2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted
2 years, 1 month ago

2023 US recession now expected to start later than predicted

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession sometime this year, the same proportion who said so in the NABE’s survey in December. The delay in the economists’ expectations of when a downturn will begin follows a series of government reports that have pointed to a still-robust economy even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times in a strenuous effort to slow growth and curb high inflation. Economic research released Friday found that the Fed has never managed to reduce inflation from the high levels it has recently reached without causing a recession.

Interest Rates Fed Rate Recession  2023  later  economy  survey  start  economists  interest  fed  begin  rate  predicted  business  think  recession  expected

History of this topic

How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in only 20 days
Trending News
3 weeks, 2 days ago

How the US economy went from booming to a recession scare in only 20 days

CNN  

New York CNN — Just 20 days ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs. On Monday, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN there’s a “real possibility” of a recession. ‘Deer in headlights’ moment for business Kelly said the economy and market are suffering from an “uncertainty tax” caused by questions about Trump’s tariffs, federal spending cuts …

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump
3 weeks, 2 days ago

Recession ahead? Why the US economy is on shaky ground under Trump

Firstpost  

The US economy is facing growing recession fears as key indicators signal trouble ahead. There’s going to be no recession in America.” Lutnick also defended Trump’s aggressive trade policies, arguing that they would ultimately benefit the US economy by “unleashing American wealth across the world.” What role do tariffs and spending cuts play? Goldman Sachs recently raised its recession probability …

Americans are getting fed up with the economy. Does that mean we’re heading into a recession?
1 month, 1 week ago

Americans are getting fed up with the economy. Does that mean we’re heading into a recession?

CNN  

Washington CNN — American consumers and businesses are feeling uneasy, fearing higher inflation is lurking around the corner as President Donald Trump talks massive tariffs. “If confidence continues to fall for another three months, and consumers actually pack it in, then game over.” Inflation fears, due to Trump’s tariffs, are putting America on edge, according to various surveys: Consumer confidence …

From recession to rate cuts: my six economic predictions for 2025
2 months, 3 weeks ago

From recession to rate cuts: my six economic predictions for 2025

The Independent  

I usually feel queasy when writing predictions for the year ahead. After all, the internet is forever and if you get it wrong there’s always someone to post a link on social media in a year’s time with the aggressive, but unoriginal, line: “This you?” But if economic forecasters, with their supercomputers, spreadsheets and master degrees from fancy institutions, can …

The Fed expects to cut rates more slowly in 2025. What that could mean for mortgages, debt and more
3 months, 1 week ago

The Fed expects to cut rates more slowly in 2025. What that could mean for mortgages, debt and more

LA Times  

Though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, it does influence them. “Because the upcoming Trump administration’s policies might cause a resurgence in inflation or otherwise throw the economy off balance, the Fed might choose to take a wait-and-see approach and hold rates steady at their January meeting.” Depending on the specific proposals the Trump administration manages to enact, the Fed …

Trump enters just as the Fed is shifting its focus
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Trump enters just as the Fed is shifting its focus

Live Mint  

With its second consecutive interest-rate cut this year, the Federal Reserve is attempting to boost the odds of a soft landing. Alternatively, any resurgence in inflation could force the Fed to stop cutting rates, raising the odds that the economy faces a hard landing later in Trump’s term. Due in part to the Fed cutting rates with a solid economy, …

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely
7 months, 3 weeks ago

A recession in America by 2024 looks likely

Live Mint  

Not long ago recessions seemed to strike America roughly once a decade. But because the world economy, asset markets and America’s politics are all fragile, it may yet have nasty and unpredictable consequences. An American recession would land another blow on vulnerable parts of the global economy by curbing demand for their exports. But after over a decade of cheap …

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means
7 months, 4 weeks ago

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

The Independent  

The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors …

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%
7 months, 4 weeks ago

Will US economy go into recession? Goldman economists lift ‘limited’ risk to 25%

Hindustan Times  

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%, but said there are several reasons not to fear a slump even after unemployment jumped. “We continue to see recession risk as limited,” the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Sunday. “The premise …

Buckle up: Wall Street’s shaky July could be a preview for more sharp swings
8 months ago

Buckle up: Wall Street’s shaky July could be a preview for more sharp swings

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — For more than a year, the U.S. stock market went in mostly one direction, up, and in mostly one manner, quietly. A bonanza around artificial-intelligence technology helped drive Big Tech stocks higher, while other areas of the market held up amid rising hopes for coming cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve. A measure of fear …

US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate
8 months, 1 week ago

US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The nation’s economy accelerated last quarter at a strong 2.8% annual pace, with consumers and businesses helping drive growth despite the pressure of continually high interest rates. The central bank’s favored inflation gauge rose at a 2.6% annual rate last quarter, down from 3.4% in the first quarter of the year. the Fed thinks that it’s getting close …

Powell stresses message that US job market is cooling, a possible signal of coming rate cut
8 months, 3 weeks ago

Powell stresses message that US job market is cooling, a possible signal of coming rate cut

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reinforced a message that the Fed is paying growing attention to a slowing job market and not only to taming inflation, a shift that signals it’s likely to begin cutting interest rates soon. “We also have an employment mandate.” On Tuesday, when Powell addressed the Senate Banking Committee, he suggested that …

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan
11 months, 4 weeks ago

Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

Hindustan Times  

US recession may have just been delayed to 2025, as per a recent note from JPMorgan's trading desk that highlighted the strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March that jumped over 50 for the first time since September 2022 which represents an expansion in manufacturing activity. The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid …

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate
1 year, 1 month ago

US economy grew solid 3.2% in fourth quarter, a slight downgrade from government's initial estimate

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The U.S. economy grew at …

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024
1 year, 1 month ago

Professional forecasters raise expectations for US economy in 2024

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — This year looks to be a much better one for the U.S. economy than business economists were forecasting just a few months ago, according to a survey released Monday. High rates put the brakes on the economy, such as by making mortgages and credit card bills more expensive, in hopes of starving inflation of its fuel. Professional …

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election
1 year, 1 month ago

UK fell into recession at the end of 2023 as economy takes center stage in runup to general election

Associated Press  

LONDON — The British economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, as output shrank more than anticipated in the final three months of the year, official figures showed Thursday. The quarterly decline followed a 0.1% fall in the previous three-month period and highlights how the economy has …

UK set to have slipped into recession at end of 2023
1 year, 1 month ago

UK set to have slipped into recession at end of 2023

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Ellie Henderson at Investec said: “Our base case is …

UK likely to have slipped into recession, experts say
1 year, 1 month ago

UK likely to have slipped into recession, experts say

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Experts have said that if confirmed, it would be …

US Fed key meet: All eyes on Jerome Powell's comments amid 2024 rate cut expectations
1 year, 2 months ago

US Fed key meet: All eyes on Jerome Powell's comments amid 2024 rate cut expectations

Hindustan Times  

The US Federal Reserve, which has spent nearly two years raising interest rates to combat inflation, will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, January 31. However, the Fed's decision on rate increase will be announced by the Chair of Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, in a press conference today at 2.30 pm ET. While the Federal Reserve forecasts three rate …

Federal Reserve signals that interest rate cuts aren’t imminent, leaving them unchanged for now
1 year, 2 months ago

Federal Reserve signals that interest rate cuts aren’t imminent, leaving them unchanged for now

LA Times  

Interest rate cuts are coming. “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting” to start cutting rates, Powell said at his news conference. The change in the Fed’s stance Wednesday comes as the economy is showing surprising durability after a series of 11 rate hikes helped drastically …

How the markets and the economy surprised investors and economists in 2023, by the numbers
1 year, 3 months ago

How the markets and the economy surprised investors and economists in 2023, by the numbers

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — In a year full of big numbers, with strong gains for stocks and even more fantastic flights for crypto, it was one shrinking number that superseded all. It’s still relatively high, particularly after the many years of low inflation that everyone enjoyed before U.S. inflation topped 9% two summers ago. For a while, the worry was even …

How the markets and the economy surprised investors and economists in 2023, by the numbers
1 year, 3 months ago

How the markets and the economy surprised investors and economists in 2023, by the numbers

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. For a while, the worry was even that the …

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year
1 year, 3 months ago

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year

NPR  

The Fed is probably done raising interest rates and could cut them next year Enlarge this image toggle caption Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images The Federal Reserve signaled it's probably done raising interest rates to curb inflation and the central bank could start cutting rates next year. "We're seeing inflation making real progress," Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters …

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum
1 year, 3 months ago

Market bets for 2024 thrown into chaos by US recession conundrum

The Hindu  

Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it. Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, now expects a U.S. recession in the first half of 2024, meaning the group is negative on the dollar and likes …

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?
1 year, 3 months ago

Banking CEOs warn of economic uncertainty: Is a US recession on the horizon?

Hindustan Times  

Wall Street is buzzing with concerns as top banking executives, including Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan, Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and Jane Fraser of Citigroup, testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Soaring inflation has plagued the nation, decreasing from 9 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in October 2023 but still exceeding the Fed's …

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession
1 year, 3 months ago

Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Most of the surveyed economists expect inflation to continue to slow in 2024, though many say it may not get all the way …

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
1 year, 4 months ago

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not

Live Mint  

Wall Street is gearing up for rate cuts. “You’re really talking about a distribution of outcomes that range between the Fed doing nothing next year to the Fed cutting aggressively next year,” said Rob Waldner, fixed income chief strategist at Invesco. Investors caution that it is still possible that the Fed doesn’t cut rates in 2024, potentially pushing bond yields …

UK economy in ‘horrible bind’ as recession looms, say experts
1 year, 5 months ago

UK economy in ‘horrible bind’ as recession looms, say experts

The Independent  

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox Get our free View from Westminster email Get our free View from Westminster email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The IFS said there was little room for the tax cuts wanted by Tory MPs …

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
1 year, 5 months ago

A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

Live Mint  

Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%. View Full Image “The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil …

Surprisingly durable US economy poses key question: Are we facing higher-for-longer interest rates?
1 year, 7 months ago

Surprisingly durable US economy poses key question: Are we facing higher-for-longer interest rates?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — A year ago, Chair Jerome Powell delivered a stark warning: To fight persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve would continue to sharply raise interest rates, bringing “some pain” in the form of job losses and weaker economic growth. Since Powell spoke at last summer’s annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the Fed has followed through, …

Surprisingly durable US economy poses key question: Are we facing higher-for-longer interest rates?
1 year, 7 months ago

Surprisingly durable US economy poses key question: Are we facing higher-for-longer interest rates?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy A year ago, Chair Jerome …

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon
1 year, 8 months ago

US leading indicators point to recession starting soon

India Today  

An index designed to track turns in US business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession. The Conference Board on Thursday said its Leading Economic Index, a measure that anticipates future economic activity, declined …

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?
1 year, 9 months ago

The temporary madness of modern politics: is our strongest market a harbinger of recession?

ABC  

Stephen Hawking, the scientific genius who solved some of the deepest secrets of our universe, summed up the fundamental problems facing modern economists. Rates and jobs part ways Not so long ago, in time before we were all sent home, the "natural rate" of unemployment was considered to be around 5 per cent. Inflation didn't immediately take off after Australia's …

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos
1 year, 10 months ago

UK ‘will fall into recession’ following bond market chaos

The Telegraph  

Britain will fall into recession by the end of this year or early next year, a top City investment chief has predicted, following the bond market turmoil. Luke Hickmore, investment director at asset manager Abrdn, said the "real surprise" of rising core inflation in Britain's economy would force the Bank of England into action on interest rates. Mr Hickmore told …

How to know if US economy is in recession?
1 year, 11 months ago

How to know if US economy is in recession?

Live Mint  

The growth rate of 1.1% of US economy in first quarter signaled recession in US has yet to arrive. Fed officials have made clear they're willing to tip the economy into a recession if necessary to defeat high inflation, and most economists believe them. Economists monitor changes in the interest payments, or yields, on different bonds for a recession signal …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 11 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The government’s report Thursday that the economy grew at a 1.1% annual rate last quarter signaled that one of the most-anticipated recessions in recent U.S. history has yet to arrive. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, when COVID-19 struck and 22 million …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
1 year, 11 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The economy's direction has confounded the Fed's policymakers and …

The banking crisis will tilt US into recession, say Fed economists
1 year, 11 months ago

The banking crisis will tilt US into recession, say Fed economists

CNN  

Washington, DC CNN — The fallout from the recent banking crisis is likely to push the US economy into a mild recession later this year, according to notes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting, released on Wednesday. Taking into account “the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments,” Fed economists’ “projection at the time of the March meeting …

Economy grew slightly to avoid recession, says revised official data
2 years ago

Economy grew slightly to avoid recession, says revised official data

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The UK’s economy grew slightly …

UK to avoid recession and inflation to drop to 2.9% by end of 2023 – OBR
2 years ago

UK to avoid recession and inflation to drop to 2.9% by end of 2023 – OBR

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy The UK economy is set …

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted
2 years, 1 month ago

2023 recession now expected to start later than predicted

LA Times  

Over the last year, the Federal Reserve has raised its key short-term rate eight times, causing many kinds of consumer and business loans, including auto loans, to become more expensive. A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a …

No recession in US in 2023 or 2024: Joe Biden's expert-defying/ denying claim
2 years, 1 month ago

No recession in US in 2023 or 2024: Joe Biden's expert-defying/ denying claim

Hindustan Times  

US president Joe Biden said that he did not believe the US economy will fall into recession in 2023 or even next year in 2024. Earlier, Joe Biden had said that a recession was possible in the US although he said this week that the risk was very low. The economic data for the past few months has been in …

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?
2 years, 2 months ago

How will we know if the US economy is in a recession?

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — The second consecutive quarter of economic growth that the government reported Thursday underscored that the nation isn’t in a recession despite high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fastest pace of interest rate hikes in four decades. The economy’s direction has confounded the Fed’s policymakers and many private economists ever since growth screeched to a halt in March 2020, …

US: Firms expect more job cuts in 2023 amid recession fears
2 years, 2 months ago

US: Firms expect more job cuts in 2023 amid recession fears

Deccan Chronicle  

New York: A survey of national economists found that more businesses now expect job reductions at their firms and to spend less on expansions for the first time since the pandemic, a sign that the Federal Reserve's push to raise interest rates is doing its job to slow the economy. But the survey shows that business owners are still concerned …

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism
2 years, 2 months ago

What recession? Consumers, businesses of this country signal optimism

Live Mint  

Real-time indicators and surveys point to the health of consumer spending and business investment. Make UK’s survey this week showed that manufacturers’ investment plans have held up in recent months, with executives planning to pump money into new products and energy efficiency. What’s really noticeable at the moment is confidence is as bad as the beginning of lockdown, yet the …

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises
2 years, 2 months ago

Can US avoid a recession? As inflation eases, optimism rises

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. On Thursday, the government is expected to issue another …

What’s in store for investors in 2023? 8 predictions to help you set right expectations
2 years, 3 months ago

What’s in store for investors in 2023? 8 predictions to help you set right expectations

Live Mint  

In 2022, equity investors had a difficult time. One event after another spooked market sentiments, whether it was the crypto currency crash, the Russia-Ukraine war, or inflation and higher interest rates. Here are our eight predictions for the coming year The rate of inflation would have either reached its zenith or begun to decline Inflation will start to decrease after …

2023 to be tougher for global economy than 2022, IMF chief says
2 years, 3 months ago

2023 to be tougher for global economy than 2022, IMF chief says

Al Jazeera  

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says one-third of world’s economies expected to be in recession this year. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said 2023 will be a “tough year”, with one-third of the world’s economies expected to be in recession. Because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously,” Georgieva said during an appearance on the …

World economy to experience recession in 2023, says Centre for Economics and Business Research
2 years, 3 months ago

World economy to experience recession in 2023, says Centre for Economics and Business Research

Firstpost  

The CEBR takes its base data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and uses an internal model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the world will experience a recession in 2023 as a result of rising borrowing prices intended to combat inflation. According to the British consultancy’s annual World Economic …

Discover Related