RBI Raises Inflation Forecast to 5.7% for FY23 from 4.5% earlier; Know Details
2 years, 9 months ago

RBI Raises Inflation Forecast to 5.7% for FY23 from 4.5% earlier; Know Details

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The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards its retail inflation forecast to 5.7 per cent for the current financial year 2022-23, as compared with the 4.5 per cent projected earlier. “Their pass-through to retail prices, therefore, warrants continuous monitoring and pro-active supply management.” Das stated, “Taking into account these factors and on the assumption of a normal monsoon in 2022 and average crude oil price of US $ 100 per barrel, inflation is now projected at 5.7 per cent in 2022-23, with Q1 at 6.3 per cent; Q2 at 5.8 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent; and Q4 at 5.1 per cent.” He said supply-side measures may alleviate food price pressures and also mitigate cost-push pressures across manufacturing and services. India Ratings Principal Economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said, “As expected, the RBI has revised its GDP forecast downward to 7.2 per cent and retrial inflation forecast upward to 5.7 per cent for FY23. Clearly, worsening of the geopolitical situation arising Russia Ukraine conflict and accompanying sanctions on Russia has been impacting the entire world, including India.” He added that under the current situation, where geopolitical situation and the global commodity prices are in a flus, “Ind-Ra believes the RBI has done the right thing to stay put on the policy rate and continue with the accommodative policy stance, but Ind-Ra also feel that there is a case of 50 bps increase in the policy rates in FY23 because even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, the global commodity prices are unlikely to revert to the pre-conflict level plus the supply-side disruption will take time to ease”.

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