‘Inflation likely to be over 7% till September’
2 years, 8 months ago

‘Inflation likely to be over 7% till September’

The Hindu  

After spiking to 6.95% in March, India’s retail inflation is likely to cross 7% and stay above that mark till September, SBI economists wrote in a report on Wednesday, raising their inflation forecast for 2022-23 to 6.5% from 5.8%, citing the possibility of an ‘extended’ food price shock. Even after September, consumer inflation is expected to moderate only slightly to 6.5%-7%, SBI group chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh said, adding that the first half of the year likely to see inflation above 7%, and the latter half clocking about 6.5%. The full effect of fuel price hikes implemented through the latter half of March is yet to reflect in the inflation data and 80% of the jump in March price trends was attributable to the food segment, DBS Group Research pointed out in a note. If our forecast holds up, inflation is at the risk of breaching the upper end of the 2-6% target for three consecutive quarters, testing the policymakers’ legislative mandate,” DBS group senior economist Radhika Rao wrote in a note co-authored with senior rates strategist Eugene Leow and senior FX strategist Philip Wee.

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