2018's blue wave must be as big as what followed Nixon's 1974 resignation to retake House
SalonOn the eve of the Supreme Court hearing its second major gerrymandering case this term — a Democratic power play in Maryland to grab a House seat — new research on Republican extreme gerrymanders in swing states is underscoring that a blue turnout wave in November must be a political tsunami in order to retake the House majority. The analysis summarized what's needed in four states: • In Michigan, even if Democrats win five seats with 38.38 percent of the statewide vote, they are not projected to compete for a sixth seat until their statewide vote share reaches 54.89 percent, an increase of 16.51 percentage points. • In Ohio, even if Democrats win four seats with around 26.07 percent of the statewide vote, they are not projected to compete for a fifth seat until their statewide vote share reaches 54.71 percent, an increase of 28.64 percentage points. In 2006’s midterm election, Democrats gained 31 seats when they won the national popular vote in House races by 5.4 percent, the report said. In last November’s Virginia House of Delegates races, its lower state legislative chamber, the Democrats had a 9.5 percent statewide popular vote advantage.
History of this topic
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