Lions’ Dan Campbell made bad decisions during NFC title game, but not the ones you think
New York TimesSunday night’s NFC Championship Game saw a historic comeback by the San Francisco 49ers as they rallied from a 17-point deficit against the Detroit Lions to punch their ticket to Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58 and a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs. GO DEEPER Dan Campbell: 'I don't regret' fourth-down decisions However, let’s quickly discuss the two decisions under the most intense scrutiny: first, his choice to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the 49ers’ 28-yard line with 7:03 left in the third quarter with the Lions leading 24-10. The first was the decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-3 from the 49ers’ 3-yard line with seven seconds left in the second quarter with the Lions leading 21-7. Here’s what I found: 2024 NFL playoffs: Fourth down analysis Team Coach Fourth downs decisions Correct Incorrect Neutral Correct% Win probability added ▼ Go-for-it WPA Kick/punt WPA Chiefs Andy Reid 18 11 2 5 84.6% 29.8% 6.6% 23.2% Bills Sean McDermott 12 6 0 6 100.0% 25.8% 13.1% 12.7% Buccaneers Todd Bowles 13 8 3 2 72.7% 20.1% 2.4% 17.7% Lions Dan Campbell 18 11 4 3 73.3% 17.7% 19.3% -1.6% Ravens John Harbaugh 14 9 2 3 81.8% 17.2% 6.6% 10.6% Dolphins Mike McDaniel 6 2 0 4 100.0% 10.5% 6.8% 3.7% Packers Matt LaFleur 6 4 1 1 80.0% 9.8% 1.6% 8.2% Browns Kevin Stefanski 5 3 1 1 75.0% 8.1% 1.3% 6.8% Texans DeMeco Ryans 10 5 3 2 62.5% 8.0% 0.0% 8.0% 49ers Kyle Shanahan 10 2 2 6 50.0% 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% Rams Sean McVay 6 3 0 3 100.0% 5.2% 1.3% 3.9% Cowboys Mike McCarthy 3 2 1 0 66.7% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% Steelers Mike Tomlin 4 1 0 3 100.0% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% Eagles Nick Sirianni 7 1 2 4 33.3% 0.8% 0.20% 0.6% Best fourth-down decisions to go 1. Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams: fourth-and-4 on the Detroit 31-yard line, leading 24-23 with 7:18 left in the fourth quarter.
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