We should pay attention to the Taiwan elections (the Russians certainly are)
The IndependentA reasonable argument can be made that every nationwide election has implications and consequences that transcend national borders. As in the US and France, the presidency is the more powerful institution but whoever becomes Taiwan’s next president could find their room for manoeuvre constrained, which could also afford China more opportunities for meddling. If Russia could invade its apparently much weaker neighbour just like that, might China be emboldened to act as precipitately against Taiwan? A third reason why the outcome of the Taiwan election could reverberate far beyond the immediate reason is what it might say, either now or in the immediate future, about US power. And this has raised the question of whether, if it came to it, the US would be capable of fighting, directly or indirectly, on three fronts: in Europe, for Ukraine against Russia; in the Middle East, for Israel against the various enemies ranged around its borders; and in Asia, for Taiwan against China.