Inflation surge could see super-sized interest rate hike in June, economists warn
2 years, 7 months ago

Inflation surge could see super-sized interest rate hike in June, economists warn

ABC  

The latest official inflation figures are expected to be the highest since the global financial crisis, and at least one leading economist has warned they could trigger an extra large first interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank. Key points: The typical forecast is that consumer prices rose 4.6 per cent over the past year Economists expect that the inflation numbers released on Wednesday will seal the case for a June interest rate rise Westpac is forecasting that June interest rate rise will be 40 basis points, while most other forecasts are for a 15-basis-point increase The Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index for the first three months of the year comes out on Wednesday at 11:30am AEST. Westpac tips 40-basis-point rate rise If inflation comes in close to its forecast, and unemployment falls down to 3.8 per cent as Westpac expects when the April figures are released in mid-May, the bank is now expecting the Reserve Bank's first move to be an unusually large one. Loading SoundCloud content Even a financial crisis couldn't stop rate rises in 2008 Mr Evans says the Reserve Bank will tread carefully because Australia's current level of household debt makes people extremely sensitive to interest rate rises, hence Westpac's forecast of the cash rate target topping out at 2 per cent — rival CBA has an even lower forecast for the rate peak, of just 1.25 per cent. However, he also told RN Breakfast that the Reserve Bank is very committed to its 2-3 per cent inflation target, as demonstrated the last time price rises threatened to get out of control in 2007-08.

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