Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise of our forecast is that job growth will recover in August and the FOMC will judge 25bp cuts a sufficient response to any downside risks,” the Goldman Sachs economists said. “If we are wrong and the August employment report is as weak as the July report, than a 50bp cut would be likely in September.” The economists added that they are skeptical the labor market is at risk of deteriorating rapidly in part because job openings indicate demand remains solid and there has been no obvious shock to spark a downturn.

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History of this topic

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops
2 months, 2 weeks ago

U.S. job growth outperforms expectations as hiring resurges and unemployment drops

LA Times  

A hiring sign is displayed at a grocery store in Deerfield, Ill. “The report doesn’t single-handedly change the landscape for the economic outlook, but it does provide reassurance that there’s still plenty of life in the jobs market,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors, a major accounting firm based in the Detroit area. The strong …

Goldman Sachs cuts India’s 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts
3 months, 4 weeks ago

Goldman Sachs cuts India’s 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has lowered India’s growth forecast by 20 basis points each for this year and the next, citing a contraction in central government expenditure. India’s growth next year will be hampered by the government’s commitment in the budget to bring down the fiscal deficit to below 4.5% of gross domestic product. Expansion will also face headwinds from …

Mint Quick Edit | Goldman Sach’s outlook changes highlight global uncertainty
4 months ago

Mint Quick Edit | Goldman Sach’s outlook changes highlight global uncertainty

Live Mint  

It’s a sign of the uncertainty looming over the global economy that economists are altering expectations so frequently. Take Goldman Sachs, which has just scaled back the odds of a US recession to 20% from 25% forecast a fortnight or so ago. That prediction had marked a spike from the 15% probability it had held until a weaker-than-expected July US …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets

ABC  

There are genuine concerns the world's largest economy is heading toward a recession, and the fear is gripping global financial markets. "Shares went sky high into July on the back of better news on inflation, increasing optimism about lower interest rates ahead and optimism about IT and AI-related earnings," Mr Oliver, who manages $3 billion in investments, said. The US …

US stock market may fall 10% soon, Morgan Stanley’s top strategist warns
5 months, 2 weeks ago

US stock market may fall 10% soon, Morgan Stanley’s top strategist warns

Hindustan Times  

The US stock market is likely to witness a correction soon owing to US presidential elections, corporate earnings, and Federal Reserve policy on rate cuts, Morgan Stanley’s top strategist Mike Wilson said. He predicted, “I think the chance of a 10% correction is highly likely sometime between now and the election.” Wall Street traders sent stocks toward fresh all-time highs …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
1 year ago

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not

Live Mint  

Wall Street is gearing up for rate cuts. “You’re really talking about a distribution of outcomes that range between the Fed doing nothing next year to the Fed cutting aggressively next year,” said Rob Waldner, fixed income chief strategist at Invesco. Investors caution that it is still possible that the Fed doesn’t cut rates in 2024, potentially pushing bond yields …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 2 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

US labor market added 336,000 jobs in September - DOUBLE analysts' predictions - sending markets plunging as investors fear more Fed rate hikes for overheated economy
1 year, 2 months ago

US labor market added 336,000 jobs in September - DOUBLE analysts' predictions - sending markets plunging as investors fear more Fed rate hikes for overheated economy

Daily Mail  

Despite the job gains, wage growth was down and unemployment steady September's labor report showed a sharp uptick in new jobs, heating up the Fed's battle to curb inflation. The US economy added 336,000 jobs last month, nearly twice economists' expectations of 170,000, and the largest jump since January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Following Friday's report, markets …

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'
1 year, 2 months ago

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'

Daily Mail  

The boss of JPMorgan has warned that the worst of the interest rate pain may still be ahead for businesses and families already scarred by an historic round of hikes. JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon said that the Fed was forced to hold on another hike at its latest meeting because the effect of a jump to 5 to 7 percent …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 5 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 7 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
1 year, 9 months ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
1 year, 11 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy
1 year, 11 months ago

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — the United States, Europe and China — the World Bank warned on Tuesday. Though the United States might avoid a recession this year — the World Bank predicts the U.S. economy will eke out growth …

The U.S. job market is still healthy, but it's slowing down as recession fears mount
1 year, 11 months ago

The U.S. job market is still healthy, but it's slowing down as recession fears mount

NPR  

The U.S. job market is still healthy, but it's slowing down as recession fears mount Enlarge this image toggle caption Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images The U.S. job market closed out 2022 on a high note. Employers added 223,000 jobs in December, capping a year in which the economy added 4.5 million jobs, more than refilling the deep hole …

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high
2 years ago

US recession a growing fear as Fed plans to keep rates high

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — After scaling 40-year highs, inflation in the United States has been slowly easing since summer. We’re going to break inflation or we’re going to break the economy.’’ Many investors had convinced themselves that with inflation pressures gradually easing, the Fed might soon declare some progress in their fight and perhaps even reverse course and cut rates sometime in …

Investors overseeing $5 trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report
2 years ago

Investors overseeing $5 trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report

Hindustan Times  

Professional investors are loading up on bets that an economic recession can be avoided despite all the warnings to the contrary. Investors overseeing $5 Trillion bet economic recession can be avoided: Report Money managers have been favoring economically sensitive equities, such as industrial companies and commodity producers, according to a study from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on positioning by mutual …

Global stocks to grind higher, lacklustre year ahead
2 years ago

Global stocks to grind higher, lacklustre year ahead

Live Mint  

The global economy needs to find a more solid footing before most stock markets to break out of their torpor, according to market strategists polled by Reuters who have broadly cut their 2023 forecasts compared with three months ago. Much will depend on how much longer central banks persist with their current mantra that interest rates, while perhaps rising in …

Stocks lose more ground on fears a recession may be looming
2 years, 2 months ago

Stocks lose more ground on fears a recession may be looming

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Good news on the economy remains bad news for Wall Street, as stocks fell sharply Friday on worries a still-strong U.S jobs market may actually make a recession more likely. “The Fed thinks we need more people unemployed in order to make sure inflation comes down and stays down.” Stocks have tumbled over 20% from records this …

If a Recession is Indeed Coming, Investing in These Stocks Could be a Safer Bet
2 years, 2 months ago

If a Recession is Indeed Coming, Investing in These Stocks Could be a Safer Bet

News 18  

The world economy has officially hit a recessionary phase. Even economist Nouriel Roubini, a noted economist who was at the forefront of accurately predicting the trajectory of the 2008 recession, foresees a lengthy and ugly recession that could last well until late next year. While India is not entirely immune to the globally looming recession, it might just stand out …

US Federal Reserve raises key interest rate as recession fears mount
2 years, 3 months ago

US Federal Reserve raises key interest rate as recession fears mount

New Indian Express  

It was the third consecutive increase of 0.75 percentage point by the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, continuing the forceful action to tamp down inflation that has surged to the highest in 40 years. Soaring prices are putting the squeeze on American families and businesses and have become a political liability for President Joe Biden, as he faces midterm …

How CFOs are preparing for a potential economic downturn
2 years, 4 months ago

How CFOs are preparing for a potential economic downturn

Live Mint  

Chief financial officers have said in recent weeks that they have limited visibility into where the economy is headed, as the job market remains strong despite record inflation and rising interest rates. Walmart Inc., the country’s largest retailer, is one of many companies that have recently cut their profit forecasts, warning that higher prices are causing customers to pull back …

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter
2 years, 4 months ago

United States recession fears grow as economy contracts for second quarter

ABC  

The United States economy has unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining, raising speculation the economy is on the cusp of a recession. Key points: Prices for groceries, petrol and other basics increased at the fastest pace since 1981 Job growth averaged 456,700 per month in …

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
2 years, 4 months ago

US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession. “The fact that the economy created 2.7 million payrolls in the first half of the year would seem to argue against an official recession call for now.” Still, …

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed
2 years, 4 months ago

US not yet in recession and 4 other takeaways from the Fed

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Jerome Powell delivered a tough message at the start of a news conference Wednesday: Inflation is way too high, and the Federal Reserve is laser-focused on taming it with higher borrowing costs. With the Fed’s benchmark interest rate now at a level that’s believed to neither stimulate nor restrain growth, Powell said the pace of rate hikes could …

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report
2 years, 4 months ago

40 Per Cent Chance Of Recession In US, Other Key Economies Face High Risk: Report

ABP News  

A latest poll of economists have hinted that the global economy is facing serious threats of a slowdown with some key economies at high risk of recession. The US inflation which is at a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent, is not expected to cool to the Fed's 2 per cent target until at least 2024. According to the Reuters …

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom
2 years, 4 months ago

Yellen downplays US recession risk as economic reports loom

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said the U.S. economy is slowing but pointed to healthy hiring as proof that it is not yet in recession. Yellen spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” just before a slew of economic reports will be released this week that will shed light on an economy currently besieged by rampant inflation and …

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Canadian bank expects short-lived recession in 2023

Associated Press  

TORONTO — A report issued Thursday by the Royal Bank of Canada says the country is headed towards a recession in 2023, but it will be short-lived and not as severe as prior downturns. RBC economists said that soaring food and energy prices, rising interest rates and ongoing labor shortages will push the economy into a “moderate contraction″ next year. …

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023
2 years, 5 months ago

Nomura Says Many Major Economies Will Hit Recession In 2023

News 18  

A report by Nomura Holdings Inc revealed many major economies will enter recessions over the next 12 months. Nomura said the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US will fall into recession in the research note published by Rob Subbaraman and Si Ying Toh. In the US, Nomura predicted a shallow recession but a long one …

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost
2 years, 5 months ago

What is a recession? When is the next one going to begin? – Firstpost

Firstpost  

According to America’s National Bureau of Economic Research, a recession is ‘a significant decline in economic activity’ that is widespread and lasts several months. That means not only shrinking GDP but also declining incomes, employment, industrial production and retail sales Chaotic stock markets, sky-high interest rates and the pain of inflation have left one question at the top of Americans’ …

Economists See Up To 40% Chance of US Recession Within A Year; Check Details
2 years, 6 months ago

Economists See Up To 40% Chance of US Recession Within A Year; Check Details

News 18  

Goldman Sachs economists have now revised upward the chances of entering a recession in the next one year. It had earlier planned a 50-bps hike for the June meeting but the US consumer inflation came higher than expected in May, at a four-decade high of 8.6 per cent. According to the latest data, consumer price inflation in the US increased …

Race for relevance: The Hindu Editorial on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s steepest interest rate increase in more than 27 years
2 years, 6 months ago

Race for relevance: The Hindu Editorial on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s steepest interest rate increase in more than 27 years

The Hindu  

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday implemented its steepest interest rate increase in more than 27 years as it fights to rein in runaway inflation. Acknowledging that inflation had ‘surprised to the upside’ since the Federal Open Market Committee had last met in May, he said the committee agreed that the larger increase was required to anchor inflation expectations. Even …

Wall Street slammed as recession worries mount; S&P 500 sinks 3%
2 years, 6 months ago

Wall Street slammed as recession worries mount; S&P 500 sinks 3%

Live Mint  

US stock tumbled on Thursday, with growth shares bearing the brunt of the selloff, after the Federal Reserve's largest rate increase in nearly 30 years to combat decades-high inflation fanned worries of a recession. Declaring that it’s essential to tame inflation, Jerome Powell engineered the biggest rate increase since 1994 Wednesday and held out the distinct possibility of another jumbo …

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?
2 years, 6 months ago

EXPLAINER: Just how high is the risk of another recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Inflation is at a 40-year high. That said, Farooqi cautioned, “the economy faces headwinds.” Among the signs that recession risks are rising: High inflation has proved far more entrenched and persistent than many economists — and the Fed — had expected: Consumer prices rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, the biggest annual 12-month jump since 1981. …

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?
2 years, 7 months ago

What is a recession, and how scared should we be?

CNN  

New York CNN Business — Around the world, warning signs of a recession are flashing. “We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists warned last month, staking out the more bearish position on Wall Street. Bank of America, in the still-grim-but-less-dire camp, said the mood in financial markets has been “recessionary.” Goldman Sachs is among the more optimistic of …

Recession risk is rising, economists say
2 years, 8 months ago

Recession risk is rising, economists say

Live Mint  

Economists see a growing risk of recession as the relentlessly strong U.S. economy whips up inflation, likely bringing a heavy-handed response from the Federal Reserve. “Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. On …

2022 will mark the end of the pandemic and a full economic recovery, JPMorgan says
3 years ago

2022 will mark the end of the pandemic and a full economic recovery, JPMorgan says

CNN  

CNN — After nearly two full years of Covid-driven chaos, JPMorgan Chase is predicting 2022 will usher in a return to normalcy and a full healing of the economic wounds caused by the health crisis. “Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic and a return to normal …

Goldman Sachs predicts faster economic recovery after Democrats sweep Georgia
3 years, 11 months ago

Goldman Sachs predicts faster economic recovery after Democrats sweep Georgia

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The surprise sweep by Democrats in Georgia should pave the way for a faster economic recovery from the pandemic, says Goldman Sachs. “Democrats are likely to pass further fiscal stimulus in Q1,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a client note. “With the likelihood of further fiscal expansion, this gives us greater confidence that the recovery …

Fed keeps rate near zero and sees brighter economy in 2021
4 years ago

Fed keeps rate near zero and sees brighter economy in 2021

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it will keep buying government bonds until the economy makes “substantial” progress, a step intended to reassure financial markets and keep long-term borrowing rates low indefinitely. Chair Jerome Powell said he and other Fed officials expect the economy to rebound at a healthy pace next year as viral vaccines become widely distributed. …

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