OECD forecast: High rates, inflation to slow world growth
2 years, 1 month ago

OECD forecast: High rates, inflation to slow world growth

Associated Press  

Hobbled by high interest rates, punishing inflation and Russia’s war against Ukraine, the world economy is expected to eke out only modest growth this year and to expand even more tepidly in 2023. Inflation — largely fueled by high energy prices — “has become broad-based and persistent,” Cormann said, while “real household incomes across many countries have weakened despite support measures that many governments have been rolling out.” In its latest forecast, OECD predicts that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to tame inflation with higher interest rates — it’s raised its benchmark rate six times this year, in substantial increments — will grind the U.S. economy to a near-halt. Whatever growth the international economy produces next year, the OECD says, will come largely from the emerging market countries of Asia: Together, it estimates, they will account for three-quarters of world growth next year while the U.S. and European economies falter. “Financial strategies put in place during the long period of hyper-low interest rates may be exposed by rapidly rising rates and exert stress in unexpected ways,’’ the OECD said in Tuesday’s report.

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History of this topic

OECD warns central banks about rate cuts
2 weeks, 5 days ago

OECD warns central banks about rate cuts

China Daily  

FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to reporters following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany September 12, 2024. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, has forecast continued economic resilience globally despite headwinds, while warning central banks against cutting interest rates too quickly amid persistent service-sector inflation. In its latest Economic Outlook …

OECD warns central banks about rate cuts
2 weeks, 5 days ago

OECD warns central banks about rate cuts

China Daily  

FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks to reporters following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany September 12, 2024. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, has forecast continued economic resilience globally despite headwinds, while warning central banks against cutting interest rates too quickly amid persistent service-sector inflation. In its latest Economic Outlook …

UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after Budget – OECD
2 weeks, 6 days ago

UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after Budget – OECD

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy UK interest rates will fall …

World economy to accelerate in 2025, but recovery threatened by higher tariffs, OECD says
2 weeks, 6 days ago

World economy to accelerate in 2025, but recovery threatened by higher tariffs, OECD says

Live Mint  

The global economy is set to grow at slightly a faster pace next year as inflation continues to cool, but could falter if tariffs rise and governments fail to narrow wide budget deficits, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday. “Growth continues to be resilient," said Alvaro Pereira, the OECD’s chief economist, in an interview with The Wall …

IMF Warns of $100 Trillion Fiscal Timebomb, as Global Finance Chiefs Brace for Election Fallout
2 months ago

IMF Warns of $100 Trillion Fiscal Timebomb, as Global Finance Chiefs Brace for Election Fallout

Live Mint  

The article highlights the increasing concerns about global debt levels and the potential impact on the world economy. The IMF is set to release several reports and studies in the coming weeks, including the Fiscal Monitor, which will provide insights into public debt and the overall health of the global economy. The article also focuses on central bank decisions in …

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Fears US economy headed towards recession spark jitters across global markets

ABC  

There are genuine concerns the world's largest economy is heading toward a recession, and the fear is gripping global financial markets. "Shares went sky high into July on the back of better news on inflation, increasing optimism about lower interest rates ahead and optimism about IT and AI-related earnings," Mr Oliver, who manages $3 billion in investments, said. The US …

Inflation ticks up in Europe, complicating the European Central Bank's next move
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Inflation ticks up in Europe, complicating the European Central Bank's next move

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Inflation in the 20 countries …

'Risk of major financial fallout' as IMF sounds the alarm on persistent global inflation
5 months, 1 week ago

'Risk of major financial fallout' as IMF sounds the alarm on persistent global inflation

ABC  

The message seems to have been lost in all the noise. The biggest risk is that higher American interest rates "disrupt capital flows and impede planned monetary policy easing, which could adversely impact growth". Even worse, "persistently high interest rates could raise borrowing costs further and affect financial stability if fiscal improvements do not offset higher real rates amid lower …

Interest rate cuts under threat from ‘stubbornly high inflation’
5 months, 1 week ago

Interest rate cuts under threat from ‘stubbornly high inflation’

The Telegraph  

Interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and Federal Reserve are at risk of being derailed by stubbornly high inflation, the International Monetary Fund has warned. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, warned that underlying inflation remained “persistent”, with global growth likely to suffer if the US keeps borrowing costs at their highest level since 2001. Speaking at …

US Employment Seen Moderating Along With Wage Growth
5 months, 3 weeks ago

US Employment Seen Moderating Along With Wage Growth

Live Mint  

-- US employers probably tempered their hiring while wage growth moderated in June, another favorable development for Jerome Powell and his Federal Reserve colleagues seeking more confirmation that inflation is slowing. Among central banks, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting will draw a lot of attention on Tuesday after Governor Michele Bullock said the board considered a …

Inflation eases in May, but major relief on interest rates not coming soon
6 months, 1 week ago

Inflation eases in May, but major relief on interest rates not coming soon

LA Times  

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell and his colleagues at the central bank have kept interest rates at a more than 20-year high to fight inflation. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level in more than two decades to fight inflation, and on Wednesday policymakers said the fight wasn’t over. “But we don’t see ourselves as …

World Bank boosts forecast: Strength of US economy will support global growth of 2.6% this year
6 months, 1 week ago

World Bank boosts forecast: Strength of US economy will support global growth of 2.6% this year

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The World Bank upgraded its outlook for the global economy Tuesday, estimating that it will expand 2.6% this year on the strength of sustained growth in the United States. Stronger-than-expected growth in the United States — the world’s biggest economy — accounted for 80% of the World Bank’s upgraded outlook. But even after the World Bank’s upgrade, global …

UK inflation lowest in 3 years. Prime Minister Sunak makes it a focus in election call for July 4
7 months ago

UK inflation lowest in 3 years. Prime Minister Sunak makes it a focus in election call for July 4

Associated Press  

LONDON — Inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to its lowest level in nearly three years in April on the back of big declines in domestic bills, official figures showed Wednesday. “While it’s clearly good news headline inflation is back to normal levels, it is disappointing that price pressures haven’t fallen further and that measures of services inflation are proving …

US economy to outpace G7 peers with double GDP growth rate this year, claims IMF
8 months, 1 week ago

US economy to outpace G7 peers with double GDP growth rate this year, claims IMF

Hindustan Times  

US has a 2x rate of GDP growth relative to any other G7 country this year, as per International Monetary Fund projections, while its economy gains the upper hand globally, creating wild market swings by itself. International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas holds the IMF's World Economic Outlook during a press briefing at the IMF-World Bank Group spring meetings …

IMF: Outlook for world economy is brighter, though still modest by historical standards
8 months, 1 week ago

IMF: Outlook for world economy is brighter, though still modest by historical standards

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its outlook for the global economy this year, saying the world appears headed for a “soft landing” — reining in inflation without much economic pain and producing steady if modest growth. In its latest outlook, the IMF, a 190-country lending organization, notes that the global expansion is being powered by unexpectedly strong …

UK economy went into shallow recession in 2023: Official data
8 months, 3 weeks ago

UK economy went into shallow recession in 2023: Official data

Live Mint  

Britain's economy entered a shallow recession last year, official figures confirmed on Thursday, leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year. "The weak starting point for GDP this year means calendar-year growth in 2024 is likely to be limited to less than 1%," …

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024
9 months, 4 weeks ago

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel. Professional …

Recession has struck some of world’s top economies; US keeps defying expectations
10 months, 1 week ago

Recession has struck some of world’s top economies; US keeps defying expectations

New Indian Express  

Several unique characteristics of the US economy have sheltered it from recessionary storms, analysts say. The US government provided about $5 trillion in pandemic aid in 2020-2021, far more than overseas counterparts, which left most households in much better financial shape and supported consumer spending well into 2023. “But also the structure of our economy is so much different.” Americans …

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election
10 months, 1 week ago

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, as output shrank more than anticipated in the final three months of the year, official figures showed Thursday. The quarterly decline followed a 0.1% fall in the previous three-month period and highlights how the economy has …

OECD ups world growth forecast but sees Middle East 'risk'
10 months, 2 weeks ago

OECD ups world growth forecast but sees Middle East 'risk'

New Indian Express  

PARIS: The OECD raised its 2024 world economic growth forecast Monday but warned that the Middle East conflict posed a risk, with disruptions in Red Sea shipping threatening to increase consumer prices. The OECD now expects a 2.9 percent expansion, up from 2.7 percent in its previous forecast in November, as it sharply lifted the outlook for the United States, …

Economic growth continues, as latest GDP data shows strong 3.3% pace last quarter
10 months, 4 weeks ago

Economic growth continues, as latest GDP data shows strong 3.3% pace last quarter

CBS News  

The nation's economy grew at an unexpectedly brisk 3.3% annual pace from October through December as Americans showed a continued willingness to spend freely despite high interest rates and price levels that have frustrated many households. Thursday's report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product — the economy's total output of goods and services — decelerated from its …

Interest rates to keep falling but last mile 'very very tricky', says IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva
11 months ago

Interest rates to keep falling but last mile 'very very tricky', says IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva

India TV News  

IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that interest rates are expected to continue falling in 2024, but she cautioned that the last stage is "very, very tricky" and there is no room for policy errors. During an interview at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2024 in Davos, she emphasised that central banks should avoid premature tightening, as they …

Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Global economy will slow for a third straight year in 2024, World Bank predicts

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Hobbled by high interest rates, persistent inflation, slumping trade and a diminished China, the global economy will slow for a third consecutive year in 2024. “Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries — especially the poorest — stuck in a trap: with paralyzing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of …

Inflation eased in 2023. That’s giving investors hope for a gentler Federal Reserve next year
1 year ago

Inflation eased in 2023. That’s giving investors hope for a gentler Federal Reserve next year

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and solid gains for the market next year. Stocks rallied to their best month of the year in November as investors raised their bets that the Fed is done hiking interest rates to fight inflation. That means …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says
1 year ago

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and heightened uncertainty,″ the OECD said. The world economy has endured one shock …

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says
1 year ago

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says
1 year ago

The world economy will slow next year because of inflation, high rates and war, OECD says

LA Times  

A crane lifts a shipping container at an automated container port in Tianjin, China. The global economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient this year, is expected to falter next year under the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation and continued high interest rates. China’s “consumption growth will likely remain subdued due to increased precautionary savings, gloomier prospects for employment creation and …

The worst-performing major economy also faces a budget crisis. Germany’s leader vows fixes, but how?
1 year ago

The worst-performing major economy also faces a budget crisis. Germany’s leader vows fixes, but how?

Associated Press  

FRANKFURT, Germany — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed Tuesday that his government will work “as fast as possible” to solve a budget crisis, but he offered few details on how he would achieve his goals of promoting clean energy and modernizing the struggling economy after a court decision struck down billions in planned spending. Scholz and his quarrelsome governing coalition …

Economy has lost momentum during a tough year, EU commission says and warns of risk from Mideast
1 year, 1 month ago

Economy has lost momentum during a tough year, EU commission says and warns of risk from Mideast

Associated Press  

FRANKFURT, Germany — The European Union’s executive commission lowered growth its expectations for this year and next, saying the economy “has lost momentum” as inflation discourages consumers and higher interest rates deter borrowing for purchases and investment. it could create spillovers on energy prices.” While growth remains anemic, unemployment remains near record lows and growth should improve as inflation falls …

IMF chief says the global economy has shown resilience in the face of COVID, war and high rates
1 year, 2 months ago

IMF chief says the global economy has shown resilience in the face of COVID, war and high rates

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy has shown “remarkable resilience’’ but still bears deep scars from the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates, the head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. “While the recovery from the shocks of the past few years continues, it is slow and it is uneven,’’ IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said …

Dollar’s Resurgence Is a Headache for the Rest of the World
1 year, 2 months ago

Dollar’s Resurgence Is a Headache for the Rest of the World

Live Mint  

The dollar bounced back with a vengeance in the third quarter, threatening global central bankers’ tricky task of bringing down inflation while protecting fragile economic growth. “The markets have consistently tried to price in rosy scenarios which were associated with a weaker dollar and they continue to be surprised that the reality isn’t quite as rosy,” said Maurice Obstfeld, former …

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'
1 year, 2 months ago

JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon warns 7% interest rates would cripple the global economy as the Fed holds the line at 5.5%: 'You find out who is swimming naked when that tide goes out'

Daily Mail  

The boss of JPMorgan has warned that the worst of the interest rate pain may still be ahead for businesses and families already scarred by an historic round of hikes. JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon said that the Fed was forced to hold on another hike at its latest meeting because the effect of a jump to 5 to 7 percent …

German economy sinking in recession in 2023, predicts European Commission
1 year, 3 months ago

German economy sinking in recession in 2023, predicts European Commission

Live Mint  

Bearing the brunt of high inflation driven by factors like Russia-Ukraine crisis, German economy is expected to contract in 2023, predicted European Commission on Monday. The recent cut in forecast has come at a time when Euro's biggest economy is facing high inflation and the spill over effect of Russia-Ukraine war. Euro zone expected to grow slower, says EC The …

The world economy is still in danger
1 year, 4 months ago

The world economy is still in danger

Hindustan Times  

Economists are not known for their optimism, but today their good cheer is palpable. Other central banks were following suit, their inflation problems made worse by a surging dollar —a particular problem for the emerging markets that borrow and trade using America’s currency. Yet news that America’s headline rate of annual inflation fell to 3% in June has fed hopes …

Britain faces years of stagnation because of high interest rates, economists warn
1 year, 5 months ago

Britain faces years of stagnation because of high interest rates, economists warn

The Telegraph  

Britain is facing a prolonged economic slump caused by higher interest rates, economists have warned, with the battle against inflation set to weigh on growth for years to come. In its latest quarterly update, the group said the economy is set to grow by 0.8pc next year, less than half its previous prediction of 1.9pc. Martin Beck, chief economic adviser …

The world seems headed for a mild output contraction
1 year, 5 months ago

The world seems headed for a mild output contraction

Live Mint  

There are currently four scenarios for the global economic outlook. The most positive is a ‘soft landing,’ where central banks in advanced economies manage to bring inflation down to their 2% targets without triggering a recession. If the effort to tame inflation triggers severe economic and financial instability, a fourth scenario becomes possible: central banks wimp out and allow for …

Investors have reason to fear a strong economy
1 year, 5 months ago

Investors have reason to fear a strong economy

Live Mint  

It takes two to make a market, which inevitably sets the scene for contradictory opinions. The pain trade of 2023 would be caused by a robust economy and sustained high interest rates. Though banks’ bond portfolios would suffer, steady growth and an upward-sloping rather than inverted yield curve would boost their lending margins and help their shares recover. Without rate …

Bank may need to spark recession to control inflation, economist says
1 year, 6 months ago

Bank may need to spark recession to control inflation, economist says

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Policymakers won’t want to steer market rate expectations lower, …

US economy grew at weak 1.1% rate in Q1 in sign of slowdown
1 year, 7 months ago

US economy grew at weak 1.1% rate in Q1 in sign of slowdown

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy slowed sharply from January through March, decelerating to just a 1.1% annual pace as higher interest rates hammered the housing market and businesses reduced their inventories. The economy’s slowdown reflects the impact of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive drive to tame inflation, with nine interest rate hikes over the past year. “We continue to expect the …

Higher Interest Rates Drive U.S. Economy Slowdown To 1.1% Rate
1 year, 7 months ago

Higher Interest Rates Drive U.S. Economy Slowdown To 1.1% Rate

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy slowed sharply from January through March, decelerating to just a 1.1% annual pace as higher interest rates hammered the housing market and businesses reduced inventories. Yet the central bank’s policymakers are aiming for a so-called soft landing: Cooling growth enough to curb inflation yet not so much as to send the world’s …

IMF: Prolonged high inflation dims outlook for world economy
1 year, 8 months ago

IMF: Prolonged high inflation dims outlook for world economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The outlook for the world economy this year has dimmed in the face of chronically high inflation, rising interest rates and uncertainties resulting from the collapse of two big American banks. The fund said the possibility of a “hard landing,” in which rising interest rates weaken growth so much as to cause a recession, has ”risen sharply,” especially …

Risk of hunger, poverty higher due to slow economic growth: IMF
1 year, 8 months ago

Risk of hunger, poverty higher due to slow economic growth: IMF

Al Jazeera  

IMF head said persistently high interest rates, a series of bank failures in the US and Europe, and deepening geopolitical divisions are threatening global financial stability. Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that growth is expected to remain about 3 percent for the next five years, calling it “our lowest medium-term growth forecast since 1990”, adding that it would be a …

OECD raises 2023 global GDP growth forecast to 2.6%
1 year, 9 months ago

OECD raises 2023 global GDP growth forecast to 2.6%

The Hindu  

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its global economic growth forecast on Friday as inflation eases and China emerges from COVID restrictions, but warned of vulnerabilities as seen in the US bank sector turmoil. But it remains under the 3.2% expansion seen in 2022, the Paris-based OECD said in its updated economic outlook titled “A Fragile Recovery”. 🔴 …

Inflation and recession: Can the world defeat both in 2023?
1 year, 10 months ago

Inflation and recession: Can the world defeat both in 2023?

Al Jazeera  

No, says conventional wisdom. The IMF, World Bank and many other experts have pointed to one key factor pushing the economy towards a recession: sharp interest rate hikes by central banks in recent months to tame soaring inflation. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic that crushed the global economy because of lockdowns and supply chain bottlenecks, central banks around the world cut …

Europe scrapes out economic growth by dodging gas disaster
1 year, 10 months ago

Europe scrapes out economic growth by dodging gas disaster

Associated Press  

FRANKFURT, Germany — Europe’s economy scraped out meager gains at the end of last year as galloping inflation fed by high energy prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deterred people from spending in shops and restaurants. He added that “the positive reading could mask underlying weakness in domestic demand” and that “private consumption is likely to have contracted.” “The main …

IMF upgrades outlook for the global economy in 2023
1 year, 10 months ago

IMF upgrades outlook for the global economy in 2023

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The outlook for the global economy is growing slightly brighter as China eases its zero-COVID policies and the world shows surprising resilience in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. The IMF said China’s “recent reopening has paved the way for a faster-than-expected recovery.’’ The IMF now expects China’s economy — …

Davos 2023 | Global recession seen likely in 2023: WEF survey
1 year, 11 months ago

Davos 2023 | Global recession seen likely in 2023: WEF survey

The Hindu  

Two-thirds of private and public sector chief economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect a global recession in 2023, the Davos-organiser said on Monday as business and government leaders gathered for its annual meeting. "The current high inflation, low growth, high debt and high fragmentation environment reduces incentives for the investments needed to get back to growth and raise …

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy
1 year, 11 months ago

World Bank: Recession a looming threat for global economy

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — the United States, Europe and China — the World Bank warned on Tuesday. Though the United States might avoid a recession this year — the World Bank predicts the U.S. economy will eke out growth …

Global economy ‘perilously close’ to a recession: World Bank
1 year, 11 months ago

Global economy ‘perilously close’ to a recession: World Bank

Al Jazeera  

The global economy will come “perilously close” to a recession this year, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies – the United States, Europe and China – the World Bank warned on Tuesday. Though the United States might avoid a recession this year – the World Bank has predicted the US economy will eke out growth of …

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