Rural distress can’t get buried in growth story
6 years, 9 months ago

Rural distress can’t get buried in growth story

Live Mint  

Data released by the Central Statistics Office last month suggested a recovery in economic growth during the fourth quarter of 2017-18, with the economy expanding by 7.7% compared to that in the first quarter, when growth was at its lowest at 5.7%. The misery is no longer about rural India growing slower than the rest of the economy; it is now a story of acute distress and misery, which has intensified in the last four years. While the trend in revival of growth rates may have given rise to temporary cheer, inflation data released last month suggests the cloud of uncertainty is still lurking, with inflation rising to 4.9% in May 2018. While India may be witnessing a revival of growth rates based on quarterly GDP estimates, Bharat has seen situations worsen since the first quarter of last year. While economists may choose to ignore the discontent and distress in the rural economy, for the democracy of this country, there cannot be an India growth story in which Bharat is not included.

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History of this topic

Himanshu: Will the budget’s proposals help revive India’s rural economy?
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Himanshu: Will the budget’s proposals help revive India’s rural economy?

Live Mint  

That the Indian economy is going through a difficult phase is no longer a matter of speculation. Still, neither did the budget offer anything new to boost agricultural incomes or worker productivity, nor did it allocate enough to revive the non-farm economy. The Centre’s plan to increase incomes and productivity in 100 backward districts is also unconvincing, given that the …

Can the budget unlock labour market potential?
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Can the budget unlock labour market potential?

Hindustan Times  

India’s labour market has made notable strides in recent years, bolstered by a strong post-pandemic recovery and increased formalisation of employment. One of the primary concerns is the stagnation of salaried employment, which suggests weaker demand for skilled labour or slower expansion in the industrial and service sectors, both essential for long-term economic growth. The substantial ₹38,000 crore allocation to …

Govt announces multiple schemes for Bharat; allocation inadequate to match inflationary pressure
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Govt announces multiple schemes for Bharat; allocation inadequate to match inflationary pressure

Live Mint  

The FY26 budget announced a long thread of schemes for rural India, including a comprehensive multi-sectoral rural prosperity and resilience programme, grameen credit score and broadband connectivity for all government secondary schools and primary health centres. Sitharaman also said India Post with 150,000 rural post offices, complemented by the India Post Payment Bank and a vast network of 240,000 Dak …

Govt announces multiple schemes for Bharat; allocation inadequate to match inflationary pressure
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Govt announces multiple schemes for Bharat; allocation inadequate to match inflationary pressure

Live Mint  

The FY26 budget announced a long thread of schemes for rural India, including a comprehensive multi-sectoral rural prosperity and resilience programme, grameen credit score and broadband connectivity for all government secondary schools and primary health centres. Sitharaman also said India Post with 150,000 rural post offices, complemented by the India Post Payment Bank and a vast network of 240,000 Dak …

The Broadening Horizons of Rural Investment
2 months, 1 week ago

The Broadening Horizons of Rural Investment

Live Mint  

If someone suggests investing in rural opportunities, it’s natural to assume they are referring to investments in agriculture. Non-agricultural rural income is also rising, as the significant welfare schemes expenditure by the government is pegged at Rs—3.1 trillion, along with a rebound in real rural wage growth. Some other key drivers that are also adding to the positive sentiment in …

A tale of two Indias: Inequality alleviation is a challenge we must tackle head-on
2 months, 2 weeks ago

A tale of two Indias: Inequality alleviation is a challenge we must tackle head-on

Live Mint  

Over the past seven decades, India’s income inequality has transformed significantly, with stark divergences between rural and urban areas. From 1975 to 1995, the income Gini ratio declined slightly to 0.376, reflecting poverty alleviation schemes like the Integrated Rural Development Programme and land reforms. However, rural inequality has risen gradually due to structural constraints and slower policy impact, while urban …

Stagnant wages amid fast economic growth: We need an Indian Enlightenment
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Stagnant wages amid fast economic growth: We need an Indian Enlightenment

Live Mint  

India’s economic growth story has been impressive. Wage stagnation amid rising inflation: The disparity between India’s economic growth and stagnant wages is stark. Chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran warns that low wages could stifle India’s long-term potential by weakening consumer demand and the quality of life for millions. This is not the template for a ‘Viksit Bharat.’ The paradox …

India’s growth slowdown: Yes, RBI does need to respond
3 months, 3 weeks ago

India’s growth slowdown: Yes, RBI does need to respond

Live Mint  

The Indian economy is in the midst of a cyclical slowdown. The Indian government is still in the process of getting public finances back into shape after the pandemic shock, when it had to support economic activity even as tax collections collapsed. There is a compelling case for the monetary policy committee, which is meeting this week to decide its …

IMF Sees India's Economic Growth and Outlook as Stable
5 months ago

IMF Sees India's Economic Growth and Outlook as Stable

New Indian Express  

India remains the world's fastest-growing economy, with inflation expected to decline to 4.4% in FY24-25. IMF Director Krishna Srinivasan highlights the country's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including a large and growing population, favourable harvests, and a stable fiscal situation. Srinivasan suggests that the country focus on creating jobs, removing trade restrictions, and investing in infrastructure and education to strengthen its economy …

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown
5 months ago

India's Growth Outlook: A Beacon of Stability Despite Temporary Slowdown

Deccan Chronicle  

India's growth outlook remains steady despite a temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25. The country's aggregate demand is expected to shrug off the slowdown due to the pick-up in festival demand and consumer confidence. Domestic manufacturing and services PMI have shown signs of improvement, while rural demand is expected to get a boost from the improved …

Rural-Urban Consumption Dynamics in India
9 months, 2 weeks ago

Rural-Urban Consumption Dynamics in India

Deccan Chronicle  

Over the past decade, India has witnessed a notable rise in consumption spending in both rural and urban areas, indicating a shift in economic dynamics and lifestyle choices. Furthermore, the changing food habits of the Indian populace have contributed to the evolving consumption patterns observed in both rural and urban areas. In conclusion, the equivalent rise in consumption spending in …

GDP growth impresses, but rural demand remains a worry
9 months, 4 weeks ago

GDP growth impresses, but rural demand remains a worry

New Indian Express  

India’s economic growth seems to be going gangbusters. Ending nearly a decade-long wait, real GDP growth crossed the 8 percent mark, touching 8.2 percent in 2023-24. Provisional data released by the National Statistics Office also showed that the gross value added—net of subsidies and taxes, and hence considered a better measure of economic activity—grew by 7.2 percent. Agriculture and allied …

Growth mania can be injurious to society
1 year, 1 month ago

Growth mania can be injurious to society

The Hindu  

The nation’s media, present in full force at the annual conference of the World Economic Forum, dutifully relayed back to India sound bytes uttered by the allies of the world’s giant corporations. Rural wage rates A simple exercise would cast light on how unequal recent growth in India has been. Even for the section of the rural workforce for which …

Indian economy is resilient amid global slowdown: Sitharaman
1 year, 4 months ago

Indian economy is resilient amid global slowdown: Sitharaman

Hindustan Times  

The Indian economy is “remarkably resilient” amid a global slowdown because of “solid” domestic demand, moderate inflation, sustained capital expenditure and continued buoyancy in revenue collections, the finance ministry said in its monthly review on Tuesday. “Despite rising input costs, overall sentiment in the services sector remains upbeat, driven, among others, by an upswing in the tourism cum hotel industry …

Book Review: ‘Distress in the Fields: Indian Agriculture after Economic Liberalization’ edited by R Ramakumar
2 years, 1 month ago

Book Review: ‘Distress in the Fields: Indian Agriculture after Economic Liberalization’ edited by R Ramakumar

The Hindu  

Published : Feb 23, 2023 10:40 IST Distress in the Fields is an exhaustive account of the agricultural policies enforced in India after the 1991 economic reforms and the agrarian crisis that followed. “Economic reforms after 1991 explicitly rejected the need for institutional transformation in agriculture,” writes Prof. Ramakumar in the introductory chapter. Madhura Swaminathan delves into studying interpersonal inequalities …

Rural demand recovery may drive next bout of inflation in India, say economists
2 years, 1 month ago

Rural demand recovery may drive next bout of inflation in India, say economists

India Today  

The Indian economy could see another bout of inflation as the rural demand revives and the informal sector recovers from the pandemic-lows, economists at HSBC Securities and Capital Markets said. While rural demand was weak in the early part of last year, wage growth, adjusted for inflation, has now surpassed pre-pandemic levels, HSBC's research showed. "Even if the winter crop …

Budget 2023: ’Rural income growth, women empowerment should be priority’
2 years, 1 month ago

Budget 2023: ’Rural income growth, women empowerment should be priority’

Live Mint  

With global geopolitical uncertainties and the slowing growth of the world economy, it is crucial to address job creation challenges and boost consumer demand in the country. The upcoming budget should be focused on rural income growth and our target should be at least 100% growth in every household income in near future. Through women's self-help groups, millions of jobs …

Year in Review | Indian economy amid global headwinds
2 years, 3 months ago

Year in Review | Indian economy amid global headwinds

The Hindu  

Multiple headwinds at varied points of time impacted the Indian economy’s thorough economic revival in the calendar year 2022. “India’s growth rates in real terms of 9.7% in the first half of this year is well above the trend in other countries and is happening amid tightening global financial conditions and the commodity price shock since the Ukraine invasion by …

The truth about ‘the India story’
2 years, 4 months ago

The truth about ‘the India story’

The Hindu  

As the COVID-19 pandemic fades and hopes rise for nations and societies to return to some kind of normalcy, there is effort all around to take stock of where we stand and what our prospects look like. In fact, from 2003 to 2011, barring one year, the start of the Great Recession in 2008-09, India was on top of most …

India’s population growth: Is it boon or bane?
2 years, 8 months ago

India’s population growth: Is it boon or bane?

Firstpost  

The greatest growth in population in India, higher than the national average, is taking place amongst the poorest, in the least developed states, amongst the uneducated and malnourished Of the current world population of 8 billion in 2022, India and China account for roughly 2.8 billion, on a more or less equal basis. However, the greatest growth in population in …

Growth is just not picking up, but no end to triumphalism
4 years, 2 months ago

Growth is just not picking up, but no end to triumphalism

Deccan Chronicle  

We have entered the 13th consecutive quarter of economic slowdown in India. Speaking loudly of competing with China and America but then falling behind even Bangladesh’s per capita GDP does not inspire confidence. When results for the same quarter year on year appear sometime in the middle of 2021, Prime Minister Modi will exclaim that we are the world’s fastest-growing …

A path for the Indian economy to find its way out of the woods
4 years, 3 months ago

A path for the Indian economy to find its way out of the woods

Live Mint  

As much we would like to forget 2020, it is unlikely we will anytime soon. The rural economy accounts for almost half of India’s GDP and has done better than its urban counterpart, as reflected in the better performance of sectors with a rural footprint, such as tractors, two-wheelers, fertilizers and agrochemicals. Second, government support is tilted towards the rural …

Don’t take rural demand for granted as a growth driver
4 years, 5 months ago

Don’t take rural demand for granted as a growth driver

Live Mint  

Rising covid afflictions in the hinterland are indeed worrying—not just because of the relatively poor health infrastructure there, but also the wider disruption to economic activity it portends. Two, India’s rural-focused measures such as higher spending under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, extension of concessional credit to farmers, and front-loading of payments to farmers under the Pradhan …

India’s growth story has never seemed so endangered
4 years, 6 months ago

India’s growth story has never seemed so endangered

Live Mint  

We all knew it would be bad, but no one could have predicted just how bad. Supply and credit links, which had been largely cash-based in the informal sector, among others, remained broken even after high-denomination currency came back into circulation, and some small businesses and poorer households—we will likely never know how many—never recovered to their level of well-being …

The crisis that shattered India’s economic dreams
5 years, 1 month ago

The crisis that shattered India’s economic dreams

Live Mint  

Wish Town was once a sought-after destination for India’s aspiring middle classes seeking a slice of the “good days” promised by an ambitious Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he swept to power more than five years ago. India’s slumping consumption is so severe that it’s denting global growth and prompting economists including last year’s Nobel prize winner Abhijit Banerjee to …

Banking sector in India under 'stress', govt not in a position to bail it out, says Abhijit Banerjee
5 years, 2 months ago

Banking sector in India under 'stress', govt not in a position to bail it out, says Abhijit Banerjee

Firstpost  

Speaking to the media on the sidelines of the 13th Jaipur Literature Festival, Abhijit Banerjee said the demand slowdown in the automobile sector also shows that people are lacking confidence in the economy Jaipur: Nobel laureate and economist Abhijit Banerjee on Sunday said the banking sector in the country was “stressed” and that the government was in no position to …

Growth recession: Can Modi govt ensure India rides out the storm?
5 years, 3 months ago

Growth recession: Can Modi govt ensure India rides out the storm?

India Today  

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has insisted that things are not as bad as they are being presented on economic front. This means at 4.5 per cent for July-September quarter might not be the lowest GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year. The economy has been slowing down for six consecutive quarters despite the Narendra Modi government announcing a …

No festive cheer in the economy
5 years, 5 months ago

No festive cheer in the economy

Live Mint  

The Indian economy’s momentum continued to slow in September, with most indicators of domestic demand still flashing red, the latest edition of the Mint Macro Tracker shows. All four variables of the consumer economy—passenger sales growth, broadband subscriber growth, tractor sales growth and domestic air passenger growth—have been in red for eight successive months now. The production side of the …

A rural stimulus: On MGNREGA wage hike
5 years, 6 months ago

A rural stimulus: On MGNREGA wage hike

The Hindu  

The government’s statistical machinery has begun work on revising the indices that capture the trends in consumer prices experienced in rural India. But two-thirds of the dated inflation index is still driven by food prices, which may effectively end up understating the price pressures facing rural households. This depressant effect could be accentuated when low food inflation coincides with decelerating …

‘Disappointed with lack of reforms; govt living in echo chamber’
5 years, 7 months ago

‘Disappointed with lack of reforms; govt living in echo chamber’

Deccan Chronicle  

Former Union minister Milind Deora is known for his articulate views on various issues impacting our country. Mr Deora, a close aide of the recently resigned Congress president Rahul Gandhi, has been vocal about the economic downturn in India and had also urged the Congress leadership to come up with a credible economic narrative to counter the BJP. However, I …

Low India inflation a double-edged sword for Modi before Elections 2019
6 years ago

Low India inflation a double-edged sword for Modi before Elections 2019

Live Mint  

Mumbai: Subdued inflation in India is proving to be a dilemma for Prime Minister Narendra Modi weeks before Lok Sabha Elections 2019. “While Modi has managed to keep inflation under control, it has come at a cost,” said Priyanka Kishore, head India and South-east Asia economist at Oxford Economics in Singapore. The Consumer Price Index -based retail inflation rose 2.57% …

Indian economy is losing momentum, data shows
6 years, 1 month ago

Indian economy is losing momentum, data shows

Live Mint  

Mumbai/New Delhi: The Indian economy’s momentum continues to slow, shows the latest update of the Mint Macro Tracker, launched in October last year to provide a state-of-the-economy report each month based on trends across 16 high-frequency economic indicators. January’s score is also a shade worse than that of December 2018—which itself marked a downward slide compared to previous months—when five …

How Nehru led to agrarian distress and what could be the way forward for inclusive growth
6 years, 1 month ago

How Nehru led to agrarian distress and what could be the way forward for inclusive growth

Op India  

Historical backdrop and policy impact: In 1947 when Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru took over reins of Independent India, deeply influenced by Marxist-Leninist socialism, he strived to achieve India’s prosperity by creating mammoth public sector enterprises that were engaged in manufacturing steel to running forcibly nationalised airlines. Moreover, other priority areas like primary education, health provisioning, family welfare, and even rural …

It’s a great leap backward on the employment front in India’s rural areas
6 years, 1 month ago

It’s a great leap backward on the employment front in India’s rural areas

Live Mint  

Shiv Prasad has a plan—one that he feels can change his destiny. “The problem is that we, being part of the government, cannot acknowledge that demonetization seriously disrupted the flow of activity and massively contributed to employment-related problems.” A visit to a government-run industrial training institute in Banda, nestled inside a village named Motihari, is testimony to the utter lack …

Core inflation flourishes in Rural India amid growing agrarian crisis
6 years, 3 months ago

Core inflation flourishes in Rural India amid growing agrarian crisis

Live Mint  

When income is stagnant, a logical outcome could be curtailing expenditure. But rural India seems to be fine with paying higher prices for services that range from education to matinee shows. The chart above shows inflation for services and a few discretionary items has been higher in rural areas compared to urban centres. It is also clear that farm income …

Agrarian crisis clear & present danger for Indian economy
6 years, 3 months ago

Agrarian crisis clear & present danger for Indian economy

Live Mint  

India’s gross domestic product growth for the second quarter has laid bare the deepening distress in its villages. The country’s agricultural output, measured as gross value added, grew at a sedate pace of 2.8%, far slower than the 5.3% in the June quarter. Consumption demand from the rural economy also needs to hold up for the overall growth rate to …

Why reports of agriculture’s demise are greatly exaggerated
6 years, 6 months ago

Why reports of agriculture’s demise are greatly exaggerated

Live Mint  

Bengaluru/New Delhi: Farmers may be looking for alternative avenues of income, but it is too soon to write off the significance of agriculture in rural India, data from the recently released Nabard All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey shows. An initial reading of the survey findings seems to suggest that earnings from farm-related activities—cultivation and livestock rearing—contributed just 43% to …

Gap between skilled and unskilled, rural and urban, online and offline is reducing; Bharat no longer backbencher of growth story
6 years, 11 months ago

Gap between skilled and unskilled, rural and urban, online and offline is reducing; Bharat no longer backbencher of growth story

Firstpost  

India, that is, Bharat - the majority of our country that is living in villages – is symbolic of our aspirations. It’s been two years since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the government’s ‘Rurban’ Mission, with a cluster-based development model, to provide urban amenities to rural India. Three hundred village clusters were created keeping in mind that rural India isn’t …

Budget 2018: Will govt be able to work a miracle for hopeful consumer firms?
7 years, 2 months ago

Budget 2018: Will govt be able to work a miracle for hopeful consumer firms?

Live Mint  

Mumbai: Consumer packaged goods firms are hoping for a budget miracle that will boost rural demand and, in turn, drive earnings revival. However, the government may not have enough legroom to increase its budget expenditure allocation for rural spending because it continues to struggle to meet its fiscal deficit target, say economists. “In the 2017-18 Budget, while the target was …

Can Budget 2018 address slowdown in rural economy?
7 years, 2 months ago

Can Budget 2018 address slowdown in rural economy?

Live Mint  

The results of the Gujarat elections, in which the opposition Congress outperformed the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in rural constituencies, and the growing number of farmer agitations in the country have focused attention on rural India ahead of this year’s budget. In fact, the Mint index of rural distress has been declining over the past couple of years after it …

Demonetisation’s Devastating Impact on Rural India: Agriculture, Incomes, and Demand in Crisis
8 years, 3 months ago

Demonetisation’s Devastating Impact on Rural India: Agriculture, Incomes, and Demand in Crisis

The Hindu  

George Orwell once wrote that “in our times, political speech and writing are largely the defence of the indefensible” that takes the form of “arguments which are too brutal for most people to face”. In a village economy, 80 per cent of the people take Rs.50 and Rs.100 notes to local mandis and do trading, with hardly two to three …

Demonetisation: Economic growth to take a hit
8 years, 4 months ago

Demonetisation: Economic growth to take a hit

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: After ten days of demonetisation, the Indian economy is looking to get hit by at least 50 basis points in just this fiscal year as the rural economy comes to a standstill. The economic growth rate instead of being 7.5 per cent or 7.6 per cent will probably be closer to 7 or 7.1 per cent,” first Chief …

Why higher govt spending is crucial to contain rural distress
9 years, 4 months ago

Why higher govt spending is crucial to contain rural distress

Firstpost  

If PM Modi doesn’t act fast enough, the farm distress is likely to prove to be his Achilles heel. A survey by brokerage JM Financial argues that while the farm income has been on the decline in the rural area, non-farm income has remained flat at the best, impacting rural consumption. The report has attributed the decline in farm income …

Investors unhappy over pace of reform: Moody’s
9 years, 8 months ago

Investors unhappy over pace of reform: Moody’s

The Hindu  

Results of polls global ratings agency Moody’s carried out in Mumbai in May reflect some “disappointment amongst investor audiences with regard to the pace of reform” under the Modi government, and “increasing concerns about the risk of policy stagnation.” Almost half of the poll respondents identified “sluggish reform momentum as the greatest risk to India’s macroeconomic story.” Project approval delays, …

The twist in the growth story
10 years, 1 month ago

The twist in the growth story

The Hindu  

The data on national income released recently give a new twist to India’s growth story. While the earlier estimate showed a growth rate of 4.7 per cent, the growth rate according to the new estimate is 6.6 per cent. In 2012-13, the growth rate came down to 4.5 per cent according to the old estimate and 4.9 per cent as …

NREGA didn't deliver where it mattered most: rural wage incomes
10 years, 2 months ago

NREGA didn't deliver where it mattered most: rural wage incomes

Firstpost  

The sharp fall in GDP growth rates from 2011 to now has impacted rural wages despite the steady increase in NREGA minimum wages. A report in The Indian Express today says rural wage growth rose barely 3.8 percent in November year-on-year, apparently the lowest since July 2005. Since minimum wages were raised every year by indexing to inflation, this means …

Rural India in decline
11 years, 10 months ago

Rural India in decline

Live Mint  

There were 180 million more Indians in 2011 than a decade ago. A simple extrapolation from that chart suggests that 27 Indian states are likely to begin seeing shrinking rural populations in this decade, a monumental demographic change. Meanwhile, there is a noticeable asymmetry: Nearly half of the total rural population growth across India is accounted for by two politically …

Rising rural wages offsetting inflation pinch: RBI
12 years, 3 months ago

Rising rural wages offsetting inflation pinch: RBI

Firstpost  

Gokarn said, it’s “puzzling” to understand why the recent episodes of high inflation, particularly driven by food prices, have not evoked the kind of sharp provocation that had rocked the nation many times in the past 50-60 years. Mumbai: High inflation may not be generating the same kind of “unrest” that it used to in the past as rural wages …

India's agriculture boom fuels 'rural urbanization'
12 years, 9 months ago

India's agriculture boom fuels 'rural urbanization'

China Daily  

Forget what you think you know about rural India. It also has created a consumer market that makes many of India's hundreds of thousands of remote villages look a little more like cities. The investment bank Credit Suisse described that blurring of urban and rural as "the great Indian equalisation" in a recent analyst report. "In the past we used …

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