CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Party more than candidate holds sway over voters
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Party more than candidate holds sway over voters

The Hindu  

The 2024 Lok Sabha election results, have once again drawn attention to the multifaceted diversity that the Indian political landscape represents. This discussion of party allegiance is important in view of the fact that half the voters decide their vote on the basis of party rather than the candidate or any other factor. Since the rise of Narendra Modi as leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, elections have assumed the characteristic of a presidential battle where voters are appealed in the name of the prime ministerial candidate. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 17% of voters considered the PM candidate as a crucial factor in deciding whom to vote for. Among voters who expressed a closeness to the NDA, nearly half considered the party itself as their main reason for voting, while only one in every 10 respondents cited the PM candidate as a deciding factor.

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History of this topic

The Alliance Takes Center Stage in Maharashtra Assembly Elections
1 month, 3 weeks ago

The Alliance Takes Center Stage in Maharashtra Assembly Elections

Hindustan Times  

The Mahayuti alliance has seen a significant shift in the recent assembly elections in Maharashtra, with several constituencies witnessing a swapping of candidates between the BJP, Shiv Sena, and the Nationalist Congress Party. This trend is a result of the political chaos in the state, where parties have split and ideological ranks have been broken in the pursuit of power. …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Clearing misconceptions about the post-poll survey
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Clearing misconceptions about the post-poll survey

The Hindu  

Over the last three days, we at Lokniti-CSDS have reported the findings of our post-poll survey, which have been published in these pages. On June 3, we reported the estimated vote share for different parties based on the post-poll survey data. This resulted in an automatic adjustment in vote share estimates though it was very marginal in case of our …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Modi as PM pitch did not cut much ice in Punjab
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Modi as PM pitch did not cut much ice in Punjab

The Hindu  

Punjab saw a multi-cornered contest and a keen electoral battle among key actors. Though both polled roughly equal votes, the Congress was more successful in terms of seats than the AAP with the Shiromani Akali Dal winning one seat and two going to Independents. The BJP seeking vote in the name of the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate did not cut …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: BJP faces minor challenges in Gujarat
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: BJP faces minor challenges in Gujarat

The Hindu  

Gujarat continues to be under the spell of the BJP. The BJP has a uniform and robust vote share both in rural and urban areas with almost two in every three voters supporting it but the Congress was able to register a slightly better support of voters from rural areas than in urban areas. Though as reported during the campaign, …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: NDA holds its ground in Bihar but vote share dips
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: NDA holds its ground in Bihar but vote share dips

The Hindu  

In a bipolar contest between the National Democratic Alliance and the Indian National Democratic, Inclusive Alliance in Bihar, the former performed quite well by securing about 47% of votes and 75% of seats. Its vote share dipped by six percentage points, which translated into a loss of nine seats. Though the vote share of the Opposition INDIA bloc rose by …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Why the BJP underperformed in U.P.
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Why the BJP underperformed in U.P.

The Hindu  

The INDIA coalition’s performance in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections has surprised everyone. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey data show that the general/upper caste Brahmin, Rajput, and Vaishya voters largely favoured the BJP, while the Other Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes and Muslim voters preferred the INDIA coalition. Yadav and Muslim voters consolidated in favour of the INDIA coalition along …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: The BJP’s pro-rich skew becomes moderate
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: The BJP’s pro-rich skew becomes moderate

The Hindu  

In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the gap between the poor and the rich with regard to their support for the BJP was very wide — that is, more among the rich and middle class voted for the BJP compared to the those belonging to the poor and lower class. The findings of the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey indicate …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: The three main takeaways
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: The three main takeaways

The Hindu  

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were unique. Subaltern reach First, the BJP somehow managed to protect its carefully nurtured constituency of voters — upper caste Hindus, OBCs, and Adivasis; as well as Dalits on a somewhat lower scale. For instance, the Hindu upper caste continued to support the party, though a small fraction also moved towards the Opposition. The BJP’s …

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Campaigns play key role in shaping choice
6 months, 2 weeks ago

CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey: Campaigns play key role in shaping choice

The Hindu  

In a democracy, electoral campaigns play a significant role in mobilizing the voters’ choices. Campaigning as a political strategy accomplishes three necessary tasks — it connects the parties and their leaders with the electorate; it introduces the voter to the party manifesto and candidate’s/party’s vision; and it builds a perception about who will win the election based on engagement with …

BJP’s Lok Sabha victory sparks tripolar shift in Kerala’s polity
6 months, 2 weeks ago

BJP’s Lok Sabha victory sparks tripolar shift in Kerala’s polity

The Hindu  

By winning a Lok Sabha seat for the first time and securing a vote share of almost 17%, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to have turned these polls into a tripolar polity in Kerala. Multiple factors may have contributed to Mr. Gopi’s victory, including his candidacy, the party’s effective campaigning using women activists, the defection of Congress leader Padmaja Venugopal …

India elections: Voters reject Modi’s vision for one-party state in win for competitive democracy
6 months, 2 weeks ago

India elections: Voters reject Modi’s vision for one-party state in win for competitive democracy

CNN  

CNN — The opposition obituaries had been written. The BJP’s inability to secure an outright majority “pricks the bubble of Modi’s authority,” wrote political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta Tuesday night. Modi is “not the indomitable vehicle for History … Today, he is just another politician, cut to size by the people.” ‘He will have to tread carefully’ Modi’s victory Tuesday …

J&K’s record voting of over 58% signals people’s trust in system
6 months, 3 weeks ago

J&K’s record voting of over 58% signals people’s trust in system

New Indian Express  

SRINAGAR: In the first major electoral exercise after Article 370 abrogation and bifurcation of erstwhile J&K state into two Union Territories, Jammu and Kashmir has recorded the combined poll percentage of 58.11% for the five parliamentary seats in the Union Territory, which is the record highest voter turnout in last 35 years. “The voter turnout in the polls this year …

CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey | Despite the economy, how is the BJP sitting pretty?
8 months, 1 week ago

CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey | Despite the economy, how is the BJP sitting pretty?

The Hindu  

Reports based on the pre-poll survey of the Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, published in these pages on April 11, focused on the factors that had the potential to work in favour of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha elections. But above all, the strengthening of Hindu identity and the BJP’s clear identification with the Ram Mandir issue …

CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey | Nepotism, Defections and Alliances: BJP need not worry about its realpolitik
8 months, 1 week ago

CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey | Nepotism, Defections and Alliances: BJP need not worry about its realpolitik

The Hindu  

Political leaders are often seen switching allegiances, leaving their parent parties to join others, in pursuit of personal or strategic interests. On the other hand, supporters of the BJP and those of its allied parties tend to view the party as less nepotistic than the Congress. A little less than half of the voters believe that the BJP should refrain …

BJP spruces up poll apparatus with major focus on Hindi belt
11 months, 2 weeks ago

BJP spruces up poll apparatus with major focus on Hindi belt

Deccan Chronicle  

New Delhi: With an eye on the forthcoming general election, the BJP has begun sprucing up its organisational apparatus. Responding to the agency's questionnaire, 38 per cent of voters in Chhattisgarh, 39 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and 51 per cent in Rajasthan seemed to be “fully satisfied” with the performance of the Modi government in the last five years. …

Lokniti-CSDS survey | How the Congress won an absolute majority in Karnataka
1 year, 7 months ago

Lokniti-CSDS survey | How the Congress won an absolute majority in Karnataka

The Hindu  

Since 1985, Karnataka has never voted back a ruling party. It is clear that the Congress received more or less uniform support across age groups, while the BJP drew greater support from younger voters. The Congress drew greater support as compared to the BJP from those with different educational achievements, except those who had a college degree — a section …

Lokniti-CSDS postpoll study 2023 Lessons for key parties from Tripura election
1 year, 9 months ago

Lokniti-CSDS postpoll study 2023 Lessons for key parties from Tripura election

The Hindu  

The pattern in the electoral outcomes in the States of the northeast, which went to the polls, appears similar in important ways. The beneficiary of this decline in vote and seat share of both the BJP-led alliance and the Left-Congress alliance has been the new player in State politics, the Tipra Motha, which secured close to 20% of the votes …

CSDS-Lokniti Survey | Is Modi’s charisma still driving voters?
2 years ago

CSDS-Lokniti Survey | Is Modi’s charisma still driving voters?

The Hindu  

Much of the discussion on the BJP’s spectacular victory in Gujarat has focused on the leadership factor. In 2017, it was often said that the victory was much more a victory of Mr. Modi than of the BJP. The Gujarat Governance Study, prior to the start of the campaign, showed the impact of Mr. Modi in the elections. When respondents …

CSDS-Lokniti survey on Gujarat | The leadership sweepstakes: a State election with national leaders as the face of their parties
2 years, 1 month ago

CSDS-Lokniti survey on Gujarat | The leadership sweepstakes: a State election with national leaders as the face of their parties

The Hindu  

In the recent past, the leadership factor has been a key role in determining the success of parties at both central and state level. A little over one-thirds of the respondents favoured Mr. Modi while two of every ten endorsed Mr. Kejriwal. Mr. Modi was ahead of Mr. Kejriwal in all demographic groups with the variation being a minimum of …

A new social core: The Hindu Editorial on the ideologically-affiliated voters of the BJP
2 years, 9 months ago

A new social core: The Hindu Editorial on the ideologically-affiliated voters of the BJP

The Hindu  

As the dust settles after the Assembly elections in the five States, Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has an unmistakably firm sway now over politics in the country. Data from the Lokniti survey show that across four States, while the Opposition parties garnered votes largely among the religious minorities, a substantial section among …

The Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti Punjab post-poll survey 2022
2 years, 9 months ago

The Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti Punjab post-poll survey 2022

The Hindu  

Even as the Punjab election verdict constitutes a clear rejection of the Congress State government by voters, it wasn’t just the Congress that the voters were angry with. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey in the State found dissatisfaction with the performance of the Narendra Modi government during the last three years to be nearly as high as the dissatisfaction with the …

The Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey 2022
2 years, 9 months ago

The Hindu-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey 2022

The Hindu  

The relatively high popularity of the Central government, the positive effects of welfare schemes and, in the case of Uttar Pradesh, a sharp religious polarisation led to the BJP’s victory in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Goa. These are the findings of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies-Lokniti’s post-poll survey conducted in these three States and Punjab, published exclusively …

Bihar bypolls: Jury out on Lalu’s impact
3 years, 1 month ago

Bihar bypolls: Jury out on Lalu’s impact

Hindustan Times  

Political observers in Bihar are divided over the impact an ailing Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad has been able to make on the results of the bypolls for two assembly seats in the state. In Kusheshwar Asthan, we have done very well despite contesting the seat after a long time,” said RJD’s Tejashwi Prasad Yadav. Experts believe Congress’s dismal …

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