ICRA cuts 2022-23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2% from 8%
The HinduRating agency ICRA has slashed its 2022-23 growth forecast for India’s GDP to 7.2% from 8%, citing elevated commodity prices and supply chain challenges arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as higher prices of fuels and edible oils denting demand due to squeezed household incomes. “Moreover, the K-shaped recovery appears likely to continue with the formal sector gaining market share in the coming year,” said ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar, adding that higher prices of fuels and items such as edible oils are likely to compress disposable incomes in the mid to lower income segments, constraining the demand revival in 2022-23. While the extension of free foodgrains under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana until September 2022 may offer some respite to the food budgets of vulnerable households, Ms. Nayar said ‘behaviour normalisation’ in the mid- to upper-income segments could drive consumption of contact-intensive services that were avoided during the COVID-19 pandemic so far. An early kick-off of the government’s budgeted capex programme remains crucial to boost investment activity in the first half of the coming year, the agency said.