2024 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Only 6 teams locked into wide-open field as February looms

The phrase “on the bubble” is believed to have originated with auto racing, particularly the Indianapolis 500, where the final day of qualifying is known as “Bump Day” or “Bubble Day,” and drivers in danger of getting bumped from the starting field by faster times are deemed “on the bubble.” By the late 1980s, the term caught on in college basketball circles ahead of NCAA Tournament selections, with bubbles getting popped by automatic-qualifying bid thieves or other bubble teams deemed worthy of a tourney invite. Big Ten Lock: Purdue Projected to be in: Illinois, Wisconsin On the bubble: Maryland, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State Spotlight on: Nebraska Resume at a glance: 15-6, 5-5 Big Ten; NET: 60, KenPom: 52, SOS: 66, Q1: 3-3 On the heels of a humbling road loss to Maryland last weekend, a massive three-game stretch looms for the Cornhuskers, with three straight Quad 1 games at home against Wisconsin then on the road at Illinois and Northwestern. Big 12 Lock: Houston Projected to be in: Baylor, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech On the bubble: Cincinnati, Kansas State, TCU, Texas, UCF Spotlight on: Kansas State Resume at a glance: 14-6, 4-3 Big 12; NET: 73, KenPom: 65, SOS: 59, Q1: 1-3 It’s getting spicy in the Big 12. Mountain West Projected to be in: Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State On the bubble: Boise State, Nevada Spotlight on: Boise State Resume at a glance: 14-6, 5-2 MWC; NET: 55, KenPom: 57, SOS: 30, Q1: 3-4 Boise State is the inverse of a team like Colorado, with NET and KenPom rankings dragging down near the cut line but a resume that looks like an NCAA Tournament team. Others Projected to be in: Dayton, Florida Atlantic On the bubble: Appalachian State, Drake, Grand Canyon, Gonzaga, Indiana State, McNeese State, Memphis, Princeton, Saint Mary's Spotlight on: Saint Mary’s and Indiana State Saint Mary’s resume at a glance: 16-6, 7-0 WCC; NET: 21, KenPom: 30, SOS: 113, Q1: 3-1 It was a brutal start to the season for the Gaels, limping to a 3-5 to start in December.