Extra billions flowing into budget but real wages not tipped to grow for another year
1 year, 7 months ago

Extra billions flowing into budget but real wages not tipped to grow for another year

ABC  

Workers will have to wait another year before their wages outstrip the rising cost of living, according to Treasury forecasts to be released next week. Key points: Unemployment will be 3.5 per cent this year, rising to 4.25 per cent in June 2024 Higher commodity prices will also add extra billions to the budget's bottom line The greater revenue has the government expected to release a budget surplus Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his second budget on Tuesday, in which Treasury will predict an earlier-than-expected end to falling real wages. The budget will show the lower-than-expected unemployment rate and soaring commodity prices have offered tens of billions in extra dollars to the federal government's bottom line. The October budget forecasted unemployment would have reached 4.5 per cent by June next year. "The substantial improvement in the budget is not just about higher commodity prices, it’s also about lower unemployment and the beginning of wages growth," Mr Chalmers said.

Labor Growth Budget Unemployment Treasury Cent Expected Grow Wage Growth Mr Chalmers Wages Real  treasury  tipped  rate  grow  growth  budget  wage  prices  chalmers  unemployment  extra  wages  real  cent  flowing  expected  billions

History of this topic

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
1 week, 5 days ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households

ABC  

There won't be protest marches in the streets when the Reserve Bank of Australia makes its next decision on interest rates. In the lead-up to Wednesday's inflation reading for the June quarter, there was speculation that if it came in hot, above 4 per cent, a rate rise would be on the cards. In the end, the "headline" annual rate …

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens
8 months, 1 week ago

Relief for Brits as wages outstrip inflation by biggest margin since 2021 despite signs jobs market is weakening… but inactivity crisis deepens

Daily Mail  

Brits have been offered some much-needed relief as figures showed wages outstripping inflation by the biggest margin in two and a half years. Regular pay rose by 2.1 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the three months to February. The Office for National Statistics said the jobless rate jumped to 4.2 per cent in the three months to February …

Inflation further cools in Australia as confidence of ‘soft landing’ grows
10 months, 3 weeks ago

Inflation further cools in Australia as confidence of ‘soft landing’ grows

Associated Press  

SYDNEY — Inflation in Australia has slowed to its lowest rate in three years, the country’s official statistics agency said Wednesday, raising hopes of a “soft landing” for the nation’s economy. While the CPI is still above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2-3%, the bigger than expected slowdown will raise mortgage holders’ hopes that relief on interest …

Federal Reserve On Cusp Of What Some Thought Impossible: Defeating Inflation Without Steep Recession
1 year ago

Federal Reserve On Cusp Of What Some Thought Impossible: Defeating Inflation Without Steep Recession

Huff Post  

In this photo made with a slow shutter speed, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023, in Washington. “I think it’s really good to see the progress that we’re making,” Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference Wednesday after the Fed's …

Federal budget summary: JobSeeker and welfare payments increased as living costs bite
1 year, 7 months ago

Federal budget summary: JobSeeker and welfare payments increased as living costs bite

ABC  

A modest increase in unemployment benefits and cheaper health care are the centrepieces of a federal budget tasked with helping the nation's most vulnerable as living costs continue to hurt households. Key points: The rates for JobSeeker, rent assistance and the single-parent payment have increased in the budget Labor's second budget includes a surplus this financial year, and the prospect …

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it
1 year, 10 months ago

Businesses are fuelling inflation with unnecessary price hikes — and struggling Australians are paying for it

ABC  

Higher prices, that is. The Reserve Bank summed this up in this week's Monetary Policy Decision: "Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures in a number of areas of the economy." "There's no doubt that corporations have taken advantage of the supply chain problems and the desperation of consumers …

Westpac's warning to corporate Australia highlights extent of households' financial stress
2 years ago

Westpac's warning to corporate Australia highlights extent of households' financial stress

ABC  

Actually, don't answer that. "By industry, the largest rise in wage bill in the three months to September was for accommodation and food services, up 7.7 per cent," Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O'Donaghoe said. "And on the annualised basis, accommodation and food service workers saw a whopping 40 per cent increase in average wages over the past six months. …

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises
2 years, 1 month ago

Reserve Bank of Australia rejects 'scorched earth' policy to tame inflation with faster interest rate rises

ABC  

Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Michele Bullock has said the bank wants to hang on to as much of the employment gains made during the pandemic as it can, even as it tries to cool the economy to tame inflation. Key points: RBA deputy governor says a "scorched earth" policy of rapid interest rate hikes would crush inflation quickly …

Will Australian policymakers ever want to see strong wage growth again?
2 years, 1 month ago

Will Australian policymakers ever want to see strong wage growth again?

ABC  

One of the joys of life is thinking about things in a way you're not supposed to, and that includes questioning the orthodoxy. It also contained some comments from Mr Jericho about Australia's "inflation-targeting" regime that has been in place since 1993. Who does inflation targeting really serve? "Inflation targeting in Australia since 1993 has not been neutral," Mr Jericho …

Australians in for tough financial times as federal budget forecasts declining real wages and high living costs
2 years, 1 month ago

Australians in for tough financial times as federal budget forecasts declining real wages and high living costs

ABC  

Australians are facing a bleak couple of years, with Treasury forecasting dual woes of sustained high living costs and declining real wages. Key points: Labor's election commitments are the centrepiece of its first budget in almost a decade Soaring living costs, low unemployment and high commodity prices have slashed debt and deficit forecasts Treasurer Jim Chalmers is forecasting tougher days …

Can we afford real wage cuts and soaring rate hikes as households struggle to balance budgets?
2 years, 4 months ago

Can we afford real wage cuts and soaring rate hikes as households struggle to balance budgets?

ABC  

You'd think we'd get better at predicting the future. Only 14 per cent of private sector workers received a pay rise in the June quarter. Those private sector workers, who did get a pay rise in the June quarter scored — on average — a 3.8 per cent pay jump which sounds quite tidy. Sluggish wage growth — particularly when …

In New Zealand wages are growing. Will Australian workers' pay packets get a bump?
2 years, 4 months ago

In New Zealand wages are growing. Will Australian workers' pay packets get a bump?

ABC  

The cost of living is soaring. Key points: Without high wage growth, inflation means workers' living standards will decline Wage growth has been low for a decade Wages in New Zealand are rising to meet inflation So are wage rises coming? The Reserve Bank of Australia see wages rising about 3.5 per cent next year, but that's a significant pay …

US job growth surges, cooling recession fears
2 years, 4 months ago

US job growth surges, cooling recession fears

Al Jazeera  

The United States unemployment rate is at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent, data showed on Friday. US employers added more than double the number of jobs forecast, illustrating rock-solid labor demand that tempers recession fears and suggests the Federal Reserve will press on with steep interest-rate hikes to thwart inflation. Nonfarm payrolls jumped 528,000 in July, a broad advance …

Australia's inflation figures are clear, but when it comes to official wages data, we might be flying blind
2 years, 4 months ago

Australia's inflation figures are clear, but when it comes to official wages data, we might be flying blind

ABC  

There's a bizarre lack of clarity over a particularly crucial economic data point that affects every Australian. Forecasting a peak in inflation to 7.75 per cent by the year's end, the Treasurer says Australians must brace to take some "tough medicine" if the nation is to escape a recession. That is, NAB's analysis has found wage growth increased 2.5 per …

Wages growth edges up, but still a long way short of the rising cost of living
2 years, 7 months ago

Wages growth edges up, but still a long way short of the rising cost of living

ABC  

Australian workers saw their base wages rise an average of 0.7 per cent over the March quarter and 2.4 per cent over the past year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Key points: Annual wages growth has fallen short of economist forecasts, at only 2.4 per cent Private sector wages growth again exceeded the public sector Wages growth was …

Will lifting the minimum wage worsen inflation and raise interest rates?
2 years, 7 months ago

Will lifting the minimum wage worsen inflation and raise interest rates?

ABC  

Wages have become the latest battleground in the election, with debate raging about how much extra workers can get paid without sending businesses broke and consumer prices soaring. Key points: The Fair Work Commission is due to hand down its annual minimum wage decision in June Unions say 5.5 per cent is a fair increase while employer groups want no …

MYEFO is forecasting a long-awaited rise in wages, but it doesn't mean it will happen
3 years ago

MYEFO is forecasting a long-awaited rise in wages, but it doesn't mean it will happen

ABC  

As New York Yankees catcher and amateur philosopher Yogi Berra once noted: "It's tough making predictions, especially about the future." Almost two years on from that fateful night — which preceded a global pandemic, the worst recession in nearly a century and a $311 billion Commonwealth stimulus package — there is still no surplus in sight, with ongoing deficits adding …

US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years
3 years ago

US economists see higher wages feeding inflation for 3 years

Al Jazeera  

A new survey shows nearly three-quarters of US economists don’t see inflation falling to the Fed’s target 2-percent rate until the second half of 2023 or later. Nearly three quarters – 71 percent – of the 48 economists surveyed see the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge – Personal Consumption Expenditures minus food and energy – not falling to or below …

If we stop using the unemployed to control inflation, will we all be better off?
3 years, 5 months ago

If we stop using the unemployed to control inflation, will we all be better off?

ABC  

I want to try something a little unusual. We need genuine full employment Photo shows Jim Stanford, director of the Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work Treasurer Josh Frydenberg wants the unemployment rate to fall below 5 per cent, but one economist says that still won't be enough, writes Gareth Hutchens. It's different to the system we have today Today's …

Superannuation rises could come at the cost of wages — workers may end up paying for their own super rise
3 years, 6 months ago

Superannuation rises could come at the cost of wages — workers may end up paying for their own super rise

ABC  

Workers expecting a big jump in their superannuation payments could get a shock on July 1. Key points: The superannuation guarantee is the proportion of wages employers must contribute to workers' retirement savings It's set to rise from 9.5 per cent to 10 per cent from July 1 But employment lawyers and others are warning some bosses may make workers …

The federal budget's forecasts have relied on dodgy assumptions for years
3 years, 7 months ago

The federal budget's forecasts have relied on dodgy assumptions for years

ABC  

The federal government will release its budget this week. However, when you thumb through past budget papers, you'll notice Treasury officials have consistently been assuming that annual wages growth will rise to 3.5 per cent "in a few years". These were Mr Frydenberg's forecasts for the unemployment rate, in his 2019-20 budget: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was expecting the unemployment rate …

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future
3 years, 8 months ago

The COVID-19 pandemic helped unemployment figures, but spare capacity clouds Australia's future

ABC  

When it comes to jobs, Australia's recovery after the economic shock of the national, pandemic-driven lockdown has been nothing short of astonishing, at least if you check the headline numbers. In February, the unemployment rate dived to 5.8 per cent, way below the 6.3 per cent jobless rate in January, a performance that stunned pundits and professional economic soothsayers alike. …

Why you should do your bit to help the Australian economy recover and demand a pay rise
3 years, 10 months ago

Why you should do your bit to help the Australian economy recover and demand a pay rise

ABC  

If you really want to do something patriotic this year, if your fervent wish is to help our economy recover from the debilitating impact of the pandemic, you have the power to do something. Economists argue that higher wages for workers across industry would result in more spending that eventually would lead to bigger profits. Low inflation, excess capacity, burgeoning …

Superannuation cannot rise without stalling wage growth, RBA documents reveal
3 years, 11 months ago

Superannuation cannot rise without stalling wage growth, RBA documents reveal

ABC  

Australia's superannuation rate is legislated to rise but it could cost workers an increase in wages. Key points: Superannuation is legislated to increase to 10 per cent on July 1 FOI documents from inside the Reserve Bank of Australia show it believes a rise in superannuation will cost wages The view is based on the work of one think tank, …

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