Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel. Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024. Economists also more than doubled their estimates for the number of jobs gained across the economy this year, though it would still likely be down from the previous one.

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Economists’ 2025 housing market forecasts largely call for mortgage rates to stay above 6% next year
1 week, 3 days ago

Economists’ 2025 housing market forecasts largely call for mortgage rates to stay above 6% next year

Associated Press  

LOS ANGELES — Home shoppers hoping for more attractive mortgage rates next year may be disappointed. Most of the eight forecasts call for the average rate on a 30-year mortgage to remain above 6% next year, with some including an upper range as high as 6.8%. “Even by the end of next year it’s hard to see sub 6% mortgage …

American consumers feeling more confident in July as expectations of future improve
4 months, 3 weeks ago

American consumers feeling more confident in July as expectations of future improve

Associated Press  

American consumers felt more confident in July as expectations over the near-term future rebounded. “Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year,” said Dana Peterson, The Conference Board’s chief economist. The number of …

Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Hobbled by high interest rates, persistent inflation, slumping trade and a diminished China, the global economy will slow for a third consecutive year in 2024. “Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries — especially the poorest — stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of …

Why did economists go wrong by forecasting a US recession this year?
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Why did economists go wrong by forecasting a US recession this year?

Live Mint  

Last year at this time, 85% of economists in a poll predicted a recession in the US this year—and that was an optimistic take, compared to the 100% probability of a recession forecast two months earlier. As US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last week: “So many economists were saying there’s no way for inflation to get back to normal …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says
1 year ago

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says

LA Times  

A crane lifts a shipping container at an automated container port in Tianjin, China. The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and …

IMF predicts Indian economy to grow at 6.1 percent in 2023
1 year, 4 months ago

IMF predicts Indian economy to grow at 6.1 percent in 2023

Deccan Chronicle  

Washington: The International Monetary Fund has predicted that India's economy will grow at 6.1 percent in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection, reflecting momentum from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment. IMF said in the latest update of the World Economic Outlook that growth in …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

US consumers are feeling the most optimistic since September 2021
1 year, 5 months ago

US consumers are feeling the most optimistic since September 2021

CNN  

Washington, DC CNN — Inflation’s steady slowdown in recent months has kept Americans feeling optimistic about the future. Despite the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in decades, which was put on hold last month, the labor market has held remarkably steady while inflation has slowed, raising the odds of a so-called soft landing — or a scenario in which …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

What’s in store for investors in 2023? 8 predictions to help you set right expectations
1 year, 11 months ago

What’s in store for investors in 2023? 8 predictions to help you set right expectations

Live Mint  

In 2022, equity investors had a difficult time. One event after another spooked market sentiments, whether it was the crypto currency crash, the Russia-Ukraine war, or inflation and higher interest rates. Here are our eight predictions for the coming year The rate of inflation would have either reached its zenith or begun to decline Inflation will start to decrease after …

From China to inflation, 5 economic trends to watch in 2023
1 year, 11 months ago

From China to inflation, 5 economic trends to watch in 2023

Al Jazeera  

The global economy is facing risks and opportunities next year from rising interest rates to China’s reopening. The partial reversal of globalisation means more expensive imports, shortages of labour in many Western countries leads to more expensive production, and green transition measures to combat the greatest threat our species faces are all leading to higher inflation than we’ve been used …

World economy to experience recession in 2023, says Centre for Economics and Business Research
1 year, 11 months ago

World economy to experience recession in 2023, says Centre for Economics and Business Research

Firstpost  

The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the world will experience a recession in 2023 as a result of rising borrowing prices intended to combat inflation. According to the British consultancy’s annual World Economic …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Fed policymakers see higher U.S. interest rates for longer
2 years ago

Fed policymakers see higher U.S. interest rates for longer

The Hindu  

Federal Reserve policymakers expect to raise U.S. interest rates further, and keep them high for longer, than they had earlier anticipated, signaling Wednesday that squashing high inflation will likely take a bigger toll on the economy and the job market than they had hoped. U.S. central bankers see the policy rate, now in the 4.25%-4.5% range after Wednesday's 50-basis-point increase, …

OECD forecast: High rates, inflation to slow world growth
2 years, 1 month ago

OECD forecast: High rates, inflation to slow world growth

Associated Press  

Hobbled by high interest rates, punishing inflation and Russia’s war against Ukraine, the world economy is expected to eke out only modest growth this year and to expand even more tepidly in 2023. Inflation — largely fueled by high energy prices — “has become broad-based and persistent,” Cormann said, while “real household incomes across many countries have weakened despite support …

World economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 5.9% : OECD
2 years, 1 month ago

World economy to grow 3.1% this year, down from 5.9% : OECD

Al Jazeera  

While not predicting a global recession, the OECD said it was ‘a very, very challenging outlook’ for this year and next. Hobbled by high interest rates, punishing inflation and Russia’s war against Ukraine, the world economy is expected to eke out only modest growth this year and to expand even more tepidly in 2023. In the OECD’s estimation, the world …

'Worst to come... 2023 will feel like recession': IMF warns, cuts India forecast
2 years, 2 months ago

'Worst to come... 2023 will feel like recession': IMF warns, cuts India forecast

Hindustan Times  

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut India's 2022 economic growth forecast to 6.8 per cent - down from a January projection of 8.2 per cent and in July estimate of 7.4 per cent. India's GDP growth slashed to 6.8 per cent by International Monetary Fund In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said over a third of the …

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession
2 years, 3 months ago

Powell: Higher rates unlikely to cause deep US recession

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The last time the Federal Reserve faced inflation as high as it is now, in the early 1980s, it jacked up interest rates to double-digit levels — and in the process caused a deep recession and sharply higher unemployment. “We think we can avoid the very high social costs that Paul Volcker and the Fed had to bring …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 4 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

World economy seen withstanding coronavirus better than forecast
4 years, 3 months ago

World economy seen withstanding coronavirus better than forecast

Live Mint  

The global economic slump won’t be as sharp as previously feared this year, though the recovery is losing pace and will need support from governments and central banks for some time yet, according to the OECD. The world economy will shrink 4.5% this year, less than the 6% forecast in June, the Paris-based institution said on Wednesday, upgrading its outlook …

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