Bureau of Meteorology summer forecast predicts wetter and warmer season fuelled by simmering oceans
1 month, 1 week ago

Bureau of Meteorology summer forecast predicts wetter and warmer season fuelled by simmering oceans

ABC  

Months of simmering ocean temperatures around the country are feeding into a forecast of a rainy and warm summer ahead, according to climate scientists. Instructions: Use left and right arrow keys to control image transition Before and after images SLIDE Rainfall in December is looking to be higher than normal, skewing the overall forecast of rainfall for the season as a whole / Summer on the whole is favoured to be wetter than normal for most, skewed by December's high rainfall chance As the season progresses, the rainfall settles to a more "neutral" summer rainfall outlook for most of Australia, according to Dr Chua. The Bureau's Dr Chua said the sea surface temperatures to the north-west of WA were forecast to start easing off from January which may explain why the rainfall outlook wasn't as strong from then on. AFAC's summer bushfire outlook shows increased fire risk for "large areas of Australia". "Northern Australia broadly received average to above average rainfall, but southern Australia received below average rainfall for the cool season and into spring," the outlook said.

Weather Australia Normal Rainfall Season Victoria Temperatures Western Australia Warm Bureau Oceans Outlook Warmer Dr Chapman Dr Chua Summer Forecast  warm  outlook  predicts  meteorology  warmer  australia  weather  simmering  rainfall  normal  oceans  wetter  fuelled  summer  forecast  season  temperatures

History of this topic

First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia's south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action
5 days, 7 hours ago

First heatwave of 2025 engulfs Australia's south-east while monsoon and cyclones mysteriously missing in action

ABC  

2025 is opening with a broad heatwave stretching through the heart of Australia, continuing a pattern of exceptional heat which included the nation's hottest spring on record, and third hottest December on record. Temperatures across south-east states are predicted to soar up to 12 degrees Celsius above the January average this weekend, raising the risk of major fire outbreaks in …

Severe thunderstorms forecast to hit south-eastern Australia as hot and humid weather takes hold
Trending News
1 month ago

Severe thunderstorms forecast to hit south-eastern Australia as hot and humid weather takes hold

ABC  

Thunderstorms are likely to hit Australia's south-east over the weekend as "very humid" weather normally felt in the Far North takes hold, the Bureau of Meteorology warns. Senior meteorologist Angus Hines said thunderstorms would develop on Friday afternoon in Victoria and northern Tasmania, as well as large parts of South Australia and New South Wales. Mr Hines said severe thunderstorms …

Extreme weather warning for Australia over the next three days
1 month ago

Extreme weather warning for Australia over the next three days

Daily Mail  

Extreme heat will continue to bake swathes of Australia as cold and wet fronts bring a soaking to the other side of the country. Severe thunderstorms and an incoming rain bomb are set to sweep the entire east coast, stretching all the way from Victoria through New South Wales, Queensland and up into northern Australia, according to the Bureau of …

More storms forecast for south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, bringing heavy rainfall and risk of flash flooding
1 month, 4 weeks ago

More storms forecast for south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, bringing heavy rainfall and risk of flash flooding

ABC  

Widespread storms are forecast for much of central and eastern Australia after south-east Queenslanders were treated to a spectacular lightning display last night. The Bureau of Meteorology is warning severe storms are likely in south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, and possible for Western Australia's interior, south-west parts of the Northern Territory and large parts of South Australia. Last …

The BOM weekend weather forecast has above-average temperatures in store for large parts of Australia
2 months, 1 week ago

The BOM weekend weather forecast has above-average temperatures in store for large parts of Australia

ABC  

Large parts of Australia are set for an early taste of summer starting this weekend, along with elevated fire danger, as a tongue of heat spreads across the country. "It will then cool down for a bit and then the next front will bring that heat back down again mid next week," Mr Narramore said. Capital city forecast summaries Melbourne: …

BOM and CSIRO State of the Climate report 2024 predicts more extreme weather as warming increases
2 months, 1 week ago

BOM and CSIRO State of the Climate report 2024 predicts more extreme weather as warming increases

ABC  

Overseeing Australia's two-yearly report card on the State of the Climate might seem like demoralising work, with the outlook heading in one direction – hotter, more extreme and more unpredictable. "I'm a bit like a doctor and I just have to say, 'hey, this is what's going on … You need to get to net zero as quickly as possible,'" …

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer
3 months, 1 week ago

Why Australians are being warned to prepare for a very wet summer

Daily Mail  

Meteorologists have warned there is a strong chance of La Niña forming ahead of summer and bringing heavy rain and flooding to Australia's east. Weatherzone's Joel Pippard said a 'clear La Niña signal' was emerging in the central Pacific Ocean in the form of a pool of cold water collecting about 150m below the surface. Meteorologists are warning there is …

Temperatures forecast to drop by up to 20 degrees in south-east Australia as icy winds and widespread rain replace warmer weather
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Temperatures forecast to drop by up to 20 degrees in south-east Australia as icy winds and widespread rain replace warmer weather

ABC  

A cold polar air mass surging across south-east Australia will drop temperatures by up to 20 degrees Celsius over 24 hours and bring another dump of snow to the ranges later this week. The system will also help a north-west cloudband bring widespread rain to every state and territory, after record September falls across north-west and central Australia over the …

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Latest modelling tips fourth La Niña for Australia in five years before the end of 2024

ABC  

There are growing signs Australia's most impactful climate driver, La Niña, will develop during the coming months. When the Pacific enters a La Niña state stronger trade winds pile up warmer water near Australia which increase cloud development and rain. Australia's 12 wettest years on record were all associated with La Niña, however most occurred during the stronger events, and …

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat
4 months, 1 week ago

Australia's spring weather forecast predicts above average temperatures after unseasonal winter heat

ABC  

It feels like the seasonal switch has already been flicked in the eastern states. "The temperature forecast is more confident, especially over northern Australia where there is a very high chance of above average temperatures," BOM climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua said. Most of tropical Australia and Tasmania are three to four times as likely to be "unusually warm" this spring than …

Victoria's autumn was warmer and drier than usual. Will it continue into the winter months?
7 months ago

Victoria's autumn was warmer and drier than usual. Will it continue into the winter months?

ABC  

It's the season of change. Melbourne scored just 8 per cent of its usual March rain due to only light rainfall over a total of six days. Although Seymour in the North Central district had its highest rain total on record for May, and several places, including Lancefield and Mansfield had record one-day May rainfall after a deluge on the …

BOM forecasts very warm winter for Australia, with the jury out on rainfall
7 months, 1 week ago

BOM forecasts very warm winter for Australia, with the jury out on rainfall

ABC  

Almost all of Australia, including the capital cities, is very likely to experience another "unusually warm" winter, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's official winter outlook. "And it's only really northern Australia showing any chance of unusually dry, but that's in the dry season so basically they get no rain anyway." Good winter rain is needed for Northcliffe dairy farmer …

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Odds of La Niña rise to 80 per cent according to US weather agency

ABC  

El Niño's demise and La Niña's emergence is gaining traction, increasing the odds Australia will face another lengthy period of above average rain and cooler temperatures by the back half of 2024. "A transition from El Niño to ENSO neutral is likely by April-June 2024, with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024," stated NOAA's latest diagnostic. Looking …

Record run of autumn hot weather for Sydney as waters simmer past cyclone threshold
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Record run of autumn hot weather for Sydney as waters simmer past cyclone threshold

ABC  

The start of autumn has delivered extraordinary heat to NSW, both over land and in the water. The warmth has reached record levels in Sydney, including an unprecedented run of days above 28 degrees Celsius and an offshore water temperature nudging 27C — warm enough for a tropical cyclone. The prolonged heat is due to a combination of factors including: …

South-east Australia to bake in near-record heat while cyclone threat returns to north
10 months ago

South-east Australia to bake in near-record heat while cyclone threat returns to north

ABC  

The calendar has rolled into autumn but Australia's weather still firmly resembles mid-summer, including the most intense autumn heatwave in decades across South Australia and Victoria. As the south-east sweats the country's north will be ducking for cover as a monsoon trough reforms, increasing rain and potentially spawning multiple tropical cyclones during the coming weeks. While March cyclones are common, …

End of summer snapshot shows one of the warmest, wettest El Niño summers on record
10 months, 1 week ago

End of summer snapshot shows one of the warmest, wettest El Niño summers on record

ABC  

In short: Australia has wrapped up its third-hottest summer on record and third-wettest summer during an El Niño phase, the latest statistics from the Bureau of Meteorology show. Despite the increased rain, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's preliminary summer recap, Australia looks set to record its third warmest summer on record, behind 2018-19 and 2019-20, comparing all years back …

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years
11 months, 1 week ago

Modelling indicates wet La Niña could be back in Australia for the fourth time in five years

ABC  

Australia's most dominant climate driver, La Niña, has a strong chance of reappearing in 2024, shifting the odds to favour a wet year. Since 1950, La Niña years on average produced an increase in rain of 23 per cent, while El Niño years only brought a drop of 7 per cent, although south-east Australia observes a more significant dry swing …

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño
11 months, 2 weeks ago

Here's what's been pulling the strings on Australia's weather recently — and it's not just El Niño

ABC  

From a parched, hot September and October — on the brink of extreme drought — to flooding rains in summer, the past few months have thrown up a range of weather extremes across the country. One of the likely reasons for this enhanced summer rainfall — particularly over the south-eastern states — is a driver known as the Southern Annular …

Bureau of Meteorology tipping a warmer-than-normal February in remaining summer outlook
11 months, 3 weeks ago

Bureau of Meteorology tipping a warmer-than-normal February in remaining summer outlook

ABC  

Halfway into summer, the season has thrown up a range of extremes across the country — from heavy rainfall and flooding, to a delayed monsoon in the north and extreme heatwaves in the west. Other regions — including much of western Western Australia and parts of Australia's tropics — have a lot of making up to do if they are …

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states
1 year ago

El Niño doesn't automatically mean it won't rain. Here's why it's been so wet and stormy for Australia's eastern states

ABC  

Australian weather has always been prone to extremes, which is why the sunburnt country is known for its drought and flooding rains. "So when we know it's going to be an El Niño it changes that probability so the segment for dry conditions on that chocolate wheel is much larger, and the wet is smaller." "When we talk about dry …

Severe new heatwave grips Australia's east coast as Aussies prepare for Christmas - what it will be like near you
1 year ago

Severe new heatwave grips Australia's east coast as Aussies prepare for Christmas - what it will be like near you

Daily Mail  

Millions of Australians have been told to prepare for a weekend of extreme weather with much of the country under heatwave warnings and 'life threatening' flash flooding a risk for north Queensland. Sydneysiders are likely to be heading to the beach in droves this weekend as temperatures are expected to near 40C while other parts of the state swelter through …

Bureau of Meteorology and AFAC summer outlook looks hot across all corners of Australia, with heightened fire risk
1 year, 1 month ago

Bureau of Meteorology and AFAC summer outlook looks hot across all corners of Australia, with heightened fire risk

ABC  

Australia is not off the hook for hot summer temperatures and a heightened bushfire risk, despite heavy rain currently falling across the east. Key points: Large parts of Queensland, New South Wales and the Northern Territory have an "increased risk of fire" this summer AFAC says the recent rains are welcome, but unlikely to undo the damage of a dry …

BOM forecasts week-long severe storm threat for Australia's east and north
1 year, 1 month ago

BOM forecasts week-long severe storm threat for Australia's east and north

ABC  

Storms carrying the risk of heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds are set to hit much of northern and eastern Australia this week while Western Australia bakes under a potential record-breaking November heatwave. Heavy rain has already begun to fall, with totals upward of 80 millimetres recorded on Queensland's Darling Downs region on Sunday and intense downpours through south-east …

Dangerous wind, heavy rain, flooding forecast to hit eastern Australia as intense storm system deepens
1 year, 3 months ago

Dangerous wind, heavy rain, flooding forecast to hit eastern Australia as intense storm system deepens

ABC  

Widespread rain and thunderstorms, carrying the risk of flash flooding, have begun pouring over parts of Victoria and New South Wales, as a low pressure system intensifies over the eastern states. Key points: Flood warnings are in place for parts of southern NSW and eastern Victoria following heavy rain Falls of 10mm to 50mm are forecast for parts of NSW …

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño
1 year, 3 months ago

Summer of severe heat predicted as Bureau of Meteorology declares El Niño

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared two major climate drivers linked to hot, dry conditions are officially underway in Australia, prompting further warnings that extreme heat could hit this spring and summer. What future El Niño summers could look like Photo shows A globe centred on Australia showing sea surface temperature patterns in red and blue with a time scale …

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster
1 year, 3 months ago

Over 95% chance of El Nino conditions from January-March 2024: U.S. forecaster

The Hindu  

There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions. El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, and can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to …

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme
1 year, 4 months ago

How climate change could be making El Niño more extreme

ABC  

El Niño in a changing climate The prospect of a possible El Niño summer, with the hot and dry conditions it's known for in Australia, can be frightening. Sea surface temperature data captured by satellites and buoys is used to determine whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phase. CSIRO climate and natural hazards …

Spring 2023: Meteorologists warn high temperatures and low rainfall will increase risk of bushfires
1 year, 4 months ago

Spring 2023: Meteorologists warn high temperatures and low rainfall will increase risk of bushfires

Daily Mail  

This spring is set to be dangerously dry and warm with meteorologists urging homeowners to start preparing for bushfires now. Weatherzone meteorologist Corine Brown said two differing weather events, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole affecting Australia's west and a largely-negative southern oscillation index affecting the east, will drive the drier weather. The Bureau of Meteorology has warned this spring will …

World Meteorological Organization declares El Niño underway, increasing chance of record high global temperatures
1 year, 6 months ago

World Meteorological Organization declares El Niño underway, increasing chance of record high global temperatures

ABC  

The World Meteorological Organization has declared El Niño is now underway, increasing the likelihood of record high global temperatures and disruptive weather patterns over the next 12 months. Key points: The Bureau of Meteorology is yet to officially declare El Niño is here Historically, El Niño brings below average rain and above average temperatures to Australia The last fully fledged …

El Niño forecasting a hard task during unpredictable autumn, climate scientists say
1 year, 8 months ago

El Niño forecasting a hard task during unpredictable autumn, climate scientists say

ABC  

Autumn's susceptibility to unpredictable weather has the likelihood of an El Niño hanging in the balance, according to climate scientists. Key points: Autumn is the toughest season for predicting El Niño and La Niña The Bureau of Meteorology has issued an El Niño Watch for 2023 A small, unexpected weather event during the season could stop it in its tracks …

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023
1 year, 9 months ago

An 'El Niño Watch' has been declared — here's what that could mean for Australia's weather in 2023

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has simultaneously declared the end of La Niña and an El Niño Watch, indicating a potential rapid shift to hot, dry weather in 2023. Key points: The last Pacific warm phase, or El Niño, developed in 2015 It has a reputation for brining drought and bushfires Experts predict there is a 50 per cent chance of …

The monsoon is set to arrive early this year, increasing the threat of more floods and cyclones
2 years, 1 month ago

The monsoon is set to arrive early this year, increasing the threat of more floods and cyclones

ABC  

The annual monsoon is on track for an early arrival this wet season, increasing the risk of flooding and tropical cyclones across northern Australia during the coming weeks. While northern Australia's wet season lasts from October to April, monsoon winds which originate north of the equator only blow intermittently from December to April, arriving as bursts of west-northwesterlies. Heavy rain …

BOM's severe weather outlook signals a summer of cyclones and floods
2 years, 2 months ago

BOM's severe weather outlook signals a summer of cyclones and floods

ABC  

After multiple years of flooding rains, people have had enough. Key points: The BOM's severe weather outlook warns of increased risk of tropical cyclones, tropical lows and widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia There is an elevated risk of grass fire in southern Australia Prolonged heatwaves are more likely in southern areas with higher humidity The outlook warns of …

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare
2 years, 3 months ago

Sydney beats 1950 rainfall record with 3 wet months to spare

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ …

BOM's winter summary finds season not as cold or wet as it felt, though yearly rainfall records could still fall
2 years, 4 months ago

BOM's winter summary finds season not as cold or wet as it felt, though yearly rainfall records could still fall

ABC  

It's the first day of spring and the BOM's winter data is in. Key points: Temperatures and rainfall were relatively close to the 1961 to 1990 average for the nation this winter Rainfall was above average for parts of the northern tropics through to central Queensland, the middle third of coastal NSW, and parts of Victoria and inland south-west WA …

Australia remains at La Niña alert amid near-record Indian Ocean Dipole event
2 years, 4 months ago

Australia remains at La Niña alert amid near-record Indian Ocean Dipole event

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has held off declaring a La Niña event in its latest Climate Driver Update, despite other countries around the world recognising La Niña to be already in effect. Key points: The US, Japan, India and other countries have already declared La Niña Australia still makes calculations based on average sea temperatures from the 1961-1990, which affects …

BOM's latest outlook signals soggy spring weather for eastern Australia
2 years, 4 months ago

BOM's latest outlook signals soggy spring weather for eastern Australia

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology's official outlook suggests we are heading towards a soggy spring for eastern Australia but relatively dry in the west. Key points: In a blow to flood-riddled communities, there is a strong chance of above median rainfall for much of eastern Australia this spring In contrast, spring rain is likely to be average to below average in …

BOM warns wet spring and summer could see more Queensland floods
2 years, 4 months ago

BOM warns wet spring and summer could see more Queensland floods

ABC  

Queenslanders are being warned to expect spring and summer conditions similar to the La Niña event that brought widespread flooding to parts of the state in February. Key points: The bushfire season is expected to be mild to moderate this year Meteorologist Laura Boekel says "quite a bit of flooding" is expected across Queensland Emergency services are urging people in …

BOM forecasts widespread rain along east coast as dry season rain streams in from Top End
2 years, 6 months ago

BOM forecasts widespread rain along east coast as dry season rain streams in from Top End

ABC  

Australia's east coast is set to receive a drenching this weekend as moisture streaming in from the tropics links up with a weather system from the south. Key points: The weather has been triggered by unseasonable rain across the Top End People in flood-affected regions are advised to be cautious but not concerned The rain is expected to begin in …

The Northern Territory is set for a proper dry spell, but warmer weather is predicted to return
2 years, 7 months ago

The Northern Territory is set for a proper dry spell, but warmer weather is predicted to return

ABC  

Cooler weather is on its way to the Top End, says the Bureau of Meteorology. Proper dry season weather is coming The Bureau of Meteorology says a cool and dry south-east surge will move into the Top End from Wednesday — bringing with it Darwin's first night below 20-degrees since September last year. Persistent cloud cover this dry season and …

WA's south-west is set for a dry winter and climate change is part of the reason
2 years, 7 months ago

WA's south-west is set for a dry winter and climate change is part of the reason

ABC  

As Australia's north and east gets set for a soaking-wet winter, the weather bureau's seasonal outlook shows WA's most populated region looking starkly different to the rest of the country. Key points: WA's South West Land Division is forecast to have a drier winter Warmer ocean temperatures are part of the reason Climate change models suggest drying will continue Instead …

BOM forecasts cool weather for south east with chance of snow in Tassie, but rain in the north
2 years, 8 months ago

BOM forecasts cool weather for south east with chance of snow in Tassie, but rain in the north

ABC  

As south-east Australia shivers and Tasmania expects snow as low as 800 metres, up where the bananas grow the long-awaited rain is coming — more than 400 millimetres of it. Key points: Temperatures are set to drop by as much as 6 degrees below average in the south east over the next few days From Thursday, onshore flow will bring …

Wet autumn outlook for parts of eastern Australia as the BOM predicts above average rainfall
2 years, 9 months ago

Wet autumn outlook for parts of eastern Australia as the BOM predicts above average rainfall

ABC  

For anyone looking for an end to the wet weather soaking Australia's east coast, the news isn't good — above average rainfall is set to continue. Key points: Above median rainfall is likely for northern and eastern Australia between April and June Australia is in its second consecutive La Niña year and a third isn't out of the question While …

BOM says south-east Queensland wind change brings possibility of more storms, wild weather
2 years, 10 months ago

BOM says south-east Queensland wind change brings possibility of more storms, wild weather

ABC  

More severe thunderstorms are expected to hit south-east Queensland on Wednesday. Key points: The wind change creates atmospheric instability Flash flooding and river level rises are possible After the storms will come cooler temperatures The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting storm activity to start late Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Senior meteorologist Laura Boekel said while flash flooding and …

BOM summer outlook: It will pay to check for floods before setting out this summer
3 years, 1 month ago

BOM summer outlook: It will pay to check for floods before setting out this summer

ABC  

Thanks to the La Niña, finally announced on Tuesday, conditions are expected to be wetter than average for parts of the east coast this summer, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's official summer outlook. "Spring has been wetter than normal and, as a result, soil moisture is high, water storages are full, and we've seen flooding in some areas," says …

BOM forecasts a warm, wet spring for Australia's east
3 years, 4 months ago

BOM forecasts a warm, wet spring for Australia's east

ABC  

Spring is set to be wet and warm in eastern Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal outlook. Key points: Spring rainfall is likely to be above average in much of the east Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for the northern tropics and far south-east Large parts of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean are warmer than …

BOM warns to brace for wintry week of wind, rain and snow
3 years, 7 months ago

BOM warns to brace for wintry week of wind, rain and snow

ABC  

If you have any winter clothes left in the cupboard, it is time to get them out. Key points: Temperatures expected to be 4 to 8 degrees below average, but wind chill will really make things feel Antarctic Adelaide, Melbourne & Hobart will feel it Tue-Wed; Canberra, Sydney & Brisbane will shiver most on Wed-Thu Not to be left out, …

'Autumn predictability barrier' means April is the toughest month to make climate forecasts
3 years, 9 months ago

'Autumn predictability barrier' means April is the toughest month to make climate forecasts

ABC  

After the recent record rain and the previous summer's record dry, what does this winter's climate have in store? Key points: Autumn is the most difficult season to make long-term climate forecasts The main climate drivers are often in neutral in autumn Seasonal forecasts become more accurate as climate drivers become clearer in winter The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting …

BOM declares La Niña over – but that doesn't mean the rain is done
3 years, 9 months ago

BOM declares La Niña over – but that doesn't mean the rain is done

ABC  

The Bureau of Meteorology has reset the El Niño Southern Oscillation outlook to inactive, meaning the 2020-21 La Niña is over. Key points: After a wet few months, the BOM officially declares the La Niña over Conditions over the Pacific Ocean are expected to return to neutral for the next few months But wetter-than-average conditions are still expected for the …

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