Nino under way, raising fears of extreme weather patterns
1 year, 6 months ago

El Nino under way, raising fears of extreme weather patterns

Al Jazeera  

US climate agency says phenomenon, which leads to warmer temperatures, is back after three years. The El Nino climate phenomenon has arrived and is likely to yield extreme weather later this year, including above average temperatures, scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have announced. Unlike the La Nina climate pattern, which often lowers global temperatures slightly and …

El Niño predictions differ between US and Australian forecast agencies. Who is right?
1 year, 7 months ago

El Niño predictions differ between US and Australian forecast agencies. Who is right?

ABC  

The US and Australia's chief forecasting agencies are projecting vastly different odds on the development of an El Niño climate pattern this year. Whereas the BOM requires both the ocean and the atmosphere to be showing signs of change before they upgrade the likelihood to an El Niño "alert", which means a 70 per cent chance. But, for the BOM …

US climate agency declares chance of El Niño now above 90 per cent in 2023
1 year, 7 months ago

US climate agency declares chance of El Niño now above 90 per cent in 2023

ABC  

Eastern Australia is facing the increased likelihood of a dry winter and spring with a United States federal agency declaring an El Niño pattern almost a foregone conclusion. The US Climate Prediction Centre has raised the chance of El Niño, the Pacific warm phase, to above 90 per cent by August and indicated a greater than 50 per cent chance …

How a potential 'extreme' El Niño climate pattern would affect Australia
1 year, 7 months ago

How a potential 'extreme' El Niño climate pattern would affect Australia

ABC  

The prospect of an El Niño climate pattern is looking increasingly likely as waters off South America's west coast warm, with some models even tipping conditions for an "extreme" event to occur. The Australian model even projects ocean temperatures in the Pacific could warm to a point indicative of an "extreme" El Niño — an event that can severely disrupt …

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia
1 year, 8 months ago

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia

ABC  

The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely in 2023, increasing the odds of drier and warmer weather across eastern Australia. While the Bureau of Meteorology's Pacific status is currently set at El Niño Watch, defined as about a 50 per cent chance of development, one US federal government department says the …

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023
1 year, 9 months ago

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has simultaneously declared the end of La Niña and an El Niño Watch, indicating a potential rapid shift to hot, dry weather in 2023. Key points: The last Pacific warm phase, or El Niño, developed in 2015 It has a reputation for brining drought and bushfires Experts predict there is a 50 per cent chance of …

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over
1 year, 9 months ago

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over

ABC  

After three years of floods and record rainfall in parts of eastern and northern Australia, La Niña is on the way out. Neutral years now resemble El Niño Last century Australia's worst droughts tended to coincide with El Niño. Australia's total rainfall in neutral years has been lower than El Nino years, a reversal of last century Australia's temperatures in …

Bureau of Meteorology considering change to El Niño and La Niña definitions
1 year, 10 months ago

Bureau of Meteorology considering change to El Niño and La Niña definitions

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology is in discussions with international atmospheric agencies to overhaul how La Niña and El Niño are defined, potentially rewriting the record books of global weather history. Key points: Meteorological agencies released contradictory declarations on the state of the Pacific Ocean, causing confusion The BOM's manager of climate prediction services says current methods are simplistic A global …

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare
2 years, 2 months ago

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

Australia remains at La Niña alert amid near-record Indian Ocean Dipole event
2 years, 3 months ago

Australia remains at La Niña alert amid near-record Indian Ocean Dipole event

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has held off declaring a La Niña event in its latest Climate Driver Update, despite other countries around the world recognising La Niña to be already in effect. Key points: The US, Japan, India and other countries have already declared La Niña Australia still makes calculations based on average sea temperatures from the 1961-1990, which affects …

BOM's latest outlook signals soggy spring weather for eastern Australia
2 years, 3 months ago

BOM's latest outlook signals soggy spring weather for eastern Australia

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology's official outlook suggests we are heading towards a soggy spring for eastern Australia but relatively dry in the west. Key points: In a blow to flood-riddled communities, there is a strong chance of above median rainfall for much of eastern Australia this spring In contrast, spring rain is likely to be average to below average in …

La Niña officially over, but Bureau of Meteorology says it might be back in spring
2 years, 6 months ago

La Niña officially over, but Bureau of Meteorology says it might be back in spring

ABC  

La Niña, the weather pattern that has lashed Australia with record rain and floods for months, has finally ended, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Key points: A climatologist says a third consecutive La Niña could increase the chances of rain for an "already saturated" east coast A triple La Niña has only happened three times before, most recently in …

Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up
2 years, 6 months ago

Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up

Associated Press  

Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. “They don’t know when to leave,” said Michelle L’Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino. We need …

Wet autumn outlook for parts of eastern Australia as the BOM predicts above average rainfall
2 years, 8 months ago

Wet autumn outlook for parts of eastern Australia as the BOM predicts above average rainfall

ABC  

For anyone looking for an end to the wet weather soaking Australia's east coast, the news isn't good — above average rainfall is set to continue. Key points: Above median rainfall is likely for northern and eastern Australia between April and June Australia is in its second consecutive La Niña year and a third isn't out of the question While …

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