Ongoing flood threat to most of Australia shows La Niña weakening but not yet finished
1 year, 11 months ago

Ongoing flood threat to most of Australia shows La Niña weakening but not yet finished

ABC  

Recent headlines warning of El Niño's emergence in 2023 could be premature considering the major short-term weather threat to most of Australia is still rain and flooding. Key points: La Niña's weakening stalls, but it is expected to finally end in coming months Queensland and eastern NSW are entering peak flood season El Niño is possible later in 2023 The flood risk is especially high for Queensland and eastern NSW during the coming months, as La Niña and other rain-producing climate drivers coincide with the eastern seaboard's wettest time of year. La Niña, the Pacific cool phase, was showing signs of decaying in December as sea surface temperatures rose by a fraction of a degree, however the warming trend stalled during the past two weeks. La Niña increases the amount of moisture available for weather systems passing over eastern Australia to turn into rain, however due to the lag between changes in the ocean and atmosphere its demise will not immediately end the flood threat, especially considering the Pacific is not the only driver of Australia's weather patterns.

Australia Flood Pacific Eastern Queensland Nsw El Niño La Niña Niña Eastern Nsw Niño  threat  ocean  ongoing  australia  weather  el  pacific  niña  shows  flood  la  phase  niño  eastern  weakening  finished

History of this topic

First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia's south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action
5 days, 8 hours ago

First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia's south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action

ABC  

2025 is opening with a broad heatwave stretching through the heart of Australia, continuing a pattern of exceptional heat which included the nation's hottest spring on record, and third hottest December on record. Temperatures across south-east states are predicted to soar up to 12 degrees Celsius above the January average this weekend, raising the risk of major fire outbreaks in …

Extreme weather warning for Australia over the next three days
1 month ago

Extreme weather warning for Australia over the next three days

Daily Mail  

Extreme heat will continue to bake swathes of Australia as cold and wet fronts bring a soaking to the other side of the country. Severe thunderstorms and an incoming rain bomb are set to sweep the entire east coast, stretching all the way from Victoria through New South Wales, Queensland and up into northern Australia, according to the Bureau of …

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer
3 months, 1 week ago

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer

Daily Mail  

Meteorologists have warned there is a strong chance of La Niña forming ahead of summer and bringing heavy rain and flooding to Australia's east. Weatherzone's Joel Pippard said a 'clear La Niña signal' was emerging in the central Pacific Ocean in the form of a pool of cold water collecting about 150m below the surface. Meteorologists are warning there is …

Australia on track for fifth consecutive wet year as weekend brings further rain to southern states and flood threat to NSW coast
3 months, 1 week ago

Australia on track for fifth consecutive wet year as weekend brings further rain to southern states and flood threat to NSW coast

ABC  

Australia has experienced its wettest January-August since 2011, laying the platform for 2024 to become our fifth consecutive year with above-average rain — and potentially among the dampest ever. Flood risk for NSW north coast After a reliably dry start to the month, the past seven days brought a widespread soaking to Australia, culminating in heavy falls on the NSW …

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024

ABC  

There are growing signs Australia's most impactful climate driver, La Niña, will develop during the coming months. When the Pacific enters a La Niña state stronger trade winds pile up warmer water near Australia which increase cloud development and rain. Australia's 12 wettest years on record were all associated with La Niña, however most occurred during the stronger events, and …

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat
4 months, 1 week ago

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat

ABC  

It feels like the seasonal switch has already been flicked in the eastern states. "The temperature forecast is more confident, especially over northern Australia where there is a very high chance of above average temperatures," BOM climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua said. Most of tropical Australia and Tasmania are three to four times as likely to be "unusually warm" this spring than …

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024
7 months, 3 weeks ago

A La Niña Watch has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2024

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has officially moved to La Niña "watch", reflecting an increased chance the major climate driver, which helped bring flooding to eastern Australia in 2021 and 2022, will return later this year. La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and has helped deliver significant rainfall and flooding events to Australia in the …

Brazil Floods: 'State Of Emergency' Declared As Death Toll Reaches 56, Thousands Displaced
8 months ago

Brazil Floods: 'State Of Emergency' Declared As Death Toll Reaches 56, Thousands Displaced

ABP News  

At least 56 people were killed as torrential rains triggered devastating floods and mudslides across Brazil, compelling several residents to flee their homes, Al Jazeera reported citing government sources on Saturday. According to Brazil’s civil defence agency, escalating water levels in Rio Grande do Sul state are placing immense pressure on dams and posing a major threat to Porto Alegre, …

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency

ABC  

El Niño's demise and La Niña's emergence is gaining traction, increasing the odds Australia will face another lengthy period of above average rain and cooler temperatures by the back half of 2024. "A transition from El Niño to ENSO neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024," stated NOAA's latest diagnostic. Looking …

End of summer snapshot shows one of the warmest, wettest El Niño summers on record
10 months, 1 week ago

End of summer snapshot shows one of the warmest, wettest El Niño summers on record

ABC  

In short: Australia has wrapped up its third-hottest summer on record and third-wettest summer during an El Niño phase, the latest statistics from the Bureau of Meteorology show. Despite the increased rain, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's preliminary summer recap, Australia looks set to record its third warmest summer on record, behind 2018-19 and 2019-20, comparing all years back …

US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed
10 months, 4 weeks ago

US weather agency on La Niña watch but BOM says climate pattern not guaranteed

ABC  

In short: The US national weather agency has announced it is on watch for a possible La Niña later this year. Climate scientist Kim Reid says the likelihood of La Niña remains a "coin toss" What's next: Australia's Bureau of Meteorology will be looking for atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate La Niña is coming. La Niña, El Niño and …

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years
11 months, 1 week ago

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years

ABC  

Australia's most dominant climate driver, La Niña, has a strong chance of reappearing in 2024, shifting the odds to favour a wet year. Since 1950, La Niña years on average produced an increase in rain of 23 per cent, while El Niño years only brought a drop of 7 per cent, although south-east Australia observes a more significant dry swing …

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño

ABC  

From a parched, hot September and October — on the brink of extreme drought — to flooding rains in summer, the past few months have thrown up a range of weather extremes across the country. One of the likely reasons for this enhanced summer rainfall — particularly over the south-eastern states — is a driver known as the Southern Annular …

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states
1 year ago

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states

ABC  

Australian weather has always been prone to extremes, which is why the sunburnt country is known for its drought and flooding rains. "So when we know it's going to be an El Niño it changes that probability so the segment for dry conditions on that chocolate wheel is much larger, and the wet is smaller." "When we talk about dry …

Australia tourist towns brace for flash floods as Cyclone Jasper tears through
1 year ago

Australia tourist towns brace for flash floods as Cyclone Jasper tears through

Hindustan Times  

Residents of tourist towns in Australia's northeast on Thursday braced for flash flooding after Tropical Cyclone Jasper tore through the region, uprooting trees, leaving tens of thousands without power, and forcing evacuations and road closures. A tropical cyclone was building strength as it rolled towards northeastern Australia on December 13, with authorities warning "life-threatening" floods could swamp coastal regions for …

El Niño usually brings dry weather, so why have we just had weeks of heavy rain?
1 year, 1 month ago

El Niño usually brings dry weather, so why have we just had weeks of heavy rain?

ABC  

Last month, record daily rainfall totals fell across several parts of the New South Wales south coast and monthly totals were also above average for most of the NT and Queensland. Loading YouTube content Soaking end to dry spring The answer is no — El Niño is still underway in the Pacific and the phenomenon tends to bring hotter, drier …

Southern Australian states sizzle as Indian Ocean climate driver nears record strength
1 year, 2 months ago

Southern Australian states sizzle as Indian Ocean climate driver nears record strength

ABC  

One of the main drivers behind Australia's year-to-year rainfall and temperature variability is approaching record strength, second only to the peaks of 2019. While El Niño in the Pacific dominates the headlines due to its global influence, the Indian Ocean actually has a greater impact on Australia's weather during spring, and a pronounced shift in water temperatures to our west …

Flood and storm threat for southern Australia after record-hot and dry September weather
1 year, 3 months ago

Flood and storm threat for southern Australia after record-hot and dry September weather

ABC  

It's no exaggeration to suggest the prolonged unseasonable run of warm and dry weather is becoming concerning. NSW/ACT The next seven days will bring extreme weather to NSW, including near-record heat, extreme fire dangers, a southerly buster, strong winds, heavy rain and even snow. The change will stall before reaching northern NSW and hot northerly winds will return to the …

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat
1 year, 3 months ago

Ready for round two? El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole to deliver more spring heat

ABC  

Weather has dominated the headlines this week – an extraordinary period of September heat, and the official declaration of two major climate drivers. It was no coincidence record temperatures coincided with the arrival of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as Australia's extreme year-to-year weather variability is mostly the result of alternating phases of our surrounding oceans. Indeed, …

Understanding El Niño
1 year, 3 months ago

Understanding El Niño

ABC  

It was Peruvian fishermen, hundreds of years ago, who first noticed the unusually warm ocean currents that would appear in some years near South America, disrupting their fisheries and triggering heavy rainfall across the lands. In a normal year, trade winds blow relentlessly from east to west, pushing warm seawater and moisture-rich winds toward the west side of the Pacific, …

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
1 year, 3 months ago

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and summer. What future El Niño summers could look like Photo shows A globe centred on Australia showing sea surface temperature patterns in red and blue with a time scale …

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster
1 year, 3 months ago

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster

The Hindu  

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to …

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme
1 year, 4 months ago

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme

ABC  

El Niño in a changing climate The prospect of a possible El Niño summer, with the hot and dry conditions it's known for in Australia, can be frightening. Sea surface temperature data captured by satellites and buoys is used to determine whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase. CSIRO climate and natural hazards …

From drought and bushfires to hail storms and rain, how has El Niño impacted on Australia in the past?
1 year, 4 months ago

From drought and bushfires to hail storms and rain, how has El Niño impacted on Australia in the past?

ABC  

The likely onset of the El Niño climate driver has made headlines this year, raising concerns about a dry and hot spring and summer ahead for Australia. A look back at the 27 recorded El Niño events since 1902 shows the impacts have overwhelmingly had a dry influence on eastern Australia. Monash University climate scientist Ailie Gallant said the event …

Why a repeat of Black Summer is unlikely this fire season despite El Niño warnings
1 year, 5 months ago

Why a repeat of Black Summer is unlikely this fire season despite El Niño warnings

ABC  

Recent wildfires across the Mediterranean coupled with warnings of El Niño and Earth's hottest month on record have raised questions about what's ahead for Australia's bushfire season. After three years of La Niña rains suppressed bushfire activity, it's highly probable this spring and summer will be the most active fire season in four years. There are five major factors that …

How El Niño, climate change and warming oceans could combine to supercharge the world's weather
1 year, 5 months ago

How El Niño, climate change and warming oceans could combine to supercharge the world's weather

ABC  

As the calendar year ticked over to 2023, residents of Western Australia's Kimberley region were fleeing to higher ground as heavy downpours brought water levels to astonishing heights. "There's been a collective feeling of, 'Woah, that's insane' from myself and quite a few of my colleagues this year," Monash University associate professor Ailie Gallant said. A sign of what's to …

Farmers turn to climate scientists to help prepare for future weather as El Niño looms
1 year, 5 months ago

Farmers turn to climate scientists to help prepare for future weather as El Niño looms

ABC  

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially declare an El Niño, but food growers are already bracing for hotter, drier conditions ahead. Key points: A Queensland vegetable grower is consulting a leading climate scientist to prepare for future weather Australia remains on El Niño alert, with the US and UN weather agencies having already declared the event is underway …

We just had the world's hottest day on record, data shows — and experts say it's only going to get hotter
1 year, 6 months ago

We just had the world's hottest day on record, data shows — and experts say it's only going to get hotter

ABC  

Scientists told us it was close. Key points: Data from US scientists suggests this Tuesday was the world's hottest day on record Experts say heat records will continue to topple without urgent action on climate change Swathes of the northern hemisphere are currently experiencing heatwaves and record temperatures The average global temperature on Monday, July, 3 hit 17.01 degrees Celsius, …

World Meteorological Organization declares El Niño underway, increasing chance of record high global temperatures
1 year, 6 months ago

World Meteorological Organization declares El Niño underway, increasing chance of record high global temperatures

ABC  

The World Meteorological Organization has declared El Niño is now underway, increasing the likelihood of record high global temperatures and disruptive weather patterns over the next 12 months. Key points: The Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially declare El Niño is here Historically, El Niño brings below average rain and above average temperatures to Australia The last fully fledged …

US weather agency declares first El Niño in eight years is already underway
1 year, 7 months ago

US weather agency declares first El Niño in eight years is already underway

ABC  

Days after the Bureau of Meteorology issued an El Niño warning, its US equivalent has raised the stakes and declared the weather event is already underway. Source: NOAA The evolution to El Niño has been predicted by models since late 2022 and the event is almost guaranteed to become the first fully established Pacific warm episode in eight years. Sea …

Here comes El Nino: It’s early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world
1 year, 7 months ago

Here comes El Nino: It’s early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world

Associated Press  

An early bird El Nino has officially formed, likely to be strong, warp weather worldwide and give an already warming Earth an extra kick of natural heat, meteorologists announced. “The onset of El Nino has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background,” said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd. …

Here comes El Nino: It's early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world
1 year, 7 months ago

Here comes El Nino: It's early, likely to be big, sloppy and add even more heat to a warming world

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “The onset of El Nino has implications for placing …

El Nino under way, raising fears of extreme weather patterns
1 year, 7 months ago

El Nino under way, raising fears of extreme weather patterns

Al Jazeera  

US climate agency says phenomenon, which leads to warmer temperatures, is back after three years. The El Nino climate phenomenon has arrived and is likely to yield extreme weather later this year, including above average temperatures, scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have announced. Unlike the La Nina climate pattern, which often lowers global temperatures slightly and …

El Niño predictions differ between US and Australian forecast agencies. Who is right?
1 year, 7 months ago

El Niño predictions differ between US and Australian forecast agencies. Who is right?

ABC  

The US and Australia's chief forecasting agencies are projecting vastly different odds on the development of an El Niño climate pattern this year. Whereas the BOM requires both the ocean and the atmosphere to be showing signs of change before they upgrade the likelihood to an El Niño "alert", which means a 70 per cent chance. But, for the BOM …

How a potential 'extreme' El Niño climate pattern would affect Australia
1 year, 8 months ago

How a potential 'extreme' El Niño climate pattern would affect Australia

ABC  

The prospect of an El Niño climate pattern is looking increasingly likely as waters off South America's west coast warm, with some models even tipping conditions for an "extreme" event to occur. The Australian model even projects ocean temperatures in the Pacific could warm to a point indicative of an "extreme" El Niño — an event that can severely disrupt …

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia
1 year, 8 months ago

El Niño in 2023 becoming more likely, which would result in dry, warm weather across eastern Australia

ABC  

The first El Niño phase of the Pacific Ocean in eight years is becoming more likely in 2023, increasing the odds of drier and warmer weather across eastern Australia. While the Bureau of Meteorology's Pacific status is currently set at El Niño Watch, defined as about a 50 per cent chance of development, one US federal government department says the …

Science-wise: After Hottest Feb, Brace for Scorching Summer, Subpar Monsoon as El Nino Returns
1 year, 9 months ago

Science-wise: After Hottest Feb, Brace for Scorching Summer, Subpar Monsoon as El Nino Returns

News 18  

The meteorologists have sounded the alarm. After the hottest February on record, it has to now brace for a sweltering summer while waiting for the monsoon rains which are likely to begin under the shadow of a dominating climate system – El Nino. But another worry that looms large is the return of El Nino – a global ocean phenomenon …

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023
1 year, 9 months ago

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has simultaneously declared the end of La Niña and an El Niño Watch, indicating a potential rapid shift to hot, dry weather in 2023. Key points: The last Pacific warm phase, or El Niño, developed in 2015 It has a reputation for brining drought and bushfires Experts predict there is a 50 per cent chance of …

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over
1 year, 9 months ago

Australia can expect an El Niño weather pattern bringing extreme dry hot weather now La Niña is over

ABC  

After three years of floods and record rainfall in parts of eastern and northern Australia, La Niña is on the way out. Neutral years now resemble El Niño Last century Australia's worst droughts tended to coincide with El Niño. Australia's total rainfall in neutral years has been lower than El Nino years, a reversal of last century Australia's temperatures in …

La Niña’s three-year reign across Australia finally ends, promising drier, hotter weather
1 year, 9 months ago

La Niña’s three-year reign across Australia finally ends, promising drier, hotter weather

ABC  

After three years of dominating weather patterns around the globe, La Niña has now ended. La Niña — the cool phase of the eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically brings rain and floods to Australia on the ocean's warmer western edge — has been weakening for months, as evidenced by sea surface temperatures returning to normal along equatorial areas of the …

La Niña has ended and El Niño will form during hurricane season, forecasters say
1 year, 10 months ago

La Niña has ended and El Niño will form during hurricane season, forecasters say

CNN  

CNN — After three consecutive years of an unusually stubborn pattern, La Niña has officially ended and El Niño is on the way, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. https://t.co/5zlzaZ1aZx pic.twitter.com/dXOLGmOP7I — NWS Climate Prediction Center March 9, 2023 The prediction center also wrote its forecast now favors “El Niño forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the …

Fears drought could follow floods as BOM forecasts chance of El Niño arriving off back of La Niña
2 years ago

Fears drought could follow floods as BOM forecasts chance of El Niño arriving off back of La Niña

ABC  

Farmers across Australia are anxiously watching long-term climate forecasts, with fears a hot and dry El Niño system could back up the current flood-inducing La Niña. Key points: The BOM says there is a 40 per cent chance of an El Niño immediately following the La Niña Experts say it won't necessarily lead to drought, but hot and dry conditions …

Major floods and wild weather isolate towns across northern Australia as ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie maintains strength
2 years ago

Major floods and wild weather isolate towns across northern Australia as ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie maintains strength

ABC  

Roads have turned into rivers, cows are struggling to survive in fast flowing waters and boats have become the only form of transport in parts of the central Kimberley as ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie continues to batter Northern Australia. Key points: A flood warning has been issued for the Fitzroy River and West Kimberley District in WA Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ellie is …

Week-long drenching to worsen flood crisis across Australian eastern states
2 years, 2 months ago

Week-long drenching to worsen flood crisis across Australian eastern states

ABC  

A prolonged rain event across eastern Australia is likely to cause flooding rain from central Queensland to Tasmania this week. Key points: Sydney could be hit with more than 50mm of rain during the next seven days This week's rainfall could break October records in parts of eastern Australia Some towns around the source of the Murray-Darling River could be …

Australian floods could inundate or isolate 34,000 homes
2 years, 2 months ago

Australian floods could inundate or isolate 34,000 homes

The Hindu  

Around 34,000 homes could be inundated or isolated in Victoria state as a flood emergency continues across parts of Australia’s southeast, an official said Monday. Federal Emergency Management Minister Murray Watt said Victoria faced “some serious flooding” with more rain forecast for late this week. “It’s quite likely we’ll see a flood peak happen and waters recede, followed by another …

Floods inundate Australia as the country battles extreme weather
2 years, 2 months ago

Floods inundate Australia as the country battles extreme weather

Al Jazeera  

The deluge in Victoria, New South Wales and the island state of Tasmania comes six months after east coast flooding disaster killed 20 people. Areas of three southeastern states – Victoria, New South Wales and the island state of Tasmania – are under emergency flood warnings after an intense weather system this week brought more than a month’s worth of …

Heavy rain during La Niña triggers floods and evacuations in Australia’s southeast
2 years, 2 months ago

Heavy rain during La Niña triggers floods and evacuations in Australia’s southeast

LA Times  

A woman is rescued from floodwaters in Maribyrnong in northwest Melbourne, Australia, on Friday. “So this has only just started.” Andrews said 4,700 homes were without power, more than the 3,500 that the Victoria State Emergency Service had reported earlier Friday. North of Victoria, moderate to major flooding was occurring along several rivers in inland New South Wales state, home …

Spring weather brings heavy rains, indicators suggest east coast flooding likely this Australian summer
2 years, 2 months ago

Spring weather brings heavy rains, indicators suggest east coast flooding likely this Australian summer

ABC  

This is quickly becoming a year for the record books. Key points: This spring is on track for the top 10 wettest ever October has delivered incredibly high rainfall Flooding likely to hit the east coast of Australia over summer months While the 2020 and 2021 instalments of La Niña broke the south-east drought, the 2022 finale is building to …

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare
2 years, 3 months ago

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

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